Electricity Theft Detection Using Rule-Based Machine Leaning (rML) Approach

Abstract

Since electricity theft affects non-technical losses (NTLs) in power distribution systems, power companies are genuinely quite concerned about it. Power companies can use the information gathered by Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) to create data-driven, machine learning-based approaches for Electricity Theft Detection (ETD) in order to solve this problem. The majority of data-driven methods for detecting power theft do take usage trends into account while doing their analyses. Even though consumption-based models have been applied extensively to the detection of power theft, it can be difficult to reliably identify theft instances based only on patterns of usage. In this paper, a novel rule-based combined machine learning (rML) technique is developed for power theft detection to address the drawbacks of systems that rely just on consumption patterns. This approach makes use of the load profiles of energy users to establish rules, identify the rule or rules that apply to certain situations, and classify the cases as either legitimate or fraudulent. The UEDAS smart business power consumption dataset's real-world data is used to assess the performance of the suggested technique. Our technique is an innovation in theft detection that combines years of intensive theft tracking with the use of rule-based systems as feature spaces for traditional machine learning models. With an astounding 93% recall rate for the rule-based feature space combination of the random forest classifier, this novel approach has produced outstanding results. The acquired results show a noteworthy accomplishment in the field of fraud detection, successfully detecting fraudulent consumers 77% of the time during on-site examination.

Keywords

• electricity theft dedection
• non-technical losses
• advanced metering infrastructure
• machine learning

Supporting Institution

This study was conducted as a part of the project titled “Technical and Non-Technical Losses Estimation and Warning System for Transformers and Subscribers” with the project number 7210765 and supported by TÜBİTAK.

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