Central Asian Regional Security After the Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan

Year 2022, , 147 - 180, 31.08.2022

Rüştü Kaya , Erdal Bayar

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1112793

Cited By: 2

Abstract

This study seeks to answer the puzzle of how the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover will affect Central Asian regional security relations in the forthcoming period. Security threats originating from Afghanistan were among the most important security problems of the newly independent Central Asian states during the 1990s. After the end of the twenty-year military presence of the US in Afghanistan as of September 2021, the Taliban’s takeover of power brought forth the potential of Afghanistan-based instability in Central Asia again. In this article, the first Taliban rule during the 1990s and the second one that has begun since the Taliban takeover as of August 2021 are examined in terms of their impacts on Central Asian security relations through the comparative method. It is discussed within the framework of the securitization approach whether the security problems arising from Afghanistan are real security threats for the Central Asian states and the potential of these problems to be instrumentalized by both regional states and actors such as Russia and China. Through the comparative case analysis method and based on the analysis of primary and secondary sources, the article comes up with the following three main findings: Compared to the 1990s, Central Asian states, except Tajikistan, have less securitized the second Taliban rule in Afghanistan and they reacted to the Taliban takeover more confidently. Although not coming directly from the Taliban, threats originating from other radical religious organizations in Afghanistan such as the Islamic State-Khorasan pose to a certain degree real security risks for the regional states, especially for those bordering Afghanistan. The threat perception originating from Afghanistan has the potential to be securitized and instrumentalized in such a way as to help the governments in the countries of the region maintain their own power and states such as Russia and China increase their influence on the regional countries, especially in regional security relations.

Keywords

Afghanistan, Regional Security, Securitization, Central Asia, Taliban

Afganistan'da Taliban İktidarı Sonrası Orta Asya Bölgesel Güvenliği

Abstract

Bu çalışma ABD’nin Afganistan’dan çekilmesi ve Taliban’ın iktidarı ele geçirmesinin önümüzdeki süreçte Orta Asya bölgesel güvenlik ilişkilerini nasıl etkileyeceği sorusuna cevap aramaktadır. Afganistan kaynaklı güvenlik tehditleri doksanlı yıllar boyunca yeni bağımsız Orta Asya devletlerinin en önemli güvenlik sorunları arasında yer almıştır. 2021 Ağustos ayı itibariyle ABD’nin Afganistan’daki yirmi yıllık askerî varlığını sona erdirmesinin ardından Taliban’ın tekrar yönetime hâkim olması Orta Asya’da Afganistan kaynaklı istikrarsızlık potansiyelini yeniden gündeme getirmiştir. Bu makalede Orta Asya bölgesel güvenlik ilişkilerine etkisi bakımından doksanlı yıllardaki birinci Taliban iktidarı dönemi ile 2021 yılı Ağustos ayı sonrası Taliban’ın yönetime tekrar hâkim olması ile birlikte başlayan ikinci Taliban dönemi karşılaştırmalı yöntemle incelenmektedir. Afganistan’dan kaynaklanan güvenlik sorunlarının Orta Asya devletleri için gerçek bir güvenlik tehdidi olup olmadığı ve gerek bölge devletleri gerek de Rusya ve Çin gibi aktörler tarafından bu sorunların araçsallaştırılma potansiyeli güvenlikleştirme yaklaşımı çerçevesinde tartışılmaktadır. Karşılaştırmalı vaka analizi yöntemiyle, birincil ve ikincil kaynakların betimsel analizine dayanarak makalede şu üç temel bulguya ulaşılmıştır: Doksanlı yıllara kıyasla, Tacikistan dışındaki Orta Asya devletlerinin Afganistan’daki ikinci Taliban iktidarını daha az güvenlikleştirdikleri ve Taliban’ın iktidarı ele geçirmesini daha özgüvenli bir şekilde karşıladıkları görülmektedir. Doğrudan Taliban’dan olmasa da, Horasan İslam Devleti gibi Afganistan’daki diğer radikal dini örgütlerden kaynaklanabilecek tehditler özellikle de Afganistan’a sınırı olan bölge ülkeleri için belli ölçüde somut güvenlik riskleri oluşturmaktadır. Afganistan kaynaklı tehdit algısının hem bölge ülkelerindeki yönetimlerin kendi iktidarlarını korumasına, hem de Rusya ve Çin gibi devletlerin başta bölgesel güvenlik ilişkilerinde olmak üzere bölge ülkeleri üzerindeki etkisinin artmasına yardım edecek şekilde güvenlikleştirilerek araçsallaştırılma potansiyeli bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Afganistan, Bölgesel Güvenlik, Güvenlikleştirme, Orta Asya, Taliban

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