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An Assessment on NATO’s Defence and Deterrence Studies

Year 2022, Volume: 18 Issue: 42, 323 - 346, 26.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1022322

Abstract

NATO developed its last concept for deterrence and defence in 1967 to address potential military conflict with the Soviet Union. At the end of the Cold War, the Alliance shifted from its main concept of guiding deterrence and defence actions to supporting military reaction towards various forms of instability. Bases of instability at the time included terrorism, reform problems in post-Soviet Russia, nationalism, authoritarianism, ethnic, sectarian, and local conflicts, economic destabilization, natural disasters, and civil wars. Consequently, Alliance’s responses to instability since 1991 were various, each addressing a specific challenge on a case-by-case basis. Instability continues to be persistent and diverse and holds risks for damaging Allies’ security. Nowadays, instability continues to risk the security of widely different subjects. Two forms of instability identified in the early 1990s, which are Russia and Terror Groups, have emerged as challenges on a strategic scale with aims and patterns that can weaken and threaten the security of an Ally, a group of Allies, or the Alliance as a whole. These two challenges are strategic in terms of geographic scale and the impact they have on their targets, considering the possible risks they will create for the security of the Alliance and their ability to persist in the long term. A new Euro-Atlantic Area Defence and Deterrence Concept Paper is needed to counter these security risks within NATO’s strategic scope and 360-degree range and support the implementation of the Alliance’s three main tasks: collective defence, crisis response, and security cooperation. In this research, NATO’s latest deterrence and defence studies, which have started to be updated in parallel with the changing security environment, will be analysed.

References

  • Kitaplar Alexander L. George ve Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice, Columbia University Press, New York 1974.
  • Andrew R. Morral ve Brian A. Jackson, “Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security”, Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2009.
  • Anthony H. Cordesman, “NATO and the Delicate Balance of Deterrence: Strategy versus Burden Sharing”, CSIC Center for Startegic&International Studies, Şubat 2017.
  • Glen H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense: Toward a Theory of National Security, Princeton University Press London, 1961. John J Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence, Cornell University Press, New York 1983.
  • Lawrence Freedman, Deterrence, Cambridge Polity Press, 2004.
  • Paul K. Huth, Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War, Yale University Press,1988.
  • Sten Rynning, “Deterrence Rediscovered: NATO and Russia”, Frans Osinga ve Tim Sweijs, (ed.), Deterrence in the 21st Century; Insights from Theory and Practice, Asser Press by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2020, 29-47.
  • Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, New Haven 1966
  • Trine Flockhart vd, Liberal Order in a Post-Western World, Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC., Mayıs 2014.
  • Makaleler Benjamin Schreer, “Trump, NATO and he Future of Europe’s Defence”, The RUSI Journal 164.
  • Dmitry Adamsky, “From Moscow With Coercion: Russian Deterrence Theory and Strategic Culture”, Journal of Strategic Studies 41, 2018.
  • Frans-Paul van der Putten, vd., “Deterrence as a Security Concept Against Non-Traditional Threats”, Netherlands Institute of International Relations In-depth study Clingendael Monitor June 2015.
  • Jeffrey Knopf, “The Fourth Wave in Deterrence Research”, Contemporary Security Policy 31 (2010) 1.
  • John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crises is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusion that Provoked Putin”, Foreign Affairs, 93(5).
  • Łukasz ve Kulesa Thomas Frear, Deterrence NATO’s Evolving Modern Deterrence Posture: Challenges and Risks, European Leadership Network (ELN) Issue Brief, Mayıs 2017.
  • Nina Slove, “Beyond the Buzzword: The Thre Meanings of Grand Strategy”, Security Studies 27, 2018.
  • Stephen Brooks ve William C. Wohlforth, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position”, International Security 40:3, 2015/16.
  • Steven Keil, Heinrich Brauß, ve Elisabeth Braw W, “Next Steps in NATO Deterrence and Resilience”, The German Marshall Fund of the United States Policy Paper, Haziran 2021.
  • Tom Rostoks ve Nora Vanaga, “Deterring Russia in the Baltic Sea Region: Latvia’s Defence Developments in Regional Context”, Friedrich Ebert Shiftung FES Analysis, 2017,
  • İnternet Kaynakları Frantzen A. Henning, “Hybrid Deterrence”, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (2020), s. 1, https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep25796, (Erişim tarihi: 12.10.2021)
  • Jen Judson, https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2019/10/11/fighting-the-bureaucracy-for-nato-the-defender-2020-exercise-in-europe-will-test-interoperability/, (Erişim tarihi: 06.10.2021)
  • NATO 2014 Galler Zirvesi Deklarasyonu, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/naohq/official_texts_112964.htm, (Erişim tarihi: 04.10.2021)
  • NATO Genel Sekreterinin konuşması, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_176197.htm, (Erişim tarihi 28.09.2021)
  • NATO 2019 Londra Deklarasyonu, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/naohq/official_texts_171584.htm, (Erişim tarihi: 01.10.2021)
  • NATO 2030; United for a New Era, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf, (Erişim tarihi 28.09.2021)
  • NATO web sayfası, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_133127.htm, (Erişim tarihi: 17.10.2021)
  • NATO Belgeleri NATO Public Diplomacy Division, NATO Summit Guide, Varşova, 8-9 Temmuz 2016.
  • NATO Public Diplomacy Division, NATO Summit Guide, Brussels, 11-12 Temmuz 2018.

NATO’nun Savunma ve Caydırıcılık Çalışmaları ile İlgili Bir Değerlendirme

Year 2022, Volume: 18 Issue: 42, 323 - 346, 26.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1022322

Abstract

NATO’nun en son geliştirdiği Savunma ve Caydırıcılık Konsept Belgesi 1967 yılında Sovyetler Birliği ile potansiyel bir askerî çatışma hedef alınarak hazırlanmış ve uygulanmış, ancak Soğuk Savaşın sona ermesi ile İttifak bu kapsamdaki karşılık verme konseptini farklı alanlardaki istikrarsızlık olasılıklarına karşı askerî alanda süratle tepki gösterebilme olarak değiştirmiştir. İstikrarsızlık kaynağı olan konular ise terörizm, milliyetçilik, otoriter rejimler, etnik karşıtlıklar, bölgesel çatışmalar, ekonomik istikrarsızlık, doğal afetler ve iç savaşlar ile, Sovyetler Birliğinden sonra Rusya’da gerçekleşen reformlarda yaşanan geri dönüşler şeklinde belirlenmiştir. Günümüzde de istikrarsızlık farklı konularda yaygın olarak İttifak’ın güvenliğine risk oluşturmaya devam etmektedir. Yapılan değerlendirmelere göre 1990’ların başında bir İttifak üyesine ya da İttifak’ın tamamına stratejik ölçekte güvenlik tehdidi oluşturan iki istikrarsızlık kaynağı belirlenmiştir. Bunlar; Rusya ve terördür. Coğrafi bağlamda olduğu kadar hedeflerinde sebep oldukları etki ile, İttifakın güvenliğine yaratacakları muhtemel riskler ve uzun vadede devamlılık gösterme yetenekleri değerlendirildiğinde, bu iki istikrarsızlık formunun stratejik olduğu kabul edilmektedir. NATO’nun stratejik kapsamda ve 360 derecelik çevresindeki alanda oluşan bu güvenlik risklerine tedbir getirecek şekilde ve İttifak’ın üç temel görevi olan kolektif savunma, krizlere cevap verme güvenlik iş birliği konularının uygulanmasını da destekleyecek yeni bir Avrupa Atlantik Bölgesi Savunma ve Caydırıcılık Konsept Belgesine ihtiyaç bulunmaktadır. Bu makalede, NATO’nun değişen güvenlik ortamına uygun olarak güncellenmekte olan Savunma ve Caydırıcılık çalışmaları incelenecektir.

References

  • Kitaplar Alexander L. George ve Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice, Columbia University Press, New York 1974.
  • Andrew R. Morral ve Brian A. Jackson, “Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security”, Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2009.
  • Anthony H. Cordesman, “NATO and the Delicate Balance of Deterrence: Strategy versus Burden Sharing”, CSIC Center for Startegic&International Studies, Şubat 2017.
  • Glen H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense: Toward a Theory of National Security, Princeton University Press London, 1961. John J Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence, Cornell University Press, New York 1983.
  • Lawrence Freedman, Deterrence, Cambridge Polity Press, 2004.
  • Paul K. Huth, Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War, Yale University Press,1988.
  • Sten Rynning, “Deterrence Rediscovered: NATO and Russia”, Frans Osinga ve Tim Sweijs, (ed.), Deterrence in the 21st Century; Insights from Theory and Practice, Asser Press by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2020, 29-47.
  • Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, New Haven 1966
  • Trine Flockhart vd, Liberal Order in a Post-Western World, Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC., Mayıs 2014.
  • Makaleler Benjamin Schreer, “Trump, NATO and he Future of Europe’s Defence”, The RUSI Journal 164.
  • Dmitry Adamsky, “From Moscow With Coercion: Russian Deterrence Theory and Strategic Culture”, Journal of Strategic Studies 41, 2018.
  • Frans-Paul van der Putten, vd., “Deterrence as a Security Concept Against Non-Traditional Threats”, Netherlands Institute of International Relations In-depth study Clingendael Monitor June 2015.
  • Jeffrey Knopf, “The Fourth Wave in Deterrence Research”, Contemporary Security Policy 31 (2010) 1.
  • John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crises is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusion that Provoked Putin”, Foreign Affairs, 93(5).
  • Łukasz ve Kulesa Thomas Frear, Deterrence NATO’s Evolving Modern Deterrence Posture: Challenges and Risks, European Leadership Network (ELN) Issue Brief, Mayıs 2017.
  • Nina Slove, “Beyond the Buzzword: The Thre Meanings of Grand Strategy”, Security Studies 27, 2018.
  • Stephen Brooks ve William C. Wohlforth, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position”, International Security 40:3, 2015/16.
  • Steven Keil, Heinrich Brauß, ve Elisabeth Braw W, “Next Steps in NATO Deterrence and Resilience”, The German Marshall Fund of the United States Policy Paper, Haziran 2021.
  • Tom Rostoks ve Nora Vanaga, “Deterring Russia in the Baltic Sea Region: Latvia’s Defence Developments in Regional Context”, Friedrich Ebert Shiftung FES Analysis, 2017,
  • İnternet Kaynakları Frantzen A. Henning, “Hybrid Deterrence”, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (2020), s. 1, https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep25796, (Erişim tarihi: 12.10.2021)
  • Jen Judson, https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2019/10/11/fighting-the-bureaucracy-for-nato-the-defender-2020-exercise-in-europe-will-test-interoperability/, (Erişim tarihi: 06.10.2021)
  • NATO 2014 Galler Zirvesi Deklarasyonu, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/naohq/official_texts_112964.htm, (Erişim tarihi: 04.10.2021)
  • NATO Genel Sekreterinin konuşması, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_176197.htm, (Erişim tarihi 28.09.2021)
  • NATO 2019 Londra Deklarasyonu, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/naohq/official_texts_171584.htm, (Erişim tarihi: 01.10.2021)
  • NATO 2030; United for a New Era, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf, (Erişim tarihi 28.09.2021)
  • NATO web sayfası, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_133127.htm, (Erişim tarihi: 17.10.2021)
  • NATO Belgeleri NATO Public Diplomacy Division, NATO Summit Guide, Varşova, 8-9 Temmuz 2016.
  • NATO Public Diplomacy Division, NATO Summit Guide, Brussels, 11-12 Temmuz 2018.
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Savas Bıcer 0000-0001-6318-9814

Publication Date August 26, 2022
Submission Date November 11, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 18 Issue: 42

Cite

Chicago Bıcer, Savas. “NATO’nun Savunma Ve Caydırıcılık Çalışmaları Ile İlgili Bir Değerlendirme”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 18, no. 42 (August 2022): 323-46. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1022322.