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Year 2015, Volume: 11 Issue: 21, 87 - 117, 11.05.2015

Abstract

This present study emphasized that use of scientific methods in intelligence analysis is a necessity of today. To be able to illustrate the development of intelligence analysis, the study examines the development of US intelligence agencies in the history. It is understood from the study that, after various intelligence failure in the US, the capabilities of intelligence analysis were questioned and it is figured out that development of capabilities of intelligence analysis is vital and use of scientific techniques is a necessity. From this perspective, this study tells what these scientific methods are and how they can be implemented, so that a model can be developed for the practitioners in the field. It is also emphasized that, in order to be able to boost the capacity of intelligence analysis, intelligence organizations hire academicians, besides teaching their scientific methods to their analysts

References

  • Kitaplar AGRELL Wilhelm, Essence of Assessment: Methods and Problems of Intelligence Analysis, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS)/National Defence College, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012.
  • BRUCE James B., Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epistemology Matters to Intelligence, in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (eds. Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce) Washington, Georgetown University Press. CLARK Robert M., Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach. [4th Edition], CQ Press/Sage, Washington, DC, 2012.
  • COLBY William and FORBATH Peter, Honorable Men: My Life in the CIA, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1978.
  • FISHER Rebecca and JOHNSTON Rob, Is Intelligence Analysis a Discipline? in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce eds.) Washington, Georgetown University Press, s. 2008.
  • FOLKER Robert D. Jr., Intelligence analysis in theater joint intelligence centers: An experiment in applying structured methods. Joint Military Intelligence College Washington, DC. 2000.
  • GEORGE, Roger Z., The Art of Strategy and Intelligence in Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce eds.) Washington, Georgetown University Press, 2008.
  • GEORGE, Z. Fixing the Problem of Analytical Mindsets, in Intelligence and the National Security Strategist, (ed. Roger Z. George and Robert D. Kline) Washington: National Defense University, 2005.
  • GEORGE Roger Z. and BRUCE James B., Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations, Georgetown University Press, Washington, DC., 2008.
  • GILL Peter, What is Intelligence Theory? [Gregory F. Treverton, Seth G. Jones, Steven Boraz, Phillip Lipscy, Eds.] in Toward a Theory of Intelligence, Workshop Report, Rand Corporation, California, 2006.
  • HAUER Richards J., Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypothesis, in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (eds. Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce) Washington, Georgetown University Press, s. 2008.
  • HEDLEY John H., The Evolution of Intelligence Analysis. In Analyzing Intelligence origins, obstacles, and innovations (Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce eds), Georgetown University Press, Washington, D.C., 2008.
  • JOHNSTON Rob, Analitic culture in the U.S: Intelligence Community. An ethnographic Study, Government Printing Office (GPO), Pittsburgh, 2005.
  • KARALEKAS Anne, History of the Central Intelligence Agency, Aegean Park Press, 1977.
  • KARASAR Niyazi, Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemi: Kavramlar, İlkeler, Teknikler, Ankara: Araştırma, Eğitim, Danışmanlık Ltd. Şti. 1995.
  • KATZ Barry M., Foreign Intelligence: Research and Analysis in the Office of Strategic Services, 1942–1945, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1989
  • KERBEL Josh, Lost for Words: The Intelligence Community’s Struggle to Find its Voice, Parameters, 102, 112, 2008.
  • KÖSELİ Mutlu, İstihbarat. Temel Hususlar ve Güncel Konular, Adalet Yayınevi, Ankara, 2011.
  • LAQUEUR Walter, A World of Secrets: The Uses and Limits of Intelligence, New York: Basic Books, 1985.
  • MARRIN Stephen, Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging The Gap Between Scholarship And Practice. New York: Routledge, 2011.
  • MONTAGUE Ludwell Lee, General Walter Bedell Smith as Director of Central Intelligence, University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1992.
  • PRUNCKUN Hank, Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis. The Scarecrow Press, Inc. Londra, 2010.
  • RICHARDS Julian, The Art & Science of Intelligence Analysis, Oxford University Press, USA 2010.
  • SEBE M., The role of education and training in intelligence. Univers Strategic - Revistă Universitară de Studii Strategice Interdisciplinare 60 Nr. 2 2014.
  • SMITH Russell Jack, The Unknown CIA: My Three Decades with the Agency, Pergamon-Brassey’s, McLean, Va. 1989.
  • SMITH Timothy J. Predictive Warning: Teams, Networks, and Scientific Method, in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce eds.) Washington, Georgetown University Press, s. 2008.
  • TRUMAN Harry S., Memoirs, vol. 2, Years of Trial and Hope, Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1956.
  • WESTERFIELD H. Bradford, Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal. Yale University Press, 1995.
  • ZOHAR Eran, Intelligence Analysis as a Manifestation of a Grounded Theory, CounterIntelligence, (2013). 26:1, 130-160. Journal International of Intelligence and Makaleler
  • MARRIN Stephen. Evaluating the Quality of Intelligence Analysis: By What (Mis) Measure? Intelligence and National Security, December 2012, Vol. 27, No. 6.
  • PHYTHIAN Mark, Intelligence Analysis Today and Tomorrow, Security Challenges, 2009, vol. 5, no. 1.
  • PUVATHINGAL Bess J. & HANTULA Donald A., Revisiting the psychology of intelligence analysis: From rational actors to adaptive thinkers. 2011 American Psychological Association, 2012 Vol. 67, No. 3.
  • SINAI Joshua, Counterterrorism Bookshelf”–Books & Monographs on Intelligence Agencies, the Intelligence Process and Intelligence Analytic Methods that Contribute to Improving Terrorism and Counterterrorism Analysis. Perspective on Terrorism, 2013, Vol.7, no.5. İnternet Kaynakları
  • CAPARINI Marina, Challenges of control and oversight of intelligence services in a liberal democracy, 2002, http://www.dcaf. ch/_docs/WP103.pdf (eris imtarihi: 11.11.2008) Encyclopedia.com The http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3273100014.html Art tarihi: 01.01.2014).
  • KAHN David, What is Intelligence Theory?, in Toward a Theory of Intelligence Workshop Report, (eds. Gregory F. Treverton, Seth G. Jones, conf_proceedings/2006/RAND_CF219.p 02008).
  • Krizan LISA, Intelligence essentials for everyone. Joint military intelligence college occasional paper number 6. http://www.ndic.edu/ press/8342.htm (eris imtarihi. 03.04.2010)
  • National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis Behavioral and Social catalog.php?record_id=13062 (erişim tarihi: 17.05.2014).
  • TWEET Will, Is public administration a science or an art? http://www.thefreeresource.com/is-public-administration-a-science-or- an-art (erişim tarihi: 01.02.2013). and Science of Management, (erişim Steven Boraz, Phillip Lipscy,) www.rand.org/pubs/ df. (eris imtarihi: ScientiŞc Foundations, 20 http://www.nap.edu/ 117 Güvenlik Stratejileri Yıl: 8 Sayı:16

Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemlerinin İstihbarat Analizinde Kullanılması

Year 2015, Volume: 11 Issue: 21, 87 - 117, 11.05.2015

Abstract

Mevcut çalışma istihbarat analizinde bilimsel yöntemlerin kullanılmasının günümüzün bir gerekliliği olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. İstihbarat teşkilatlarında analizin zaman içerisinde gelişmesini örneklendirebilmek maksadıyla ABD istihbarat teşkilatlarında istihbarat analizinin gelişmesini incelemiştir. Çalışmadan anlaşılmaktadır ki, ABD’de değişik istihbarat zaaflarının ardından istihbarat teşkilatlarının analiz kabiliyetleri sorgulanmış; daha yerinde analizler yapabilmesi için bilimsel tekniklerin kullanılmasının yaygınlaştırılması her dönem için önerilen çözüm olmuştur. Bu kapsamda uygulayıcılara fikir verebilmesi açısından çalışmada bilimsel uygulamaların ne olduğu ve nasıl yapılabileceği anlatılmış, uygulayıcılar için bir model ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. İstihbarat teşkilatlarının analiz kapasitesini arttırmak için bilimsel çalışmalar yapabilecek bilgi ve kabiliyeti olan akademisyenlerden faydalandığı ve analizcilerin bilimsel teknikleri de içeren, sistematik, yapılandırılmış analizleri üretebilme becerisi verilen eğitimlerin önemi vurgulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İstihbarat, istihbarat analizi, bilimsel araştırmalar metodu.

References

  • Kitaplar AGRELL Wilhelm, Essence of Assessment: Methods and Problems of Intelligence Analysis, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS)/National Defence College, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012.
  • BRUCE James B., Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epistemology Matters to Intelligence, in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (eds. Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce) Washington, Georgetown University Press. CLARK Robert M., Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach. [4th Edition], CQ Press/Sage, Washington, DC, 2012.
  • COLBY William and FORBATH Peter, Honorable Men: My Life in the CIA, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1978.
  • FISHER Rebecca and JOHNSTON Rob, Is Intelligence Analysis a Discipline? in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce eds.) Washington, Georgetown University Press, s. 2008.
  • FOLKER Robert D. Jr., Intelligence analysis in theater joint intelligence centers: An experiment in applying structured methods. Joint Military Intelligence College Washington, DC. 2000.
  • GEORGE, Roger Z., The Art of Strategy and Intelligence in Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce eds.) Washington, Georgetown University Press, 2008.
  • GEORGE, Z. Fixing the Problem of Analytical Mindsets, in Intelligence and the National Security Strategist, (ed. Roger Z. George and Robert D. Kline) Washington: National Defense University, 2005.
  • GEORGE Roger Z. and BRUCE James B., Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations, Georgetown University Press, Washington, DC., 2008.
  • GILL Peter, What is Intelligence Theory? [Gregory F. Treverton, Seth G. Jones, Steven Boraz, Phillip Lipscy, Eds.] in Toward a Theory of Intelligence, Workshop Report, Rand Corporation, California, 2006.
  • HAUER Richards J., Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypothesis, in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (eds. Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce) Washington, Georgetown University Press, s. 2008.
  • HEDLEY John H., The Evolution of Intelligence Analysis. In Analyzing Intelligence origins, obstacles, and innovations (Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce eds), Georgetown University Press, Washington, D.C., 2008.
  • JOHNSTON Rob, Analitic culture in the U.S: Intelligence Community. An ethnographic Study, Government Printing Office (GPO), Pittsburgh, 2005.
  • KARALEKAS Anne, History of the Central Intelligence Agency, Aegean Park Press, 1977.
  • KARASAR Niyazi, Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemi: Kavramlar, İlkeler, Teknikler, Ankara: Araştırma, Eğitim, Danışmanlık Ltd. Şti. 1995.
  • KATZ Barry M., Foreign Intelligence: Research and Analysis in the Office of Strategic Services, 1942–1945, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1989
  • KERBEL Josh, Lost for Words: The Intelligence Community’s Struggle to Find its Voice, Parameters, 102, 112, 2008.
  • KÖSELİ Mutlu, İstihbarat. Temel Hususlar ve Güncel Konular, Adalet Yayınevi, Ankara, 2011.
  • LAQUEUR Walter, A World of Secrets: The Uses and Limits of Intelligence, New York: Basic Books, 1985.
  • MARRIN Stephen, Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging The Gap Between Scholarship And Practice. New York: Routledge, 2011.
  • MONTAGUE Ludwell Lee, General Walter Bedell Smith as Director of Central Intelligence, University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1992.
  • PRUNCKUN Hank, Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis. The Scarecrow Press, Inc. Londra, 2010.
  • RICHARDS Julian, The Art & Science of Intelligence Analysis, Oxford University Press, USA 2010.
  • SEBE M., The role of education and training in intelligence. Univers Strategic - Revistă Universitară de Studii Strategice Interdisciplinare 60 Nr. 2 2014.
  • SMITH Russell Jack, The Unknown CIA: My Three Decades with the Agency, Pergamon-Brassey’s, McLean, Va. 1989.
  • SMITH Timothy J. Predictive Warning: Teams, Networks, and Scientific Method, in Analyzing intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations (Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce eds.) Washington, Georgetown University Press, s. 2008.
  • TRUMAN Harry S., Memoirs, vol. 2, Years of Trial and Hope, Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1956.
  • WESTERFIELD H. Bradford, Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal. Yale University Press, 1995.
  • ZOHAR Eran, Intelligence Analysis as a Manifestation of a Grounded Theory, CounterIntelligence, (2013). 26:1, 130-160. Journal International of Intelligence and Makaleler
  • MARRIN Stephen. Evaluating the Quality of Intelligence Analysis: By What (Mis) Measure? Intelligence and National Security, December 2012, Vol. 27, No. 6.
  • PHYTHIAN Mark, Intelligence Analysis Today and Tomorrow, Security Challenges, 2009, vol. 5, no. 1.
  • PUVATHINGAL Bess J. & HANTULA Donald A., Revisiting the psychology of intelligence analysis: From rational actors to adaptive thinkers. 2011 American Psychological Association, 2012 Vol. 67, No. 3.
  • SINAI Joshua, Counterterrorism Bookshelf”–Books & Monographs on Intelligence Agencies, the Intelligence Process and Intelligence Analytic Methods that Contribute to Improving Terrorism and Counterterrorism Analysis. Perspective on Terrorism, 2013, Vol.7, no.5. İnternet Kaynakları
  • CAPARINI Marina, Challenges of control and oversight of intelligence services in a liberal democracy, 2002, http://www.dcaf. ch/_docs/WP103.pdf (eris imtarihi: 11.11.2008) Encyclopedia.com The http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3273100014.html Art tarihi: 01.01.2014).
  • KAHN David, What is Intelligence Theory?, in Toward a Theory of Intelligence Workshop Report, (eds. Gregory F. Treverton, Seth G. Jones, conf_proceedings/2006/RAND_CF219.p 02008).
  • Krizan LISA, Intelligence essentials for everyone. Joint military intelligence college occasional paper number 6. http://www.ndic.edu/ press/8342.htm (eris imtarihi. 03.04.2010)
  • National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis Behavioral and Social catalog.php?record_id=13062 (erişim tarihi: 17.05.2014).
  • TWEET Will, Is public administration a science or an art? http://www.thefreeresource.com/is-public-administration-a-science-or- an-art (erişim tarihi: 01.02.2013). and Science of Management, (erişim Steven Boraz, Phillip Lipscy,) www.rand.org/pubs/ df. (eris imtarihi: ScientiŞc Foundations, 20 http://www.nap.edu/ 117 Güvenlik Stratejileri Yıl: 8 Sayı:16
There are 37 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mutlu Köseli This is me

Publication Date May 11, 2015
Submission Date May 11, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 11 Issue: 21

Cite

Chicago Köseli, Mutlu. “Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemlerinin İstihbarat Analizinde Kullanılması”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 11, no. 21 (May 2015): 87-117.