Artificial Intelligence in Future Wars

Year 2023, “New” Wars and “New” Militaries, 145 - 166, 24.11.2023

Kıvılcım Romya Bilgin

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1394924

Abstract

The discussions surrounding the potential impact of technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence-based technologies, on strategic, operational, and tactical dimensions of future wars are a topic of interest. Some of these discussions propose that as artificial intelligence continues to evolve, not only the character but also the nature of the war will undergo substantial changes, suggesting that war in the future will experience a profound transformation. The distinction between the nature and the character of the war is blurred, making it challenging to comprehend the direction of artificial intelligence’s impact on the war. In this context, Carl von Clausewitz’s trinity regarding the nature and character of the war can be employed. While the trinity provides a framework for contemplating future wars, it also allows for an understanding of the transformative influence of artificial intelligence not on the nature but on the character of the war. Based on Clausewitz’s trinity, this study addresses the question of whether artificial intelligence is a technology that will change the nature of the war or will determine the structure of future wars by affecting the character of the war.

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence, Future War, Nature of War, Clausewitz, War Studies

Geleceğin Savaşlarında Yapay Zekâ

Abstract

Başta yapay zekâ tabanlı teknolojiler olmak üzere teknolojik gelişmelerin gelecekteki savaşların stratejik, operasyonel ve taktik boyutları üzerindeki potansiyel etkisine ilişkin tartışmalar ilgi çeken bir konudur. Tartışmaların bir kısmı yapay zekânın gelişimi ile sadece savaşın karakterinin değil, doğasının da değişeceğini değerlendirerek gelecekte savaşların derin bir dönüşüm geçireceğini iddia ederken, yapay zekânın savaşın doğasını ve karakterini etkileyip etkilemeyeceği önemli bir soru olarak alandaki yerini almaktadır. Savaşın doğası ve karakteri arasındaki ayrımın net çizilmesinin zorluğu, yapay zekânın savaşa etkisinin ne yönde olacağının anlaşılmasını da karmaşıklaştırmaktadır. Bu noktada, Carl von Clausewitz’in üçleme ile savaşın doğası ve karakterine ilişkin çizdiği çerçeve kullanılabilir. Üçleme bir yandan geleceğin savaşları hakkında düşünmek için bir çerçeve sunarken, öte yandan yapay zekânın savaşın doğası üzerinde değil, savaşın karakteri üzerindeki dönüştürücü etkisinin anlaşılmasına imkân sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada, Clausewitz’in üçlemesi kuramsal niteliğiyle temel alınarak, yapay zekâ savaşın doğasını değiştirecek bir teknoloji midir; yoksa savaşın karakteri üzerinde yaratacağı etkilerle geleceğin savaşlarının yapısını mı belirleyecektir sorusu ele alınmıştır.

Keywords

Yapay Zekâ, Geleceğin Savaşı, Savaşın Doğası, Clausewitz, Savaş Çalışmaları

References

• BASSFORD Christopher (2007). “The Primacy Policy and the Trinity in Clausewitz’s Mature Though”, Hew Strachan ve Andreas Herberg-Rothe (eds.), Clausewitz in the Twenty-First Century, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 74-90.
• BODEN Margaret (1990). The Philosophy of Artificial Intelligence, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
• CLAUSEWITZ Carl Von (2011). Savaş Üzerine, Doruk Yayınları, İstanbul.
• COHEN Eliot A. (2004). “Change and Transformation in Military Affairs”, Journal of Strategic Studies, 27:3, 395-407.
• COKER Christopher (2015). Future War, Polity Press, Cambridge.
• COKER Christopher (2019). “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of War”, Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 2:1, 55-60.
• COOK Brendan (2021). “The Future of Artificial Intelligence in ISR Operations”, Air & Space Power Journal, 35:41.
• DEIBEL UÇARYILMAZ Talya ve DEILBEL Eric (2023). “Artificial Intelligence in Ancient Rome: Classical Roman Philosophy on Legal Subjectivity”, Ruth Edith Hagengruber (ed.), Women Philosophers on Economics, Technology, Environment, and Gender History, Walter de Gruyter, Berlin, 157-170.
• DRESP-LANGLEY Birgitta (2023). “The Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence: What the Public Needs to Be Aware of”, Front Artif Intell, 6, 1-6.
• DROHAN Thomas A. (2011). “Bringing Nature of War into Irregular Warfare Strategy: Contemporary Applications of Clausewitz’s Trinity”, Defence Studies, 11:3, 497-516.
• ECHEVARRIA Antulio J. (2003). Globalization and the Nature of War, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.
• ECHEVARRIA Antulio J. (2007). Clausewitz and Contemporary War, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
• FLEMING Colin M. (2009). “New or Old Wars? Debating a Clausewitzian Future”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, 32:2, 213-241.
• FREEDMAN Lawrence (2017). The Future of War: A History, Penguin Books, London.
• GALEOTTI Mark (2022). The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War, Yale University Press, Connecticut.
• GRAY Chris H. (1997). Postmodern War: The New Politics of Conflict, Guilford Press, New York.
• HANDEL Michael I. (2004). Savaşın Ustaları, (çev. Berna Kara), Doruk Yayımcılık, İstanbul.
• HEBB Donald Olding (2002). The Organization of Behaviour: A Neuropsychological Theory, Psychology Press, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, New Jersey.
• HERBERG-ROTHE Andreas (2007). Clausewitz’s Puzzle: The Political Theory of War, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
• HOLSTI Kalevi J. (1996). The State, War, and the State of War, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• HOROWITZ Michael C. (2018). “Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power”, Texas National Security Review, 1:3, 37-57.
• JOHNSON James (2019). “Artificial Intelligence & Future Warfare: Implications for International Security”, Defense & Security Analysis, 35:2, 147-169.
• JOHNSON James (2020). “Artificial Intelligence: A Threat to Strategic Stability”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14:1, 16-39.
• JOHNSON James (2019). “Artificial Intelligence & Future Warfare: Implications for International Security”, Defense & Security Analysis, 35:2, 147-169.
• KALDOR Mary (2012). New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era, Polity Press, Cambridge.
• KNOX, Macgregor and MURRAY, Williamson (2001). “Thinking about Revolutions of Warfare”, Macgregor Knox and Williamson Murray (eds.), The Dynamics of Military Revolution 1300–2050, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• KREPINEVICH Andrew F. (1994). “Cavalry to the Computer: The Pattern of Military Revolutions”, The National Interest, 37, 30-42.
• MARTIN Mike (2023). How to Fight a War, Hurst Publishers, London.
• MAYOR Adrienne (2018). Gods and Robots: Myths, Machines and Ancient Dreams of Technology, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
• McNEILL William H. (1982). The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
• MORIOKA Masahiro (2023). “Descartes and Artificial Intelligence”, Journal of Philosophy of Life, 13:1, 1-4.
• NILSSON Nils J. (2010). The Quest for Artificial Intelligence: A History of Ideas and Achievements, Cambridge Press, Cambridge.
• NOËL, Jean-Christophe (2018). “Will artificial intelligence revolutionize the art of war?”, Politique Étrangère, 4, 159-170.
• O’HANLON Michael E. (2011). Technological Change and the Future of Warfare, Brookings Institution Press, Washington.
• PAYNE Kenneth (2018). Strategy, Evolution, and War: From Apes to Artificial Intelligence, Georgetown University Press, Washington.
• RICE Edward (1988). Wars of the Third Kind: Conflict in Underdeveloped Countries, University of California Press, Berkeley.
• ROLAND Alex (2016). War and Technology: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, New York.
• RUSSELL Stuart ve NORVIG Peter (2016). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, Pearson Education Limited, Malasia.
• RYAN Mick (2022). War Transformed: The Future of Twenty First Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, Naval Institute Press, Maryland.
• ŞAHIN Güngör ve KIVAM Süfyan Kadir (2021). “Askerî Harekâtın Evrimi ve İstihbarat, Gözetleme, Keşif Faaliyetlerinin Değişen Araçları”, Savunma ve Savaş Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2021, 31:2 263-286.
• SCHARRE Paul (2019). “Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Potential Risks to International Peace and Security”, Militarization of Artificial Intelligence, 2019, https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TheMilitarization-ArtificialIntelligence.pdf, erişim 14.09.2023.
• SHARMA Purabi SARMA Kandarpa Kumar ve MASTORAKIS Nikos E. (2020). “Artificial Intelligence Aided Electronic Warfare Systems: Recent Trends and Evolving Applications”, IEEE Access, 8, 224761-224780. SINGER Peter Warren (2010). “War of the Machines”, Scientific American, 303:1, 56-63.
• STRACHAN Hew ve Andreas HERBERG-ROTHE (2008). Clausewitz in the Twenty First Century, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
• THIELE, Ralph (2021). Hybrid Warfare: Future and Technologies, Springer Fachmedien, Nickenich.
• VAN CREVELD Martin (1989). Technology and War: From 2000 B.C. to the Present, The Free Press, New York.
• VAN CREVELD Martin (1991). The Transformation of War, The Free Press, New York.
• WALDMAN Thomas (2013). War, Clausewitz and the Trinity, Ashgate Publishing Limited, Burlington.
• WOOLRIDGE Michael (2021). A Brief History of Artificial Intelligence: What It Is, Where We Are, and Where We Are Going, Macmillan, New York.
• BASSFORD Christopher (2003). Teaching the Clausewitzian Trinity, http://www.clausewitz.com/ readings/Bassford/Trinity/TrinityTeachingNote.htm, erişim 09.10.2023.
• BRUNDAGE, Miles vd. (2018). “The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, And Mitigation”, Future of Humanity Institute, https://maliciousaireport.com/, erişim 26.09.2023.
• COHEN Raphael S., CHANDLER, Nathan EFRON Shira FREDERICK Bryan HAN Eugeniu, KLEIN, Kurt, MORGAN, Forrest E., RHOADES, Ashley L., SHATZ, Howard J. & SHO, Yuliya (2020). The Future of Warfare in 2030, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2849z1.html, erişim 23.09.2023.
• EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2019). A Definition of Artificial Intelligence: Main Capabilities And Scientific Disciplines, https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/definition-artificial-intelligence-main-capabilities-and-scientific-disciplines, erişim 20.09.2023.
• EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2020). AI Watch Historical Evolution of Artificial Intelligence, https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC120469/jrc120469_historical_evolution_of_ai-v1.1.pdf, erişim 20.09.2023.
• HOFFMAN Wyatt ve KIM Heeu Millie (2023). “Reducing the Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Military Decision Advantage”, Center for Security and Emerging Technology, https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-Reducing-the-Risks-of-Artificial-Intelligence-for-Military-Decision-Advantage.pdf, erişim 23.09.2023.
• IRCR (2014). ”Autonomous Weapon Systems: Technical, Military, Legal And Humanitarian Aspects”, Expert Meeting, International Committee of the Red Cross, https://www.icrc.org/en/document/report-icrc-meeting-autonomous-weapon-systems-26-28-march-2014, erişim 10.09.2023.
• REINSEL David GANTZ John ve RYDNING John (2018). The Digitization of the World From Edge to Core, IDC, https://www.seagate.com/files/www-content/our-story/trends/ files/idc-seagate-dataage-whitepaper.pdf, erişim 23.09.2023.
• SPIEGELEIRE Stephan De, MAAS, Matthijs & SWEIJS, Tim (2017). Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Defense: Strategic Implications for Small- and Medium-sized Force Providers, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. https://hcss.nl/sites/default/files/files/reports/Artifi cial%20Intelligence%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Defense.pdf, erişim 20.09.2023.
• SPINDEL Jennifer (2019). “Artificial Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, and Strategic Stability”, Militarization of Artificial Intelligence, https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/ uploads/2020/06/TheMilitarization-ArtificialIntelligence.pdf, erişim 14.09.2023.