Year 2019, Volume 48 , Issue 6, Pages 1838 - 1844 2019-12-08

ATA Method

Guckan YAPAR [1] , Hanife TAYLAN SELAMLAR [2] , Sedat CAPAR [3] , İdil YAVUZ [4]


In this study, the forecasting accuracy of a new forecasting method that is alternative to two major forecasting approaches: exponential smoothing (ES) and ARIMA, will be evaluated. Using the results from the M3-competition, the forecasting performance of this method will be compared to not only these two major approaches but also to other successful methods derived from these two approaches with respect to simplicity and cost in addition to accuracy.
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Initial value, M3-competition, Smoothing parameter
  • [1] S. Makridakis and M. Hibon, The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications, Int. J. Forecast, 16 (4), 451–476, 2000.
  • [2] J. De Gooijer and R. Hyndman, 25 years of IIF time series forecasting: A selective review, Int. J. Forecast, 22 (3), 443–473, 2006.
  • [3] P. Goodwin, The holt-winters approach to exponential smoothing: 50 years old and going strong, Foresight, 19, 30–33, 2010.
  • [4] R. Hyndman, A. Koehler, R. Snyder and S. Grose, A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods, Int. J. Forecast, 13 (3), 439–454, 2002.
  • [5] R. Hyndman, A. Koehler, J. Ord and R. Snyder, Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach, Springer-Verlag, 2008.
  • [6] R. Hyndman and G. Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts, 2014.
  • [7] C. Pegels, On startup or learning curves: An expanded view, AIIE Transactions, 1 (3), 216–222, 1969.
  • [8] E. Gardner Jr and E. McKenzie, Forecasting trends in time series, Management Science, 31 (10), 1237–1246, 1985.
  • [9] S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen and R. Winkler, The forecasting accuracy of major time series methods, Wiley, 1984.
  • [10] A. Koning, P. Franses, M. Hibon abd H. Stekler, The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results, Int. J. Forecast, 21 (3), 397–409, 2005.
  • [11] V. Assimakopoulos and K. Nikolopoulos, The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting, Int. J. Forecast, 16 (4), 521–430, 2000.
  • [12] R. Hyndman and B. Billah, Unmasking the Theta method, Int. J. Forecast, 19 (2), 287–290, 2003.
  • [13] J. Bates and C. Granger, The combination of forecasts, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 20 (4), 451–468, 1969.
  • [14] R. Clemen, Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography, Int. J. Forecast, 5 (4), 559–583, 1989.
  • [15] J. Armstrong, Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?, Int. J. Forecast, 5 (4), 585–588, 1989.
  • [16] J. Armstrong, Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners, Springer Science & Business Media, 2001.
  • [17] S. Makridakis and R. Winkler, Averages of forecasts: Some empirical results, Management Science, 29 (9), 987–996, 1983.
  • [18] S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen and R. Winkler, The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition, J. Forecast., 1 (2), 111–153, 1982.
  • [19] R. Cleveland, W. Cleveland, J. McRae and I. Terpenning, STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess, Journal of Official Statistics, 6 (1), 3–73, 1990.
  • [20] M. Adya, J. Armstrong, F. Collopy and M. Kennedy, An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge, Int. J. Forecast, 16 (4), 477–484, 2000.
  • [21] C. Bergmeir, R. Hyndman and J. Benitez, Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box–Cox transformation, Int. J. Forecast, 32 (2), 303– 312, 2016.
  • [22] G. Yapar, Modified simple exponential smoothing, Hacet. J. Math. Stat., 47 (3), 741– 754, 2018.
  • [23] G. Yapar, S. Capar, H. Selamlar and I. Yavuz, Modified Holt’s linear trend method, Hacet. J. Math. Stat., 47 (5), 1394–1403, 2018.
Primary Language en
Subjects Mathematics
Journal Section Statistics
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0002-0971-6676
Author: Guckan YAPAR (Primary Author)
Institution: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-4091-884X
Author: Hanife TAYLAN SELAMLAR
Institution: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0003-4741-4908
Author: Sedat CAPAR
Institution: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0003-2163-1066
Author: İdil YAVUZ
Institution: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : December 8, 2019

Bibtex @research article { hujms461032, journal = {Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics}, issn = {2651-477X}, eissn = {2651-477X}, address = {}, publisher = {Hacettepe University}, year = {2019}, volume = {48}, pages = {1838 - 1844}, doi = {10.15672/hujms.461032}, title = {ATA Method}, key = {cite}, author = {YAPAR, Guckan and TAYLAN SELAMLAR, Hanife and CAPAR, Sedat and YAVUZ, İdil} }
APA YAPAR, G , TAYLAN SELAMLAR, H , CAPAR, S , YAVUZ, İ . (2019). ATA Method. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics , 48 (6) , 1838-1844 . DOI: 10.15672/hujms.461032
MLA YAPAR, G , TAYLAN SELAMLAR, H , CAPAR, S , YAVUZ, İ . "ATA Method". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 48 (2019 ): 1838-1844 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/hujms/issue/50516/461032>
Chicago YAPAR, G , TAYLAN SELAMLAR, H , CAPAR, S , YAVUZ, İ . "ATA Method". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 48 (2019 ): 1838-1844
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - ATA Method AU - Guckan YAPAR , Hanife TAYLAN SELAMLAR , Sedat CAPAR , İdil YAVUZ Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.15672/hujms.461032 DO - 10.15672/hujms.461032 T2 - Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 1838 EP - 1844 VL - 48 IS - 6 SN - 2651-477X-2651-477X M3 - doi: 10.15672/hujms.461032 UR - https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.461032 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics ATA Method %A Guckan YAPAR , Hanife TAYLAN SELAMLAR , Sedat CAPAR , İdil YAVUZ %T ATA Method %D 2019 %J Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics %P 2651-477X-2651-477X %V 48 %N 6 %R doi: 10.15672/hujms.461032 %U 10.15672/hujms.461032
ISNAD YAPAR, Guckan , TAYLAN SELAMLAR, Hanife , CAPAR, Sedat , YAVUZ, İdil . "ATA Method". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 48 / 6 (December 2019): 1838-1844 . https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.461032
AMA YAPAR G , TAYLAN SELAMLAR H , CAPAR S , YAVUZ İ . ATA Method. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 2019; 48(6): 1838-1844.
Vancouver YAPAR G , TAYLAN SELAMLAR H , CAPAR S , YAVUZ İ . ATA Method. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 2019; 48(6): 1844-1838.