Research Article
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Year 2022, Volume: 51 Issue: 2, 606 - 617, 01.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.956136

Abstract

References

  • [1] A. Alferidi and R. Karki, Development of probabilistic reliability models of photovoltaic system topologies for system adequacy evaluation, Appl. Sci. 7 (2), 176, 2017.
  • [2] M. Aslam and A. Algarni, Analyzing the solar energy data using a new Anderson- Darling test under indeterminacy, Int. J. Photoenergy, Doi:10.1155/2020/6662389, 2020.
  • [3] Y. Atwa, E. El-Saadany, M. Salama and R. Seethapathy, Optimal renewable resources mix for distribution system energy loss minimization, IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 25 (1), 360-370, 2009.
  • [4] T.M.I. Băjenescu, Some reliability aspects of photovoltaic modules, Reliability and Ecological Aspects of Photovoltaic Modules, IntechOpen, 2020.
  • [5] Y. Chen and Q. Yang, Reliability of two-stage weighted-k-out-of-n systems with components in common, IEEE Trans. Rel. 54 (3), 431-440, 2005.
  • [6] Y. Devrim and S. Eryilmaz, Reliability-based evaluation of hybrid wind-solar energy system, Proc Inst Mech Eng O J Risk Reliab 235 (1), 136-143, 2021.
  • [7] S. Eryilmaz, Mean time to failure of weighted k-out-of-n: G systems, Comm. Statist. Simulation Comput. 44 (10), 2705-2713, 2015.
  • [8] S. Eryilmaz, Reliability analysis of multi-state system with three-state components and its application to wind energy, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 172, 58-63, 2018.
  • [9] S. Eryilmaz and A.R. Bozbulut, An algorithmic approach for the dynamic reliability analysis of non-repairable multi-state weighted k-out-of-n: G system, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 131, 61-65, 2014.
  • [10] S. Eryilmaz and C. Kan, Reliability based modeling and analysis for a wind power system integrated by two wind farms considering wind speed dependence, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 203, 107077, 2020.
  • [11] S. Eryilmaz and K. Sarikaya, Modeling and analysis of weighted-k-out-of-n: G system consisting of two different types of components, Proc Inst Mech Eng O J Risk Reliab 228 (3), 265-271, 2014.
  • [12] S. Eryilmaz and K.A. Ucum, The lost capacity by the weighted k-out-of-n system upon system failure, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 216, 107914, 2021.
  • [13] R. Laronde, A. Charki, D. Bigaud and P. Excoffier, Reliability evaluation of a photovoltaic module using accelerated degradation model, SPIE Optics+Photonic 8112, 143-150, 2011.
  • [14] E.M. Larsen, Y. Ding, Y.F. Li and E. Zio, Definitions of generalized multi- performance weighted multi-state K−-out-of-n system and its reliability evaluations, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 199, 105876, 2020.
  • [15] W. Li and M.J. Zuo, Reliability evaluation of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 (1), 160-167, 2008.
  • [16] M. Marwali, M. Haili, S. Shahidehpour and K. Abdul-Rahman, Short term generation scheduling in photovoltaic-utility grid with battery storage, IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 13 (3), 1057-1062, 1998.
  • [17] E.L. Meyer and E.E. Van Dyk, Assessing the reliability and degradation of photovoltaic module performance parameters, IEEE Trans. Rel. 53 (1), 83-92, 2004.
  • [18] T.T. Moe and K.M. Lin, Solar irradiance and power output modeling of photovoltaic module for reliability studies: case study of Mandalay Region, in: 2018 Joint International Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation, 1-6, 2018.
  • [19] J. Park, W. Liang, J. Choi, A. El-Keib, M. Shahidehpour and R. Billinton, A probabilistic reliability evaluation of a power system including solar/photovoltaic cell generator, in: 2009 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, 1-6, 2009.
  • [20] Z.M. Salameh, B.S. Borowy and A.R. Amin, Photovoltaic module-site matching based on the capacity factors, IEEE Trans. Energy Convers. 10 (2), 326-332, 1995.
  • [21] F.J. Samaniego and M. Shaked, Systems with weighted components, Statist. Probab. Lett. 78 (6), 815-823, 2008.
  • [22] V. Sharma and S. Chandel, Performance and degradation analysis for long term reliability of solar photovoltaic systems: A review, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 27, 753- 767, 2013.
  • [23] G.K. Singh, Solar power generation by PV (photovoltaic) technology: A review, Energy 53, 1-13, 2013.
  • [24] J.H. Teng, S.W. Luan, D.J. Lee and Y. Q. Huang, Optimal charging/discharging scheduling of battery storage systems for distribution systems interconnected with sizeable PV generation systems, IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 28 (2), 1425-1433, 2012.
  • [25] M. Vázquez and I. Rey-Stolle, Photovoltaic module reliability model based on field degradation studies, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 16 (5), 419-433, 2008.
  • [26] J.H. Wohlgemuth, D.W. Cunningham, P. Monus, J. Miller and A. Nguyen, Long term reliability of photovoltaic modules, in: 2006 IEEE 4th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conference, 2, 2050-2053, 2006.
  • [27] J.S. Wu and R.J. Chen, An algorithm for computing the reliability of weighted-k-out- of-n systems, IEEE Trans. Rel. 43 (2), 327-328, 1994.
  • [28] P. Zhang, W. Li, S. Li, Y. Wang and W. Xiao, Reliability assessment of photovoltaic power systems: Review of current status and future perspectives, Appl. Energy, 104, 822-833, 2013.
  • [29] Y. Zhang, Reliability analysis of randomly weighted k-out-of-n systems with heterogeneous components, Reliab. Eng. Syst. 205, 107184, 2021.

Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules

Year 2022, Volume: 51 Issue: 2, 606 - 617, 01.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.956136

Abstract

Solar energy is widely used as a renewable energy source in the world. Photovoltaic modules are the main components of a photovoltaic system to generate the solar power from the solar radiation. The photovoltaic modules may have multistate working conditions and different performance levels depending on the solar radiation. Each component can be in different states, namely, complete failure, partial working, and perfect functioning. In this study, we present a model for solar power systems with PV modules having various levels of operational performance. We develop a reliability model for the system's power regarding the $m$ threshold value that is the minimum required total performance level for the system. This model reflects the performance levels of PV modules and working probabilities of modules. The problem is considered under different conditions regarding the dependency of two types of multistate PV modules. 
Two numerical examples are also conducted to evaluate the reliability and power generated by two solar plants located in two different regions. Beta and Weibull distributions are used for the numerical calculations to differ solar radiation regimes in the regions. 

References

  • [1] A. Alferidi and R. Karki, Development of probabilistic reliability models of photovoltaic system topologies for system adequacy evaluation, Appl. Sci. 7 (2), 176, 2017.
  • [2] M. Aslam and A. Algarni, Analyzing the solar energy data using a new Anderson- Darling test under indeterminacy, Int. J. Photoenergy, Doi:10.1155/2020/6662389, 2020.
  • [3] Y. Atwa, E. El-Saadany, M. Salama and R. Seethapathy, Optimal renewable resources mix for distribution system energy loss minimization, IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 25 (1), 360-370, 2009.
  • [4] T.M.I. Băjenescu, Some reliability aspects of photovoltaic modules, Reliability and Ecological Aspects of Photovoltaic Modules, IntechOpen, 2020.
  • [5] Y. Chen and Q. Yang, Reliability of two-stage weighted-k-out-of-n systems with components in common, IEEE Trans. Rel. 54 (3), 431-440, 2005.
  • [6] Y. Devrim and S. Eryilmaz, Reliability-based evaluation of hybrid wind-solar energy system, Proc Inst Mech Eng O J Risk Reliab 235 (1), 136-143, 2021.
  • [7] S. Eryilmaz, Mean time to failure of weighted k-out-of-n: G systems, Comm. Statist. Simulation Comput. 44 (10), 2705-2713, 2015.
  • [8] S. Eryilmaz, Reliability analysis of multi-state system with three-state components and its application to wind energy, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 172, 58-63, 2018.
  • [9] S. Eryilmaz and A.R. Bozbulut, An algorithmic approach for the dynamic reliability analysis of non-repairable multi-state weighted k-out-of-n: G system, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 131, 61-65, 2014.
  • [10] S. Eryilmaz and C. Kan, Reliability based modeling and analysis for a wind power system integrated by two wind farms considering wind speed dependence, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 203, 107077, 2020.
  • [11] S. Eryilmaz and K. Sarikaya, Modeling and analysis of weighted-k-out-of-n: G system consisting of two different types of components, Proc Inst Mech Eng O J Risk Reliab 228 (3), 265-271, 2014.
  • [12] S. Eryilmaz and K.A. Ucum, The lost capacity by the weighted k-out-of-n system upon system failure, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 216, 107914, 2021.
  • [13] R. Laronde, A. Charki, D. Bigaud and P. Excoffier, Reliability evaluation of a photovoltaic module using accelerated degradation model, SPIE Optics+Photonic 8112, 143-150, 2011.
  • [14] E.M. Larsen, Y. Ding, Y.F. Li and E. Zio, Definitions of generalized multi- performance weighted multi-state K−-out-of-n system and its reliability evaluations, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 199, 105876, 2020.
  • [15] W. Li and M.J. Zuo, Reliability evaluation of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 (1), 160-167, 2008.
  • [16] M. Marwali, M. Haili, S. Shahidehpour and K. Abdul-Rahman, Short term generation scheduling in photovoltaic-utility grid with battery storage, IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 13 (3), 1057-1062, 1998.
  • [17] E.L. Meyer and E.E. Van Dyk, Assessing the reliability and degradation of photovoltaic module performance parameters, IEEE Trans. Rel. 53 (1), 83-92, 2004.
  • [18] T.T. Moe and K.M. Lin, Solar irradiance and power output modeling of photovoltaic module for reliability studies: case study of Mandalay Region, in: 2018 Joint International Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation, 1-6, 2018.
  • [19] J. Park, W. Liang, J. Choi, A. El-Keib, M. Shahidehpour and R. Billinton, A probabilistic reliability evaluation of a power system including solar/photovoltaic cell generator, in: 2009 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, 1-6, 2009.
  • [20] Z.M. Salameh, B.S. Borowy and A.R. Amin, Photovoltaic module-site matching based on the capacity factors, IEEE Trans. Energy Convers. 10 (2), 326-332, 1995.
  • [21] F.J. Samaniego and M. Shaked, Systems with weighted components, Statist. Probab. Lett. 78 (6), 815-823, 2008.
  • [22] V. Sharma and S. Chandel, Performance and degradation analysis for long term reliability of solar photovoltaic systems: A review, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 27, 753- 767, 2013.
  • [23] G.K. Singh, Solar power generation by PV (photovoltaic) technology: A review, Energy 53, 1-13, 2013.
  • [24] J.H. Teng, S.W. Luan, D.J. Lee and Y. Q. Huang, Optimal charging/discharging scheduling of battery storage systems for distribution systems interconnected with sizeable PV generation systems, IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 28 (2), 1425-1433, 2012.
  • [25] M. Vázquez and I. Rey-Stolle, Photovoltaic module reliability model based on field degradation studies, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 16 (5), 419-433, 2008.
  • [26] J.H. Wohlgemuth, D.W. Cunningham, P. Monus, J. Miller and A. Nguyen, Long term reliability of photovoltaic modules, in: 2006 IEEE 4th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conference, 2, 2050-2053, 2006.
  • [27] J.S. Wu and R.J. Chen, An algorithm for computing the reliability of weighted-k-out- of-n systems, IEEE Trans. Rel. 43 (2), 327-328, 1994.
  • [28] P. Zhang, W. Li, S. Li, Y. Wang and W. Xiao, Reliability assessment of photovoltaic power systems: Review of current status and future perspectives, Appl. Energy, 104, 822-833, 2013.
  • [29] Y. Zhang, Reliability analysis of randomly weighted k-out-of-n systems with heterogeneous components, Reliab. Eng. Syst. 205, 107184, 2021.
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Statistics
Journal Section Statistics
Authors

Melek Esemen 0000-0003-3725-9502

Selma Gurler 0000-0002-3119-1298

Publication Date April 1, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 51 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Esemen, M., & Gurler, S. (2022). Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 51(2), 606-617. https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.956136
AMA Esemen M, Gurler S. Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. April 2022;51(2):606-617. doi:10.15672/hujms.956136
Chicago Esemen, Melek, and Selma Gurler. “Reliability Based Modeling of the Performance of Solar Plants With Multistate PV Modules”. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 51, no. 2 (April 2022): 606-17. https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.956136.
EndNote Esemen M, Gurler S (April 1, 2022) Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 51 2 606–617.
IEEE M. Esemen and S. Gurler, “Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules”, Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 606–617, 2022, doi: 10.15672/hujms.956136.
ISNAD Esemen, Melek - Gurler, Selma. “Reliability Based Modeling of the Performance of Solar Plants With Multistate PV Modules”. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 51/2 (April 2022), 606-617. https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.956136.
JAMA Esemen M, Gurler S. Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 2022;51:606–617.
MLA Esemen, Melek and Selma Gurler. “Reliability Based Modeling of the Performance of Solar Plants With Multistate PV Modules”. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 51, no. 2, 2022, pp. 606-17, doi:10.15672/hujms.956136.
Vancouver Esemen M, Gurler S. Reliability based modeling of the performance of solar plants with multistate PV modules. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 2022;51(2):606-17.