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Baraj Yıkılma Modellerinde Kullanılan Debi Tahmin Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması

Year 2017, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 22 - 29, 01.06.2017

Abstract

Barajların elektrik üretimi ve sulama gibi alanlarda elde edilecek faydaları ile ülke ekonomilerine katkılarının yanı sıra çevre
düzenlemesi, ulaşım ve taşkın koruma gibi alanlarda da faydaları bulunmaktadır. Ancak oluşabilecek aksaklıklar baraj
yapılarının yükseklikleri ve aktif depolama hacimlerinin büyüklüğüne göre farklı seviyelerde tehlikeler meydana getirmektedir.
Özellikle baraj alanlarına yakın yerleşim bölgeleri için barajlarda oluşabilecek yıkılmanın önceden minimum hata ile tahmin
edilebilmesi hayati önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma baraj yıkılma modellerinde kullanılan debi tahmin yöntemlerinin temel
amaçları, hesap yöntemleri ve uygulama alanları ile elde dilecek sonuçların karşılaştırılmasını içermektedir. Literatürde bulunan
ve bu araştırmada incelenen yöntemler tarihi baraj yıkılma verilerine istatistiksel regresyonlar uygulanarak elde edildiği için
bazı durumlarda yetersiz kalmaktadır; özellikle bu verilerin elde edildiği baraj türlerinin (baraj yüksekliklerinin) tüm barajları
içermemesi sebebiyle önerilen regresyon denklemlerinin yüksek belirsizlikleri olduğu görülmektedir. 

References

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  • [2]. Y. Xu and L. M. Zhang, “Breaching Parameters for Earth and Rockfill Dams,” J. Geotech. Geoenvironmental Eng., vol. 135, no. 12, pp. 1957– 1970, 2009.
  • [3]. C. Chinnarasri, S. Jirakitlerd, and S. Wongwises, “Embankment dam breach and its outflow characteristics,” Civ. Eng. Environ. Syst., vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 247–264, 2007.
  • [4]. L. A. LaRocque, J. Imran, and M. H. Chaudhry, “Experimental and Numerical Investigations of TwoDimensional Dam-Break Flows,” J. Hydraul. …, no. June, pp. 569–579, 2012.
  • [5]. S. S. Chauhan, D. S. Bowles, and L. R. Anderson, “Do current breach parameter estimation techniques provide reasonable estimates for use in breach modeling?,” 2004 Annu. conf assoc state dam Saf. Off. Phoenix, AZ, USA, 2004.
  • [6]. M. Al-Riffai and I. Nistor, “Impact and analysis of geotechnical processes on earthfill dam breaching,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 55, no. 1, 2010.
  • [7]. A. Altunkaynak and H. G. Elmazoghi, “Neuro-fuzzy models for prediction of breach formation time of embankment dams,” J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst., vol. 31, no. 3, 2016.
  • [8]. D. F. Campos-Aranda, “Estimate of the magnitudes of ruptures of earth or rockfill dams using a statistical method,” Tecnol. y Ciencias del Agua, vol. 5, no. 3, 2014.
  • [9]. C. I. Thornton, M. W. Pierce, and S. R. Abt, “Enhanced predictions for peak outflow from breached embankment dams,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 16, no. 1, 2010.
  • [10]. G. De Lorenzo and F. Macchione, “Formulas for the peak discharge from breached earthfill dams,” J. Hydraul. Eng., vol. 140, no. 1, 2014.
  • [11]. V. Nourani, H. Hakimzadeh, and A. B. Amini, “Implementation of artificial neural network technique in the simulation of dam breach hydrograph,” J. Hydroinformatics, vol. 14, no. 2, 2012.
  • [12]. F. Hooshyaripor, A. Tahershamsi, and S. Golian, “Application of copula method and neural networks for predicting peak outflow from breached embankments,” J. Hydro-Environment Res., vol. 8, no. 3, 2014.
  • [13]. H. Hakimzadeh, V. Nourani, and A. B. Amini, “Genetic programming simulation of dam breach hydrograph and peak outflow discharge,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 19, no. 4, 2014. Baraj Yıkılma Modellerinde Kullanılan Tahmin Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması; Aydemir A. ve Güven A. 29
  • [14]. A. M. A. Sattar, “Gene expression models for prediction of dam breach parameters,” J. Hydroinformatics, vol. 16, no. 3, 2014.
  • [15]. G. Tsakiris and M. Spiliotis, “Embankment dam break: Uncertainty of outflow based on fuzzy representation of breach formation parameters,” J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst., vol. 27, no. 5, 2014.
  • [16]. H. G. Elmazoghi, “Fuzzy algorithm for estimating average breach widths of embankment dams,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 68, no. 2, 2013.
  • [17]. T. L. Wahl, “Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters,” J. Hydraul. Eng., vol. 130, no. 5, pp. 389–397, May 2004.
  • [18]. C. Biscarini, S. Di Francesco, and P. Manciola, “CFD modelling approach for dam break flow studies,” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 14, pp. 705–718, 2010.
  • [19] M. W. Pierce, S. R. Abt, and C. I. Thornton, “Revision of embankment dam breaching regression relationships,” in Association of Dam Safety Officials - Dam Safety 2008, 2008.
  • [20]. J. E. Costa, “Floods from Dam Failures,” 1985.
  • [21]. S. C. Service, “Simplified Dam-Breach Routing Procedure,” Tech. Release, no. 66, p. 39p, 1981.
  • [22]. D. C. Froehlich, “Peak Outflow from Breached Embankment Dam,” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., vol. 121, no. 1, pp. 90–97, 1995.
  • [23]. S. K. Gupta and V. P. Singh, “Discussion of ‘Enhanced Predictions for Peak Outflow from Breached Embankment Dams’ by Christopher I. Thornton, Michael W. Pierce, and Steven R. Abt,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 463–466, Mar. 2012.
Year 2017, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 22 - 29, 01.06.2017

Abstract

References

  • [1]. M. Foster, R. Fell, and M. Spannagle, “The statistics of embankment dam failures and accidents,” Can. Geotech. J., vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 1000–1024, 2000.
  • [2]. Y. Xu and L. M. Zhang, “Breaching Parameters for Earth and Rockfill Dams,” J. Geotech. Geoenvironmental Eng., vol. 135, no. 12, pp. 1957– 1970, 2009.
  • [3]. C. Chinnarasri, S. Jirakitlerd, and S. Wongwises, “Embankment dam breach and its outflow characteristics,” Civ. Eng. Environ. Syst., vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 247–264, 2007.
  • [4]. L. A. LaRocque, J. Imran, and M. H. Chaudhry, “Experimental and Numerical Investigations of TwoDimensional Dam-Break Flows,” J. Hydraul. …, no. June, pp. 569–579, 2012.
  • [5]. S. S. Chauhan, D. S. Bowles, and L. R. Anderson, “Do current breach parameter estimation techniques provide reasonable estimates for use in breach modeling?,” 2004 Annu. conf assoc state dam Saf. Off. Phoenix, AZ, USA, 2004.
  • [6]. M. Al-Riffai and I. Nistor, “Impact and analysis of geotechnical processes on earthfill dam breaching,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 55, no. 1, 2010.
  • [7]. A. Altunkaynak and H. G. Elmazoghi, “Neuro-fuzzy models for prediction of breach formation time of embankment dams,” J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst., vol. 31, no. 3, 2016.
  • [8]. D. F. Campos-Aranda, “Estimate of the magnitudes of ruptures of earth or rockfill dams using a statistical method,” Tecnol. y Ciencias del Agua, vol. 5, no. 3, 2014.
  • [9]. C. I. Thornton, M. W. Pierce, and S. R. Abt, “Enhanced predictions for peak outflow from breached embankment dams,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 16, no. 1, 2010.
  • [10]. G. De Lorenzo and F. Macchione, “Formulas for the peak discharge from breached earthfill dams,” J. Hydraul. Eng., vol. 140, no. 1, 2014.
  • [11]. V. Nourani, H. Hakimzadeh, and A. B. Amini, “Implementation of artificial neural network technique in the simulation of dam breach hydrograph,” J. Hydroinformatics, vol. 14, no. 2, 2012.
  • [12]. F. Hooshyaripor, A. Tahershamsi, and S. Golian, “Application of copula method and neural networks for predicting peak outflow from breached embankments,” J. Hydro-Environment Res., vol. 8, no. 3, 2014.
  • [13]. H. Hakimzadeh, V. Nourani, and A. B. Amini, “Genetic programming simulation of dam breach hydrograph and peak outflow discharge,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 19, no. 4, 2014. Baraj Yıkılma Modellerinde Kullanılan Tahmin Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması; Aydemir A. ve Güven A. 29
  • [14]. A. M. A. Sattar, “Gene expression models for prediction of dam breach parameters,” J. Hydroinformatics, vol. 16, no. 3, 2014.
  • [15]. G. Tsakiris and M. Spiliotis, “Embankment dam break: Uncertainty of outflow based on fuzzy representation of breach formation parameters,” J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst., vol. 27, no. 5, 2014.
  • [16]. H. G. Elmazoghi, “Fuzzy algorithm for estimating average breach widths of embankment dams,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 68, no. 2, 2013.
  • [17]. T. L. Wahl, “Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters,” J. Hydraul. Eng., vol. 130, no. 5, pp. 389–397, May 2004.
  • [18]. C. Biscarini, S. Di Francesco, and P. Manciola, “CFD modelling approach for dam break flow studies,” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 14, pp. 705–718, 2010.
  • [19] M. W. Pierce, S. R. Abt, and C. I. Thornton, “Revision of embankment dam breaching regression relationships,” in Association of Dam Safety Officials - Dam Safety 2008, 2008.
  • [20]. J. E. Costa, “Floods from Dam Failures,” 1985.
  • [21]. S. C. Service, “Simplified Dam-Breach Routing Procedure,” Tech. Release, no. 66, p. 39p, 1981.
  • [22]. D. C. Froehlich, “Peak Outflow from Breached Embankment Dam,” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., vol. 121, no. 1, pp. 90–97, 1995.
  • [23]. S. K. Gupta and V. P. Singh, “Discussion of ‘Enhanced Predictions for Peak Outflow from Breached Embankment Dams’ by Christopher I. Thornton, Michael W. Pierce, and Steven R. Abt,” J. Hydrol. Eng., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 463–466, Mar. 2012.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Alper Aydemir

Aytaç Güven

Publication Date June 1, 2017
Submission Date October 2, 2017
Acceptance Date April 11, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Aydemir, A., & Güven, A. (2017). Baraj Yıkılma Modellerinde Kullanılan Debi Tahmin Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması. Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 2(1), 22-29.