Estimating Sustainable Development Goals Performance Values

Abstract

After the 2015 Sustainable Development Summit, social, economic, and environmental sustainability were integrated into all policies and strategies, and the Sustainable Development Goals, which UN countries committed to achieve by 2030, were established. With five years remaining to achieve the established development goals, it is necessary to identify the steps that must be taken under challenging conditions to protect our planet and build a more resilient and prosperous future, and to detail the priority areas. The performance of countries on the indicators determined within the framework of the SDGs is quite important in evaluating the balance between the social, economic, and environmental efforts required to achieve sustainable development. In this context, the study estimated Turkiye's and the G7 countries' relative performance scores on relevant indicators for the period up to 2030 and identified priority areas. For this purpose, the Grey Prediction method, which is one of the research and application areas of Grey System Theory, was utilized, and quantitative prediction values for the relevant indicators of the countries were obtained using the GM (1,1) Model. It can be said that Germany, France, and the United Kingdom will be the best countries in achieving the targets set for 2030, with Japan, Italy, and Canada performing closely to these countries. It is predicted that Turkiye and the US will fall behind these countries in terms of their SDG scores. It is noteworthy that the United States, a developed country, lags considerably behind the other G7 nations.

Keywords

• Sustainable Development
• Sustainable Development Goals
• Grey Prediction
• G7
• Turkiye

Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri Performans Değerlerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

Abstract

2015 yılındaki Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Zirvesinden sonra sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik tüm politika ve stratejilere entegre edilmiş, BM ülkeleri tarafından 2030 yılına kadar gerçekleştirilmesi taahhüt edilen Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri belirlenmiştir. Belirlenen kalkınma hedeflerini gerçekleştirmeye beş yıl kala, gezegenimizi korumak, daha dayanıklı ve müreffeh bir gelecek imar etmek için zorlu koşullar altında atılması gereken adımları belirlemek, önceliğe sahip alanları ayrıntılı bir biçimde ortaya koymak gerekmektedir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmayı gerçekleştirebilmek için gereken sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel çabalar arasındaki dengenin değerlendirilmesinde SKH kapsamında belirlenen göstergelerde ülkelerin sergilediği performanslar bir hayli öneme sahiptir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada, 2030 yılına kadar ki süre için Türkiye’nin ve G7 ülkelerinin ilgili göstergelerdeki göreli performans skorları tahmin edilmiş, öncelikli alanlar ortaya konulmuştur. Bunun için Gri Sistem Teorisinin araştırma ve uygulama alanlarından biri olan Gri Tahmin yönteminden faydalanılmış, GM (1,1) Modeli ile ülkelerin ilgili göstergelerdeki nicel tahmin değerleri elde edilmiştir. Almanya, Fransa ve İngiltere’nin 2030 yılına gelindiğinde belirlenen hedeflere ulaşma hususunda en iyi ülkeler olacağı, Japonya, İtalya ve Kanada’nın bu ülkelere yakın bir performansa sahip olacağı söylenebilir. Türkiye ve ABD’nin ise SKH skoru açısından bu ülkelerin gerisinde kalacağı öngörülmektedir. Gelişmiş ülke statüsünde yer alan ABD’nin diğer G7’ülkelerinin bir hayli gerisinde kalması dikkat çekicidir.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma
• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri
• Gri Tahmin
• G7
• Türkiye

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