Estimating Sustainable Development Goals Performance Values

Öz

After the 2015 Sustainable Development Summit, social, economic, and environmental sustainability were integrated into all policies and strategies, and the Sustainable Development Goals, which UN countries committed to achieve by 2030, were established. With five years remaining to achieve the established development goals, it is necessary to identify the steps that must be taken under challenging conditions to protect our planet and build a more resilient and prosperous future, and to detail the priority areas. The performance of countries on the indicators determined within the framework of the SDGs is quite important in evaluating the balance between the social, economic, and environmental efforts required to achieve sustainable development. In this context, the study estimated Turkiye's and the G7 countries' relative performance scores on relevant indicators for the period up to 2030 and identified priority areas. For this purpose, the Grey Prediction method, which is one of the research and application areas of Grey System Theory, was utilized, and quantitative prediction values for the relevant indicators of the countries were obtained using the GM (1,1) Model. It can be said that Germany, France, and the United Kingdom will be the best countries in achieving the targets set for 2030, with Japan, Italy, and Canada performing closely to these countries. It is predicted that Turkiye and the US will fall behind these countries in terms of their SDG scores. It is noteworthy that the United States, a developed country, lags considerably behind the other G7 nations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sustainable Development
• Sustainable Development Goals
• Grey Prediction
• G7
• Turkiye

Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri Performans Değerlerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

2015 yılındaki Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Zirvesinden sonra sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik tüm politika ve stratejilere entegre edilmiş, BM ülkeleri tarafından 2030 yılına kadar gerçekleştirilmesi taahhüt edilen Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri belirlenmiştir. Belirlenen kalkınma hedeflerini gerçekleştirmeye beş yıl kala, gezegenimizi korumak, daha dayanıklı ve müreffeh bir gelecek imar etmek için zorlu koşullar altında atılması gereken adımları belirlemek, önceliğe sahip alanları ayrıntılı bir biçimde ortaya koymak gerekmektedir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmayı gerçekleştirebilmek için gereken sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel çabalar arasındaki dengenin değerlendirilmesinde SKH kapsamında belirlenen göstergelerde ülkelerin sergilediği performanslar bir hayli öneme sahiptir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada, 2030 yılına kadar ki süre için Türkiye’nin ve G7 ülkelerinin ilgili göstergelerdeki göreli performans skorları tahmin edilmiş, öncelikli alanlar ortaya konulmuştur. Bunun için Gri Sistem Teorisinin araştırma ve uygulama alanlarından biri olan Gri Tahmin yönteminden faydalanılmış, GM (1,1) Modeli ile ülkelerin ilgili göstergelerdeki nicel tahmin değerleri elde edilmiştir. Almanya, Fransa ve İngiltere’nin 2030 yılına gelindiğinde belirlenen hedeflere ulaşma hususunda en iyi ülkeler olacağı, Japonya, İtalya ve Kanada’nın bu ülkelere yakın bir performansa sahip olacağı söylenebilir. Türkiye ve ABD’nin ise SKH skoru açısından bu ülkelerin gerisinde kalacağı öngörülmektedir. Gelişmiş ülke statüsünde yer alan ABD’nin diğer G7’ülkelerinin bir hayli gerisinde kalması dikkat çekicidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma
• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri
• Gri Tahmin
• G7
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Alfehaid, M. M. A., Johri, A., Sehajpal, S., & Jain, A. (2025). Exploring the Synergies Between SDG 9 and SDG 3: The Role of Innovation and Infrastructure in Enhancing Public Health. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 20(6), 2293-2315. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.200604
2. Ariansen, P. (1999). Sustainability, morality and future generations. In W. M. Lafferty & O. Langhelle (Eds.), Towards sustainable development: On the goals of development—And the conditions of sustainability (pp. 84-96). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
3. Asadikia, A., Rajabifard, A., & Kalantari, M. (2021). Systematic prioritization of SDGs: Machine learning approach. World Development, 140, 105269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105269
4. Bengtsson, M., Alfredsson, E., Cohen, M., Lorek, S., & Schroeder, P. (2018). Transforming systems of consumption and production for achieving the sustainable development goals: Moving beyond efficiency. Sustainability Science, 13(6), 1533-1547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0582-1
5. Bhandari, M. P. (2024). What is next for the sustainable development goals, what are the challenges concerning SDG 10—reduced inequalities?. Sustainable Earth Reviews, 7(1), 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42055-024-00093-8
6. Bhatt, A. (2022). Here is why the battle for gender equality is more urgent than ever. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/here-s-why-the-battle-for-gender-equality-is-more-urgent-than-ever/
7. Biggeri, M., Clark, D. A., Ferrannini, A., & Mauro, V. (2019). Tracking the SDGs in an ‘integrated’manner: A proposal for a new index to capture synergies and trade-offs between and within goals. World Development, 122, 628-647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.05.022
8. Biglari, S., Beiglary, S., & Arthanari, T. (2022). Achieving sustainable development goals: Fact or Fiction? Journal of Cleaner Production, 332, 130032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.130032

9. Blewitt, J. (2012). Understanding sustainable development. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849773645
10. Boto-Álvarez, A., & García-Fernández, R. (2020). Implementation of the 2030 agenda sustainable development goals in Spain. Sustainability, 12(6), 2546. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062546
11. Bozlağan, R. (2005). Sürdürülebilir gelişme düşüncesinin tarihsel arka plani. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, (50), 1011-1028.
12. Brooks, E. (2013). Is “The Future We Want” good for business? http://www.newsustainabilityinc.com/2013/12/04/isthefuturewewantgoodforbusiness/
13. Chenary, K., Pirian Kalat, O., & Sharifi, A. (2024). Forecasting sustainable development goals scores by 2030 using machine learning models. Sustainable Development, 32(6), 6520-6538. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3037
14. Deng, J. (1982). Control problems of grey systems. Systems & Control Letters, 1(5), 288-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X
15. Dello Strologo, A., D’Andrassi, E., Paoloni, N., & Mattei, G. (2021). Italy versus other European countries: Sustainable development goals, policies and future hypothetical results. Sustainability, 13(6), 3417. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063417
16. Dréo, J. (2006). Sustainable development. 10 Nisan, 2025 tarihinde https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sustainable_development.svg adresinden alınmıştır.
17. Elkington, J. (1994). Towards the sustainable corporation: Win-win-win business strategies for sustainable development. California Management Review, 36(2), 90-100. https://doi.org/10.2307/41165746
18. Emina, K. A. (2021). Sustainable development and the future generations. Social Sciences, Humanities and Education Journal (SHE Journal), 2(1), 57-71. https://doi.org/10.25273/she.v2i1.8611
19. Firoiu, D., Ionescu, G. H., Băndoi, A., Florea, N. M., & Jianu, E. (2019). Achieving sustainable development goals (SDG): Implementation of the 2030 Agenda in Romania. Sustainability, 11(7), 2156. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11072156
20. Firoiu, D., Ionescu, G. H., Pîrvu, R., Bădîrcea, R., & Patrichi, I. C. (2022). Achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDG) in Portugal and forecast of key indicators until 2030. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(6), 1649-1683. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17645
21. Grant, L. K. (2010). Sustainability: From excess to aesthetics. Behavior and Social Issues, 19(1), 7-47. https://doi.org/10.5210/bsi.v19i0.2789
22. Greenhill, R., Carter, P., Hoy, C., & Manuel, M. (2015). Financing the future. Overseas Development Institute.
23. Griggs, D., Smith, M. S., Rockström, J., Öhman, M. C., Gaffney, O., Glaser, G., & Shyamsundar, P. (2014). An integrated framework for sustainable development goals. Ecology and Society, 19(4), 49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07082-190449
24. Güllü, M., & Kartal, Z. (2021). Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının 2030 yılına kadar tahmini. 19 Mayıs Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 288-313. https://doi.org/10.52835/19maysbd.849978
25. Hák, T., Janoušková, S., & Moldan, B. (2016). Sustainable Development Goals: A need for relevant indicators. Ecological Indicators, 60, 565-573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.003
26. Han, A. (2023). G7 Ülkelerinde Yenilenebilir Enerji ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Asimetrik Panel Nedensellik Analizi ile İncelenmesi. International Journal of Educational and Social Sciences, 2(2), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10060843
27. Haberal, Z., & Işık, A. (2024). Birleşmiş milletler sürdürülebilir kalkınma amaçları çerçevesinde Türkiye’deki büyükşehir belediyelerinin faaliyetlerinin değerlendirilmesi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(3), 1193-1222. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1485975
28. Hamidy, S. M., Zenginoğlu, A., & Karamancıoğlu, H. (2025). Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları Kapsamında Türkiye’nin Karbon Emisyonu ve Ekolojik Ayak İzi Tahmini. Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, 40(4), 827-841. https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1660060
29. Harwood, R. R. (2020). A history of sustainable agriculture. In C. A. Edwards, R. Lal, P. Madden, R. H. Miller & G. House (Eds.), Sustainable Agricultural Systems (pp. 3-19). CRC Press.
30. Huan, Y., Liang, T., Li, H., & Zhang, C. (2021). A systematic method for assessing progress of achieving sustainable development goals: A case study of 15 countries. Science of the Total Environment, 752, 141875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141875
31. Ionescu, G. H., Firoiu, D., Manda, A. M., Pîrvu, R., Jianu, E., & Antoniu, M. E. (2024). Progress towards the 2030 sustainable development goals for EU urban communities (SDG11). Sustainability, 16(11), 4513. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114513
32. Kaypak, Ş. (2011). Küreselleşme sürecinde sürdürülebilir bir kalkınma için sürdürülebilir bir çevre. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2011(1), 19-33.
33. Köse, E., Aplak, H. S., & Kabak, M. (2015). Yetersiz veri ortamında tahminler için örnek bir uygulama: Gri tahmin yöntemi. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 31(1), 82-88.
34. Küresel Amaçlar (2025). Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma İçin Küresel Amaçlar. 5 Mayıs, 2025 tarihinde https://www.kureselamaclar.org/ adresinden alınmıştır.
35. Leal Filho, W., Wall, T., Barbir, J., Alverio, G. N., Dinis, M. A. P., & Ramirez, J. (2022). Relevance of international partnerships in the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Communications, 13(1), 613. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28230-x
36. Lin, C. T., & Hsu, P. F. (2002). Forecast of non‐alcoholic beverage sales in Taiwan using the Grey theory. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 14(4), 3-12. https://doi.org/10.1108/13555850210764927
37. Liu, S., & Lin, Y. (2006). Grey information: Theory and practical applications. Springer London.
38. Liu, S., & Lin, Y. (2010). Grey systems theory and application. Springer-Verlag London Limited.
39. Mei, D. (2007). Software reliability estimation in grey system theory. In 2007 IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (pp. 299-302). IEEE.
40. Meydan, B. (2025). Sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri kapsamında TR33 bölgesi illerinin performanslarının TOPSIS yöntemi ile değerlendirilmesi. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(Özel Sayı), 227-249. https://doi.org/10.33707/akuiibfd.1610410
41. Owusu-Sekyere, E., Nyam, Y. S., Selelo, O. T., & Torsu, D. A. (2024). Sustainable Development Goal 13: Urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. In S. L. Hendriks and S. C. Babu (Eds.), Handbook on public policy and food security (pp. 311-321). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839105449.00035
42. Ozmehmet, E. (2008). Dünyada ve Tükiye sürdürülebilir kalkınma yaklaşımları. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 3(12), 1853-1876. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyu.48930
43. Perrings, C., & Ansuategi, A. (2000). Sustainability, growth and development. Journal of Economic Studies, 27(1/2), 19-54. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000005309
44. Reimers, F. M. (2024). The sustainable development goals and education, achievements and opportunities. International Journal of Educational Development, 104, 102965. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2023.102965
45. Rogers, P. P., Jalal, K. F., & Boyd, J. A. (2008). An introduction to sustainable development. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849770477
46. Sachs, J. D. (2012). From millennium development goals to sustainable development goals. The Lancet, 379(9832), 2206-2211. Sachs, J. D., Schmidt-Traub, G., Mazzucato, M., Messner, D., Nakicenovic, N., & Rockström, J. (2019). Six transformations to achieve the sustainable development goals. Nature Sustainability, 2(9), 805-814. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0352-9
47. Sachs, J.D., Lafortune, G., Fuller, G., Lablonovski, G. (2025). Financing Sustainable Development to 2030 and Mid-Century. Sustainable Development Report 2025. Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). https://doi.org/10.25546/111909
48. Silah, E., & Eğilmez, Ö. (2025). Eğitimde sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri üzerine bir değerlendirme. Sürdürülebilirlik, Yönetim & Ekonomi Dergisi, 1(1), 58-90.
49. Szymańska, A. (2021). Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in the European Union in the context of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. Sustainability, 13(13), 7409. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137409
50. Tavares, A. I. (2022). Life expectancy at 65, associated factors for women and men in Europe. European Journal of Ageing, 19(4), 1213-1227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10433-022-00695-1
51. Tekin, S., Ergüç, B., & Öz, S. (2022). Açık Veri ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri Kullanarak Türkiye için Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Göstergeleri Tahmini. İstatistik Araştırma Dergisi, 12(1), 56-67.
52. Tezcan, N. (2020). Sürdürülebilir Kalkinma Amaçlari Kapsaminda Türkiye’de Sağlik Göstergelerinin Analizi. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19 (Özel Ek), 202-217.
53. Tıraş, H. H. (2012). Sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve çevre: Teorik bir inceleme. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 57-73.
54. Tsai, C. H., Chang C. L., & Chen, L. (2003). Applying grey relational analysis to the vendor evaluation model. International Journal of The Computer, The Internet and Management, 11(3), 45-53.
55. Tsai, M. T., Hsiao, S. W., & Liang, W. K. (2005). Using grey theory to develop a model for forecasting the demand for telecommunications. Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences, 26(3), 535-547. https://doi.org/10.1080/02522667.2005.10699664
56. Uneze, E., Adeniran, A., & Ezechukwu, U. (2016). Transiting from plan to implementation: challenges and opportunities ahead for sustainable development goals in Nigeria. Southern Voice Occasional Paper, (30). United Nations. (2015). Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. United Nations.
57. Washington, H. (2015). Is ‘sustainability' the same as ‘sustainable development’?. In H. Kopnina and E. Shoreman-Ouimet (eds), Sustainability (pp. 359–376). Routledge.
58. Weiss, E. B. (1992). In fairness to future generations and sustainable development. American University International Law Review, 8(1), 19-26.
59. Witt, S. F., & Witt, C. A. (1992). Modeling and forecasting demand in tourism. Academic Press Ltd. World Bank Group. (2018). Women, business and the law 2018. World Bank Publications.
60. World Commission on Environment and Development. (1987). Our Common Future. Oxford University Press.
61. Xu, Z., Chau, S. N., Chen, X., Zhang, J., Li, Y., Dietz, T., ... & Liu, J. (2020). Assessing progress towards sustainable development over space and time. Nature, 577(7788), 74-78. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1846-3
62. Xie, N. M., & Liu, S. F. (2009). Discrete grey forecasting model and its optimization. Applied Mathematical Modeling, 33(2), 1173-1186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2008.01.011