BASIC DETERMINANTS OF SERVICES EXPORT IN TURKISH ECONOMY: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Year 2021, , 441 - 458, 29.09.2021

Aylin Koca , Nurtaç Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.835921

Cited By: 4

Abstract

The service sector is the most dynamic sector in both developed and developing economies because of its increasing share of national income, employment and its international trade potential. In developing economies such as Turkey, it is important to analyze the trade dynamics of the services sector in order to increase foreign currency revenues and to design appropriate policies for the development of the sector. This study investigates the relationship between services export and its main determinants in Turkey. The relation between services export and main determinants have been examined using quarterly data for the period between 1998:1 and 2019:4 by cointegration and causality analysis. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is a causality relationship from GDP, real effective exchange rate index, and foreign direct investments to services export in the short run. However, there is no causality relationship from education expenditures to services exports.

Keywords

services sector, international trade in services, services export, VECM, Turkey

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE HİZMET İHRACATININ TEMEL BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Hizmet sektörü, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde milli gelir ve istihdam içerisinde giderek artan payının yanı sıra taşıdığı uluslararası ticaret potansiyeli nedeniyle de en dinamik sektör konumundadır. Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde, hizmet ihracatından elde edilen döviz gelirlerinin artırılması amacıyla sektörün ticaret dinamiklerinin analiz edilmesinin ve sektöre yönelik uygun politikalar geliştirilmesinin, önem taşıdığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1998:1–2019:4 yılları arası çeyreklik verilerle hizmet ihracatı ile temel belirleyicileri arasındaki ilişki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizleri ile test edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre kısa dönemde GSYİH, reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan hizmet ihracat gelirlerine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Ancak eğitim harcamalarından hizmet ihracatına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır.

Keywords

hizmet sektörü, uluslararası hizmet ticareti, hizmet ihracatı, VECM, Türkiye

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