DISASTERS, HEALTH EXPENDITURES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIPS IN TÜRKİYE USING THE FOURIER APPROACH (1975–2023)

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of disasters and health expenditures on economic growth in Türkiye for the period 1975–2023. In the first stage, the stationarity of the series was examined using ADF and PP unit root tests. In the second stage, long-run relationships among the variables were investigated using the Fourier ADL and RALS Fourier ADL cointegration tests. In the third stage, long-run coefficients were estimated using the Dynamic Least Squares (DLS) method, and finally, a Fourier causality analysis was applied. The findings indicate that disasters have a negative and significant impact on economic growth, while health expenditures, fixed capital investments, and trade openness positively affect growth. Additionally, a one-way causal relationship from health expenditures to growth and a two-way causal relationship between trade openness and growth were identified. In line with the study’s findings, the following key policy recommendations emerge reducing disaster risks; supporting post-disaster reconstruction processes through institutional capacity building and the allocation of financial resources; increasing expenditures on the health sector to enhance labor productivity and efficiency; and promoting openness to ensure the sustainability of economic growth. The study aims to contribute to concrete policy design and implementation processes for decision-makers and practitioners in the fields of disaster management, public finance, and development policies.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Disasters
• Health Expenditures
• Fourier Time Series Analysis
• Türkiye

AFETLER, SAĞLIK HARCAMALARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE’DE UZUN DÖNEMLİ İLİŞKİLERİN FOURİER YAKLAŞIMIYLA ANALİZİ (1975–2023)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1975-2023 dönemi için Türkiye’de afetlerin ve sağlık harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. İlk aşamada, serilerin durağanlıkları ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile incelenmiştir. İkinci aşamada, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler Fourier ADL ve RALS Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testleri ile araştırılmıştır. Üçüncü aşamada Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DEKK) yöntemiyle uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiş, son olarak Fourier nedensellik analizi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, afetlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etki yarattığını; sağlık harcamaları, sabit sermaye yatırımları ve dışa açıklığın ise büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, sağlık harcamalarından büyümeye doğru tek yönlü, ticari açıklık ile büyüme arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları doğrultusunda; afet risklerinin azaltılması, afet sonrası yeniden yapılanma süreçlerinin kurumsal kapasite artırımı ve mali kaynak tahsisiyle desteklenmesi, sağlık sektörüne yapılan harcamaların artırılarak iş gücü verimliliği ve üretkenliğin artırılması ve dışa açıklığın teşvik edilerek ekonomik büyüme sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması temel politika önerileri olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Çalışma, afet yönetimi, kamu maliyesi ve kalkınma politikaları alanlarında görev alan karar alıcılar ve uygulayıcılar için somut politika tasarımı ve uygulama süreçlerine katkı sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Afetler
• Sağlık Harcamaları
• Fourier Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Türkiye

Ethical Statement

Etik onay gerekli değildir.

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