DISASTERS, HEALTH EXPENDITURES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIPS IN TÜRKİYE USING THE FOURIER APPROACH (1975–2023)

Öz

This study analyzes the impact of disasters and health expenditures on economic growth in Türkiye for the period 1975–2023. In the first stage, the stationarity of the series was examined using ADF and PP unit root tests. In the second stage, long-run relationships among the variables were investigated using the Fourier ADL and RALS Fourier ADL cointegration tests. In the third stage, long-run coefficients were estimated using the Dynamic Least Squares (DLS) method, and finally, a Fourier causality analysis was applied. The findings indicate that disasters have a negative and significant impact on economic growth, while health expenditures, fixed capital investments, and trade openness positively affect growth. Additionally, a one-way causal relationship from health expenditures to growth and a two-way causal relationship between trade openness and growth were identified. In line with the study’s findings, the following key policy recommendations emerge reducing disaster risks; supporting post-disaster reconstruction processes through institutional capacity building and the allocation of financial resources; increasing expenditures on the health sector to enhance labor productivity and efficiency; and promoting openness to ensure the sustainability of economic growth. The study aims to contribute to concrete policy design and implementation processes for decision-makers and practitioners in the fields of disaster management, public finance, and development policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Disasters
• Health Expenditures
• Fourier Time Series Analysis
• Türkiye

AFETLER, SAĞLIK HARCAMALARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE’DE UZUN DÖNEMLİ İLİŞKİLERİN FOURİER YAKLAŞIMIYLA ANALİZİ (1975–2023)

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1975-2023 dönemi için Türkiye’de afetlerin ve sağlık harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. İlk aşamada, serilerin durağanlıkları ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile incelenmiştir. İkinci aşamada, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler Fourier ADL ve RALS Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testleri ile araştırılmıştır. Üçüncü aşamada Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DEKK) yöntemiyle uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiş, son olarak Fourier nedensellik analizi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, afetlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etki yarattığını; sağlık harcamaları, sabit sermaye yatırımları ve dışa açıklığın ise büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, sağlık harcamalarından büyümeye doğru tek yönlü, ticari açıklık ile büyüme arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları doğrultusunda; afet risklerinin azaltılması, afet sonrası yeniden yapılanma süreçlerinin kurumsal kapasite artırımı ve mali kaynak tahsisiyle desteklenmesi, sağlık sektörüne yapılan harcamaların artırılarak iş gücü verimliliği ve üretkenliğin artırılması ve dışa açıklığın teşvik edilerek ekonomik büyüme sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması temel politika önerileri olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Çalışma, afet yönetimi, kamu maliyesi ve kalkınma politikaları alanlarında görev alan karar alıcılar ve uygulayıcılar için somut politika tasarımı ve uygulama süreçlerine katkı sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Afetler
• Sağlık Harcamaları
• Fourier Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Türkiye

Etik Beyan

Etik onay gerekli değildir.

Kaynakça

1. Aboubacar, B. & Xu, D. (2017). The Impact of Health Expenditure on the Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretical Economics Letters, 07(03), 615–622. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.[phone]
2. Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Danvers: Crown Publishing Group.
3. Acemoğlu, D. (2008). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Massachusetts: Princeton University Press.
4. AFAD (2022). Açıklamalı Afet Yönetimi Terimleri Sözlüğü.
5. Ak, R. (2012). The Relationship between Health Expenditures and Economic Growth: Turkish Case. Int.J.Buss.Mgt.Eco.Res, 3(1), 404–409.
6. Akar, S. (2013). Doğal Afetlerin Kamu Maliyesine ve Makro Ekonomiye Etkileri: Türkiye Değerlendirmesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21, 185–206. https://doi.org/10.11611/JMER197
7. Aktürk, İ. ve Albeni, M. (2002). Doğal Afetlerin Ekonomik Performans Üzerine Etkisi: 1999 yılında Türkiye’de Meydana Gelen Depremler ve Etkileri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1), 1–18.
8. Anand, S. & Ravallion, M. (1993). Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Public Services. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(1), 133–150. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.7.1.133

9. Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V. & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from Crude Oil Market. Economic Modelling, 67(C), 114–124.
10. Barro, R. J. (1996). Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study.
11. Barro, R. J. & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth (2nd ed.), London: The MIT Press.
12. Benali, N. (2022). The Dynamic Links Between Natural Disaster, Health Spending, and GDP Growth: A Case Study for Lower Middle-Income Countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 13(3), 1993–2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-021-00793-y
13. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. & Sevilla, J. (2004). The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach. World Development, 32(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002
14. Bozma, G., Başar, S. ve Künü, S. (2016). Eğitim ve Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10, 189–204.
15. Bülbül, Ş. ve Durgun Kaygısız, A. (2024). Ekonomik Büyümeyi Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(1), 57–76. https://doi.org/10.55827/ebd.1311945
16. Cavallo, E. & Noy, I. (2011). Natural Disasters and the Economy — A Survey. International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 5(1), 63–102. https://doi.org/10.1561/101.00000039
17. Chhibber, A. & Laajaj, R. (2013). The Interlinkages between Natural Disasters and Economic Development. D. Guha-Sapir & I. Santos (Der.), The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters (ss. 28–56). New York: Oxford Academic.
18. Christopoulos, D. K. & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076–1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
19. Coppola, D. P. (2015). Introduction to International Disaster Management. New York: Butterworth-Heinemann.
20. Çetin, M. ve Ecevit, E. (2010). Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Regresyon Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(2), 166–182.
21. EM-DAT (2020). Human cost of disasters: An overview of the last 20 years 2000-2019. https://www.undrr.org/publication/human-cost-disasters-overview-last-20-years-2000-2019 Erişim tarihi: 30.10.2025.
22. EM-DAT (2023). Earthquakes in Türkiye a Review from 1900 to Today. https://files.emdat.be/2023/09/CredCrunch72.pdf Erişim tarihi: 25.10.2025. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2023.96
23. EM-DAT (2024). 2023 Disasters in Numbers: A Significant Year of Disaster Impact (No. 7). https://files.emdat.be/reports/2023_EMDAT_report.pdf Erişim tarihi: 25.10.2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z
24. EM-DAT (2025). Disaster Year in Review 2024 (No. 78). https://files.emdat.be/2025/05/CredCrunch78.pdf Erişim tarihi: 22.10.2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105509
25. Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
26. Gupta, S., Verhoeven, M. & Tiongson, E. R. (2002). The effectiveness of government spending on education and health care in developing and transition economies. European Journal of Political Economy, 18(4), 717–737. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(02)00116-7
27. Hyejin, L., Lee, J. & Im Kyungso (2015). More powerful cointegration tests with non-normal errors. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 19(4), 397–413.
28. Ilkay, S. C., Yilanci, V., Ulucak, R. & Jones, K. (2021). Technology spillovers and sustainable environment: Evidence from time-series analyses with Fourier extension. Journal of Environmental Management, 294, 113033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113033
29. Im, K. S. &. & Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.01.003
30. Khan, M. T. I., Anwar, S., Sarkodie, S. A., Yaseen, M. R. & Nadeem, A. M. (2023). Do natural disasters affect economic growth? The role of human capital, foreign direct investment, and infrastructure dynamics. Heliyon, 9(1), e12911. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12911
31. Kızıl, B. C. ve Ceylan, R. (2018). Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 13(50), 197–209.
32. Klomp, J. & Valckx, K. (2014). Natural disasters and economic growth: A meta-analysis. Global Environmental Change, 26, 183–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.02.006
33. Kurt, S. (2015). Government Health Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Feder–Ram Approach for the Case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 441–447.
34. Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
35. Maurice, J. (2013). Mitigating disasters—a promising start. The Lancet, 381(9878), 1611–1613. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61008-9
36. Meng, M. (2013). Three essays on more powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors: Three essays on more powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors (Doctoral dissertation). University Of Alabama Libraries, Alabama.
37. Nazlioglu, S., Gormus, N. A. & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
38. Noy, I. (2009). The macroeconomic consequences of disasters. Journal of Development Economics, 88(2), 221–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.02.005
39. Özsağır, A. (2008). Dünden Bugüne Büyümenin Dinamiği. KMU İİBF Dergisi, 1(14).
40. Panwar, V. & Sen, S. (2019). Economic Impact of Natural Disasters: An Empirical Re-examination. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13(1), 109–139. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801018800087
41. Piabuo, S. M. & Tieguhong, J. C. (2017). Health expenditure and economic growth - a review of the literature and an analysis between the economic community for central African states (CEMAC) and selected African countries. Health Economics Review, 7(1), 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-017-0159-1
42. Popkova, E. G., Bogoviz, A. V., Pozdnyakova, U. A. & Przhedetskaya, N. V. (2018). Specifics of Economic Growth of Developing Countries. D. Endovitsky ve E. Popkova (Der.), Management of Changes in Socio-Economic Systems. Studies in Systems (ss. 139–146). Gewerbestrasse: Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72613-7_12
43. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
44. Sachs, J. & Warner, A. (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA.
45. Selim, S., Uysal, D. ve Eryiğit, P. (2014). Türkiye’de Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(3), 13–24.
46. Shabnam, N. (2014). Natural Disasters and Economic Growth: A Review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 5(2), 157–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-014-0022-5
47. Skidmore, M. & Toya, H. (2002). Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth? Economic Inquiry, 40(4), 664–687.
48. Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
49. Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica, 61(4), 783. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951763
50. Tierney, K. J., Lindell, M. K. & Perry, Ronald, W. (2001). Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.
51. Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
52. Todaro, M. P. & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic Development (Thirteenth Edition). Harlow: Pearson.
53. Toya, H. & Skidmore, M. (2007). Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters. Economics Letters, 94(1), 20–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.020
54. Yılancı, V., Ulucak, R., Zhang, Y. & Andreoni, V. (2023). The role of affluence, urbanization, and human capital for sustainable forest management in China: Robust findings from a new method of Fourier cointegration. Sustainable Development, 31(2), 812–824. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2421