Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Sürdürülebilir Çevre Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş AB Ülkelerinde LCC Hipotezinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 15-AB ülkesinde (Avusturya, Belçika, Danimarka, Finlandiya, Fransa, Almanya, Yunanistan, Macaristan, İrlanda, İtalya, Lüksemburg, Hollanda, Portekiz, İspanya ve İsveç) ekonomik büyüme ve kentleşmenin sürdürülebilir çevre üzerindeki etkisinin Yük Kapasite Eğrisi (LCC) hipotezi çerçevesinde test edilerek geçerliliğinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Yöntem: Çalışmada 1961-2022 döneminde seçilmiş 15-AB ülkesinde LCC hipotezinin geçerliliği Westerlund ECM Panel Eşbütünleşme, Ortalama Grup Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLSMG) ile Canning ve Pedroni (2008) Nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Bulgular: Çalışma bulguları ekonomik büyüme ile Yük Kapasite Faktörü (LCF) arasında U şeklinde bir ilişki olduğunu ve LCC hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Başlangıçta ekonomik büyümenin artmasıyla birlikte LCF azalma eğilimi göstermekte ancak belirli bir büyüme seviyesinden sonra Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla’daki (GSYİH) artış LCF üzerinde pozitif bir etki meydana getirmektedir. Ülke bazında elde edilen bulgular, Danimarka, Almanya, Macaristan, İrlanda, İtalya ve İspanya’da LCC hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca, uzun dönemde kentleşme oranındaki artışın LCF üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgu ekolojik modernizasyon teorisini desteklemektedir. Nedensellik analizleri ise ekonomik büyüme ile hem LCF hem de kentleşme arasında çift yönlü, kentleşmeden LCF’ye ise tek yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar: Çalışma, çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanmasında ekonomik büyüme ve kentleşme politikalarının önemli olduğunu ve dengeli bir şekilde yürütülmesi gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, elde edilen bulgular ülkelerin sürdürülebilir büyüme ve sürdürülebilir çevre stratejileri geliştirmelerine yönelik politika tasarımlarına katkı sunmayı hedeflemektedir.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir Büyüme
• Sürdürülebilir Çevre
• Kentleşme
• LCC Hipotezi
• AB Ülkeleri

The Impact of Economic Growth and Urbanisation on Sustainable Environment: Analysing the Validity of the LCC Hypothesis in Selected EU Countries

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to examine the validity of the impact of economic growth and urbanisation on the sustainable environment in 15 selected EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden) by testing the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis. Method: In the study, the validity of the LCC hypothesis in selected 15 EU countries for the period 1961-2022 is tested using Westerlund ECM Panel Cointegration, Dynamic Least Squares Mean Group (DOLSMG), and Canning and Pedroni's (2008) Causality methods. Findings: The findings of the study show that there is a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and Load Capacity Factor (LCF), and the LCC hypothesis is valid. Initially, LCF tends to decrease with increasing economic growth, but after a certain level of growth, the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) positively affects LCF. The country-specific findings confirm that the LCC hypothesis is valid in Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. Moreover, in the long run, the increase in urbanisation rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on LCF. This finding supports the ecological modernisation theory. Causality analyses reveal that there is a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and both LCF and urbanisation, and a unidirectional relationship from urbanisation to LCF. Conclusions: The study emphasises that economic growth and urbanisation policies are important in ensuring environmental sustainability and should be carried out in a balanced manner. In this direction, the findings aim to contribute to the policy designs of countries to develop sustainable growth and sustainable environmental strategies.

Keywords

• Sustainable Growth
• Sustainable Environment
• Urbanisation
• LCC Hypothesis
• EU Countries

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