Demografik Değişkenlerin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Örneği

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, demografik değişkenlerin doğrudan yabancı yatırım (DYY) girişi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmak amacıyla hazırlanmıştır. Demografik değişkenler ülkelerin yatırım kararı vermesinde hem üretim hem de tüketim bağlamında belirleyici bir faktördür. Özellikle sermaye yetersizliğinden dolayı dış finansmana ihtiyaç duyan gelişmekte olan ülkelerin, ekonomik büyümeyi sürdürülebilir kılması ve gelişmiş ülkelerin refah seviyelerine ulaşabilmesi için, DYY’ye ihtiyaçları vardır. Bu bağlamda, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin yabancı yatırımcı çekebilmesinde, ülkelerin demografik yapıları büyük önem taşımaktadır.

Yöntem: Çalışmada panel veri kullanılmış ve 97 adet gelişmekte olan ülkeye ait 2009-2022 yılları arası yıllık veri Sabit Etkiler modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu çerçevede, regresyon parametreleri Driscoll-Kraay standart hatalarıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Açıklayıcı değişkenler, nüfus artışı, eğitim seviyesi, sanayi sektöründeki kadın istihdamı, hizmet sektöründeki kadın istihdamı ve doğumda beklenen yaşam süresi iken bağımlı değişken gelişmekte olan ülkelere ait DYY girişidir.

Bulgular: Analiz sonuçlarına göre, nüfus artışı ve sanayi sektöründeki kadın istihdamının DYY girişi üzerindeki etkisi anlamlı ve pozitif iken hizmet sektöründeki kadın istihdamı, eğitim seviyesi ve doğumda beklenen yaşam süresinin DYY girişi üzerindeki etkisi anlamlı ve negatiftir. Yapılan ek analizlerin sonuçları, temel regresyon sonuçlarını desteklemektedir; demografik değişkenlerin katsayılarının işaretleri değişmemiş ve büyük ölçüde anlamlı kalmaya devam etmiştir.

Sonuçlar: Elde edilen bulgular, çokuluslu şirketlerin yatırım tercihi yaparken, öncelikle, üretimde faydalanabileceği eğitimsiz ucuz işgücünü önemsediğini göstermektedir. Nitekim, özellikle Çin’in zenginleşmesinde, emek yoğun fabrikalarda gerçekleşen seri üretimin büyük etkisi olmuştur. Öte yandan, teknolojik gelişmeler mevcut konjonktürü etkilemekte ve fabrikalarda otomasyonun artmasıyla beraber işgücüne olan ihtiyacı azaltmaktadır. DYY’yi ülkelerine çekmek isteyen gelişmekte olan ülkeler, teknolojik gelişmeleri de göz önünde bulundurarak, demografik özelliklere önem veren politikalar geliştirmelidir. Bu politikalara örnek olarak, sanayi sektöründeki kadın istihdamının artırılması ve bireylerin dijital okur yazarlığını artıran eğitim politikaları gösterilebilir.

Keywords

• Demografi
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler
• Nüfus Artışı
• İşgücü

Impact of Demographic Variables on Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of Developing Countries

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to investigate the impact of demographic variables on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in developing countries. Demographic variables are a determining factor in countries' investment decisions in terms of both production and consumption. Developing countries, especially those in need of external financing due to capital shortages, require FDI inflows to sustain economic growth and to reach prosperity levels of the developed countries. In this context, demographic structure of the developing countries is of great importance in attracting FDI.

Method: The sample of the study consists of 97 developing countries. The dataset is annual and covers the period from 2009 to 2022. The fixed effects model with the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors was used to estimate the regression parameters. The explanatory variables are population growth, education level, female employment in the industrial sector, female employment in the service sector, and life expectancy at birth, while the dependent variable is FDI inflows to developing countries.

Results: Based on the regression results, population growth and female employment in the industrial sector positively impact FDI inflows, whereas female employment in the service sector, education level, and life expectancy at birth negatively impact them. Robustness check results also indicate that the coefficients of the explanatory variables remained significant and in the same direction.

Conclusion: The findings reveal that when making investment decisions, multinational companies prioritize uneducated cheap workforce, which they can utilize in production. In fact, mass production in labor-intensive factories has had a significant impact on China's prosperity. On the other hand, technological advances influence the current economic environment, decreasing the need for labor due to automation in factories. As a policy recommendation, developing countries seeking ways to attract FDI inflow should develop policies that prioritize demographic characteristics while considering technological advancements. Examples of these policies include increasing women's employment in the industrial sector and educational policies that improve individuals' digital literacy.

Keywords

• Demography
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Developing Countries
• Population Growth
• Labor Force

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