Probabilistic Liability and Judicial Insurance for Environmental Risks

Year 2025, Volume: 83 Issue: 2, 605 - 629, 21.08.2025

Abdulkadir Nacar

Abstract

This study analyzes the responsibility framework for environmental risks from legal, economic, and philosophical perspectives, focusing on both individual and state-level accountability. Recognizing the need for proactive (ex-ante) risk management, we challenge the current frameworks that only respond after damage occurs. Tort liability, which operates on the damage-compensation axis, has disadvantages in terms of environmental protection. Besides, pre-determined norms can lead to standards that are either excessively strict or too lenient than necessary before damage occurs. Moreover, the stochastic nature of environmental risks renders them unsuitable for purely normative consideration. We argue that pure normative approaches fail to consider the case-specific and dynamic nature of environmental risks. Instead, our study proposes probabilistic liability. The legal foundation of probabilistic liability lies in the recognition that the customary no-harm obligation encompasses the risk of harm as well. The research question of our study is: What is the legal consequence of causing a risk of harm? Drawing on insights from the theoretical arguments of the reality of risk, probabilistic causation, and risk attribution, we propose an innovative solution: courts mandating “judicial insurance” for those posing environmental risks. Courts may identify the coverage gap resulting from activities altering risk values and impacting sustainability in the incident under consideration. To address this gap, courts may enforce insurance obligations on operators under market conditions. This introduces a probabilistic liability model applicable to both states and individuals. This novel approach offers a more effective and adaptable mechanism for managing environmental risks while ensuring accountability and sustainability.

Keywords

Environmental Risk , Environmental Litigation , Probabilistic Liability , Reality of Risk , Risk Attribution , Judicial Insurance

References

• Aristotle, Ross WD and Urmson JO, The Nicomachean ethics (Oxford University Press 1980) google scholar
• Beck U, Risk Society : Towards a New Modernity (Sage Publications 1992) google scholar
• Busnelli FD and others, Principles of European Tort Law: Text and Commentary (Oral T, Göka ME and Gündüz E trs, Oniki Levha 2021) google scholar
• Creutz K, State Responsibility in the International Legal Order: A Critical Appraisal (Cambridge University Press 2020) google scholar
• Davis M, Thinking like an engineer: studies in the ethics of a profession (Oxford University Press 1998) google scholar
• Deschenaux H and Tercier P, La responsabilité civile (Özdemir S tr, Kadıoğlu 1983) google scholar
• Douglas M, Risk Acceptability According to the Social Sciences (Russell Sage Foundation 1985) google scholar
• Douglas M and Wildavsky AB, Risk and culture : an essay on the selection of technical and environmental dangers (1st pbk. print edn, University of California Press 1983) google scholar
• Eren F, Borçlar Hukuku Genel Hükümler (Yetkin 2021) google scholar
• Faure MG and Partain RA, Environmental Law and Economics: Theory and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2019) google scholar
• Faure MG and Verheij A, Shifts in Compensation for Environmental Damage, vol 21 (Springer 2007) google scholar
• Fischer JM and Ravizza M, Responsibility and Control: A Theory of Moral Responsibility (Cambridge University Press 1998) google scholar
• Freeman PK and Kunreuther H, Managing Environmental Risk through Insurance (Kluwer 1997) google scholar
• Friedman LS, Microeconomic policy analysis / Lee S. Friedman (McGraw-Hill 1984) google scholar
• Gürkan Ü, Hukuki Realizm Akımı (Sevinç Matbaası 1967) google scholar
• Hansson SO, Setting the Limit: Occupational Health Standards and the Limits of Science (Oxford University Press 1998) google scholar
• Hart HLA, Punishment and Responsibility: Essays in the Philosophy of Law (Oxford University Press 1968) google scholar
• Işıktaç Y and Metin S, Hukuk Metodolojisi (Filiz 2003) google scholar
• Jhering Rv, Geist des römischen Rechts auf den verschiedenen Stufen seiner Entwicklung, vol 3 (Breitkopf und Härtel 1865) google scholar
• Kılıç T, Yeni Bilim Bağlantısallık Yeni Kültür Yaşamdaşlık (Ayrıntı 2023) google scholar
• Le Grand J, Equity and Choice: an Essay in Economics and Applied Philosophy (Harper Collins 1991) google scholar
• Lumer C, The Greenhouse: A Welfare Assessment and Some Morals (University Press of America 2002) google scholar
• MacLean D, Values at Risk (Rowman & Allanheld 1985) google scholar
• Magnus U, Unification of Tort Law: Damages (Kluwer Law International 2001) google scholar
• Martin MW and Schinzinger R, Ethics in engineering (4th , [international ] edn, McGraw-Hill 2005) google scholar
• Mettler FA and Moseley R, Medical Effects of Ionizing Radiation (Grune and Stratton 1985) google scholar
• OECD, Environmental Risks and Insurance (2003) google scholar
• –––, Guidance on Sustainability Impact Assessment (2010) google scholar
• Oftinger K, Schweizerisches Haftpflichtrecht-I (Polygraphischer Verlag 1975) google scholar
• Ogus A, Regulation: Legal Form and Economic Theory (Clarendon Press 1997) google scholar
• Owen A, The Law of Insurance Warranties: Flawed Reform and a New Perspective (Taylor & Francis 2021) google scholar
• Renn O, Concepts of Risk : A Classification (Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Stuttgart 2010) google scholar
• Revesz RL and Livermore MA, Retaking Rationality: How Cost Benefit Analysis Can Better Protect the Environment and Our Health (Oxford University Press 2008) google scholar
• Rob Merkin and Jenny Steele, Insurance and the Law of Obligations (Oxford University Press 2013) google scholar
• Rudall J, Compensation for Environmental Damage Under International Law (Routledge 2021) google scholar
• Sanlı KC, Haksız Fiil Hukukunun Ekonomik Analizi (Arıkan 2007) google scholar
• Sen A, On Ethics and Economics (Basil Blackwell 1987) google scholar
• Shrader-Frechette KS, (University of California Press 1991) google scholar
• Slovic P, The perception of risk (Earthscan Publications 2000) google scholar
• Smith A, An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations (ed. R.H. Campbell, A.S. Skinner, and W. B. Todd) (Oxford University Press 1976) google scholar Spinoza B, The Ethics (Elwes RHM tr, Blackmask 2001) google scholar
• Stempel JW, Swisher PN and Knutsen ES, Principles of Insurance Law (LexisNexis 2012) google scholar
• van Boom WH, Lukas M and Kissling C, Tort and Regulatory Law (Springer Vienna 2007) google scholar
• van de Poel I and Royakkers L, Ethics, Technology and Engineering (2011) google scholar
• Wallace RJ, Responsibility and the Moral Sentiments (Harvard University Press 1994) google scholar
• ‘Probabilistic liability’ in Steel S (ed), Proof of Causation in Tort Law (Cambridge University Press 2015) google scholar
• Anderson GM and Crerar DA, ‘Statistical Interpretation of Entropy’ in Thermodynamics in Geochemistry: The Equilibrium Model (Oxford Academic, Oxford University Press 1993) <https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195064643.003.0010> accessed 6/1/2023 google scholar
• Berner B, ‘Constructing risk and safety in technological practice: an introduction’ in Berner B and Summerton J (eds), Constructing Risk and Safety in Technological Practice (Routledge 2003) <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9566.2007.01059_ 3.x> google scholar
• Dougherty ER, ‘The Evolution of Scientific Knowledge: From Certainty to Uncertainty ’ in (SPIE 2018) <https://lens.org/006-835-727-815-897> google scholar
• Faure M, ‘Economic Analysis’ in Widmer P and Kissling C (eds), Unification of Tort Law: Fault (Kluwer Law International 2005) google scholar
• Fitzmaurice M, ‘Due Diligence in the Use of International Watercourses’ in Krieger H, Peters A and Kreuzer L (eds), Due Diligence in the International Legal Order (Oxford University Press 2020) google scholar
• Gibson M, ‘Quantified Risk Assessment’ in Humber JM and Almeder RF (eds), Quantitative Risk Assessment: Biomedical Ethics Reviews · 1986 (Humana Press 1987) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-59259-656-0_7> google scholar
• Hansson SO, ‘Risk and safety in technology’ in Gabbay DM and others (eds), Philosophy of Technology and Engineering Sciences (Elsevier Science 2009) <https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=prvCTW4V7jEC> google scholar
• –––, ‘A Panorama of the Philosophy of Risk ’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer 2012) google scholar
• Huber BR, ‘Temporal Spillovers’ in Huber BR and Mathis K (eds), Environmental Law and Economics (Springer 2017) google scholar
• Kampourakis K and others, ‘Uncertainty Is Inherent in Science’ in Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance (Oxford Academic, Oxford University Press 2019) <https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190871666.003.0011> accessed 5/17/2023 google scholar
• Lahnstein C, ‘Aggregation and Divisibility of Damage: Insurance Aspects’ in Oliphant K (ed), Aggregation and Divisibility of Damage (Springer Vienna 2009) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-211-92209-5_17> google scholar
• Lidskog R and Sundqvist G, ‘Sociology of Risk’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer Netherlands 2012) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_40> google scholar
• Möller N, ‘The Concepts of Risk and Safety’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer 2012) google scholar
• Nickel PJ and Vaesen K, ‘Risk and Trust’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer Netherlands 2012) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_34> google scholar
• Oliphant K and Steininger M, ‘Aggregation and Divisibility of Damage in Tort Law and Insurance: Comparative Summary’ in Oliphant K (ed), Aggregation and Divisibility of Damage (Springer Vienna 2009) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-211-92209-5_18> google scholar
• Rayner S, ‘Cultural theory and risk analysis’ in Krimsky S and Golding D (eds), Social Theories of Risk (Praeger 1992) google scholar
• Riesch H, ‘Levels of Uncertainty’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer Netherlands 2012) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_4> google scholar
• Roeser S, ‘Moral Emotions as Guide to Acceptable Risk’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer Netherlands 2012) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_32> google scholar
• Sadeleer Nd and others, ‘The UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes: Its Contribution to International Water Cooperation’ in The Role of the Precautionary Principle in the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Brill | Nijhoff 2015) <https://brill.com/view/book/edcoll/ 9789004291584/B9789004291584-s013.xml> google scholar
• Siew R, ‘Analytics for Sustainability Issues’ in Sustainability Analytics Toolkit for Practitioners: Creating Value in the 21st Century (Springer Nature Singapore 2023) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8237-8_9> google scholar
• –––, ‘Sustainability Decision Analytics’ in Sustainability Analytics Toolkit for Practitioners: Creating Value in the 21st Century (Springer Nature Singapore 2023) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8237-8_4> google scholar
• Sinnott-Armstrong W, ‘It's Not My Fault: Global Warming and Individual Moral Obligations’ in Sinnott-Armstrong W and Howarth R (eds), Perspectives on Climate Change (Elsevier 2005) google scholar
• Taebi B, ‘Intergenerational Risks of Nuclear Energy’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer 2012) google scholar
• van de Poel I and Fahlquist JN, ‘Risk and Responsibility’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer Netherlands 2012) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_35> google scholar
• Viñuales JE, ‘Due Diligence in International Environmental Law: A Fine- grained Cartography’ in Krieger H, Peters A and Kreuzer L (eds), Due Diligence in the International Legal Order (Oxford University Press 2020) google scholar
• Weirich P, ‘Multi-Attribute Approaches to Risk’ in Roeser S and others (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk (Springer Netherlands 2012) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_20> google scholar
• Union Carbide Corporation & Others v. Union of India & Others (Supreme Court of India) google scholar
• Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons (International Court of Justice) google scholar
• Case Concerning Gabčíkovo- Nagymaros Project (Hungary/Slovakia) (İnternational Jourt of Justice) google scholar The Mox Plant Case (Ireland v. United Kingdom) (ITLOS) google scholar
• Request for provisional measures and statement of case submitted on behalf of Ireland (ITLOS) google scholar
• Pulp Mills on the River Uruguay (Argentina v. Uruguay) (International Court of Justice) google scholar
• Certain Activities Carried Out by Nicaragua in the Border Area (Costa Rica v. Nicaragua) (International Court of Justice) google scholar
• Case of Verein Klimaseniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland google scholar
• Poel Ivd, The Relation Between Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Responsibility (2011) google scholar
• Cockburn H, ‘Sellafield nuclear decommissioning work 'significantly' delayed and nearly £1bn over budget, report reveals’ The Independent <https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/sellafield-nuclear-power-plant-decommission-overspend-delays-budget-report-a8609671.html> accessed 03/06/2023 google scholar
• Humphreys S, ‘A Swiss human rights budget?’ EJIL Talk <https://www.ejiltalk.org/a-swiss-human-rights-budget/> accessed 22/04/2024 google scholar
• Look B, ‘Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz’ The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy <https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2020/entries/ leibniz/> google scholar
• NAIC, ‘Peer-To-Peer (P2P) Insurance ’ <https://content.naic.org/cipr-topics/peer-peer-p2p-insurance> accessed 04/05/2022 google scholar
• Nedeski N and Nollkaemper A, ‘A Guide to Tackling the Collective Causation Problem in International Climate Change Litigation’ EJIL Talk <https://www.ejiltalk.org/a-guide-to-tackling-the-collective-causation-problem-in-international-climate-change-litigation/> google scholar
• Baumol WJ and Oates WE, ‘The Use of Standards and Prices for Protection of the Environment’ [Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley] 73 The Swedish Journal of Economics 42 google scholar
• Bond VP, ‘The Cancer Risk Attributable to Radiation Exposure: Some Practical Problems’ 40 Health Phys 108 google scholar
• Bradbury JA, ‘The Policy Implications of Differing Concepts of Risk’ [Sage Publications, Inc.] 14 Science, Technology, & Human Values 380 google scholar
• Braham M and van Hees M, ‘An Anatomy of Moral Responsibility’ 121 Mind 601 google scholar
• Broude T, ‘Behavioral International Law ’ [The University of Pennsylvania Law Review] 163 University of Pennsylvania Law Review 1099 google scholar
• Campbell S and Currie G, ‘Against Beck:In Defence of Risk Analysis’ 36 Philosophy of the Social Sciences 149 google scholar
• Coase RH, ‘The Problem of Social Cost’ [[University of Chicago Press, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, University of Chicago Law School]] 3 The Journal of Law & Economics 1 google scholar
• Ehrlich I and Posner RA, ‘An Economic Analysis of Legal Rulemaking’ 3 The Journal of Legal Studies 257 google scholar
• Erkiner HH and Nacar A, ‘Strengthening Environmental Soft Law Commitments with the Principle of Pacta Sunt Servanda’ 21 Galatasaray Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi google scholar
• Estep SD, ‘Radiation Injuries and Statistics: The Need for a New Approach to Injury Litigation’ [The Michigan Law Review Association] 59 Michigan Law Review 259 google scholar
• Fahlquist JN, ‘Moral responsibility for environmental problems—individual or institutional?’ 22 Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 109 google scholar
• Feleppa R, ‘Epistemic utility and theory acceptance: Comments on Hempel’ 46 Synthese 413 google scholar
• Fischhoff B and others, ‘How Safe Is Safe Enough? A Psychometric Study of Attitudes Toward Technological Risks and Benefits’ 9 Policy Sciences 127 google scholar
• Frankfurt HG, ‘Alternate Possibilities and Moral Responsibility’ 66 Journal of Philosophy 829 google scholar
• Gardiner SM, ‘A core precautionary principle’ 14 Journal of Political Philosophy 33 google scholar
• Giddens A, ‘Risk and Responsibility’ [[Modern Law Review, Wiley]] 62 The Modern Law Review 1 google scholar
• Gold S, ‘Causation in Toxic Torts: Burdens of Proof, Standards of Persuasion, and Statistical Evidence’ [The Yale Law Journal Company, Inc.] 96 The Yale Law Journal 376 google scholar
• Hare RM, ‘Rawls' "a theory of justice" - I’ 23 Philosophical Quarterly google scholar
• Harsanyi JC, ‘Can the Maximin Principle Serve as a Basis for Morality? A Critique of John Rawls's Theory’ [Cambridge University Press] 69 American Political Science Review 594 google scholar
• –––, ‘Bayesian decision theory, subjective and objective probabilities, and acceptance of empirical hypotheses’ 57 Synthese 341 google scholar
• Hempel CG, ‘Inductive inconsistencies’ 12 Synthese 439 google scholar
• Hopster J, ‘Climate Uncertainty, Real Possibilities and the Precautionary Principle’ Erkenntnis google scholar
• Hsu S-L, ‘The Accidental Postmodernists: A New Era of Skepticism in Environmental Policy’ 3 Vermont Law Review google scholar
• Landes WM and Posner RA, ‘Causation in Tort Law: An Economic Approach’ [[University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Law School]] 12 The Journal of Legal Studies 109 google scholar
• Levi I, ‘On the Seriousness of Mistakes’ [Cambridge University Press] 29 Philosophy of Science 47 google scholar
• Mastrandrea MD and others, ‘The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups’ 108 Climatic Change 675 google scholar
• Misumi Y and Sato Y, ‘Estimation of average hazardous-event-frequency for allocation of safety-integrity levels’ 66 Reliability Engineering & System Safety 135 google scholar
• Morag-Levine N, ‘The History of Precaution’ [Oxford University Press] 62 The American Journal of Comparative Law 1095 google scholar
• Neumann JE and others, ‘Climate Damage Functions for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States’ 14 google scholar
• Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 25 google scholar
• Oates WE, ‘Book Review: The Uncertain Search for Environmental Quality’ 124 University of Pennsylvania Law Review 864 google scholar
• Ord T, Hillerbrand R and Sandberg A, ‘Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes’ 13 Journal of Risk Research 191 google scholar
• Ove hansson S, ‘Weighing Risks and Benefits’ 23 Topoi 145 google scholar
• Pattyn F, Ritz C and Hanna E, ‘The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets under 1.5 °C Global Warming’ 8 Nature Climate Change 1053 google scholar
• Peterson M, ‘What Is a de Minimis Risk?’ [Palgrave Macmillan Journals] 4 Risk Management 47 google scholar
• Powell R, ‘What's the Harm? An Evolutionary Theoretical Critique of the Precautionary Principle’ 20 Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 181 google scholar
• Rizzo MJ and Arnold FS, ‘Causal Apportionment in the Law of Torts: An Economic Theory’ 80 Columbia Law Review 1399 google scholar
• Rosenberg D, ‘The Causal Connection in Mass Exposure Cases: A “Public Law” Vision of the Tort System’ 97 Harvard Law Review 851 google scholar
• Roser D, ‘The Irrelevance of the Risk-Uncertainty Distinction’ 23 Science and Engineering Ethics 1387 google scholar
• Rowell A, ‘Time in Cost-Benefit Analysis’ 4 UC Irvine Law Review 1215 google scholar
• Thompson PB, ‘Risking or being willing: Hamlet and the DC-10’ 19 The Journal of Value Inquiry 301 google scholar
• Trakman L, ‘Ex Aequo et Bono: De-mystifying an Ancient Concept ’ 8 Chicago Journal of International Law 621 google scholar
• van Aaken A, ‘Behavioral International Law and Economics’ 55 Harvard International Law Journal 421 google scholar
• Viñuales JE, ‘Legal Techniques for Dealing with Scientific Uncertainty in Environmental Law’ 43 Vanderbilt Law Review 437 google scholar
• Wolff J, ‘Risk, Fear, Blame, Shame and the Regulation of Public Safety’ [Cambridge University Press] 22 Economics & Philosophy 409 google scholar
• Yntema HE, ‘Rational Basis of Legal Science’ 31 Columbia Law Review 925 google scholar
• Draft articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, with Commentaries (2 edn, Yearbook of the International Law Commission 2001) google scholar
• Türk Borçlar Kanunu (2011) google scholar
• Commission IL, Draft Articles on Prevention of Transboundary Harm from Hazardous Activities (Yearbook of the International Law Commission 2001) google scholar
• –––, Draft Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts (Yearbook of International Law Commission 2001) google scholar
• PCA, Permanent Court of Arbitration Optional Rules for Arbitration of Disputes Relating to Natural Resources and/or the Environment (2001) google scholar
• Insurance Contract Law Issues Paper 2 Warranties (2006) google scholar
• NCRP, Statement No. 7 (1992) google scholar
• Sonnemann GW, ‘Environmental Damage Estimations in Industrial Process Chain’ (Universitat Rovira i Virgili 2002) google scholar