The Long-term Relationship between Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

This article explores the effect of credit growth on the current account deficit in Türkiye. Although the effects of structural variables are generally analyzed in research on the current account deficit, the effect of financial variables is given less importance. For this reason, there are not enough studies in the literature addressing the effect of financial variables on the current account. The research will fill this gap in the literature. ARDL (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between the current account deficit and financial variables.The current account is used as the dependent variable and financial variables (credit growth, financial depth), economic growth, budget balance, real interest rate and real exchange rate are used as explanatory variables. 2006-2022 quarterly data is used in the analysis. The findings show that the increase in credit growth in Türkiye leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. Additionally, a negative relationship is detected between financial depth and the current account balance.

Keywords

• credit growth
• financial depth
• money supply
• current account deficit
• ARDL

Kredi Büyümesi ile Cari Açık Arasındaki Uzun Dönemli İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu makale, Türkiye’de kredi büyümesinin cari açık üzerindeki etkisini araştırılmaktadır. Cari açık üzerine yapılan araştırmalarda genellikle yapısal değişkenlerin etkileri analiz edilmesine rağmen finansal değişkenlerin etkisi daha az incelenmiştir. Bu araştırmanın literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurması beklenmektedir. Cari açık ve finansal değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik olarak analiz etmek için ARDL (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag) modeli kurulmuş, bağımlı değişken olarak cari işlemler hesabı, açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak finansal değişkenler (kredi büyümesi, finansal derinlik) ekonomik büyüme, bütçe dengesi, reel faiz ve reel kur modele dahil edilmiştir. 2006-2022 çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılan analizde bulgular, Türkiye’de kredi büyümesindeki artışın cari işlemler dengesinde bozulmaya yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, finansal derinlik ve cari işlemler dengesi arasında negatif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmektedir.

Keywords

• Kredi büyümesi
• finansal derinlik
• para arzı
• cari açık
• ARDL

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