The Long-term Relationship between Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit: The Case of Türkiye

Öz

This article explores the effect of credit growth on the current account deficit in Türkiye. Although the effects of structural variables are generally analyzed in research on the current account deficit, the effect of financial variables is given less importance. For this reason, there are not enough studies in the literature addressing the effect of financial variables on the current account. The research will fill this gap in the literature. ARDL (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between the current account deficit and financial variables.The current account is used as the dependent variable and financial variables (credit growth, financial depth), economic growth, budget balance, real interest rate and real exchange rate are used as explanatory variables. 2006-2022 quarterly data is used in the analysis. The findings show that the increase in credit growth in Türkiye leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. Additionally, a negative relationship is detected between financial depth and the current account balance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• credit growth
• financial depth
• money supply
• current account deficit
• ARDL

Kredi Büyümesi ile Cari Açık Arasındaki Uzun Dönemli İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu makale, Türkiye’de kredi büyümesinin cari açık üzerindeki etkisini araştırılmaktadır. Cari açık üzerine yapılan araştırmalarda genellikle yapısal değişkenlerin etkileri analiz edilmesine rağmen finansal değişkenlerin etkisi daha az incelenmiştir. Bu araştırmanın literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurması beklenmektedir. Cari açık ve finansal değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik olarak analiz etmek için ARDL (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag) modeli kurulmuş, bağımlı değişken olarak cari işlemler hesabı, açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak finansal değişkenler (kredi büyümesi, finansal derinlik) ekonomik büyüme, bütçe dengesi, reel faiz ve reel kur modele dahil edilmiştir. 2006-2022 çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılan analizde bulgular, Türkiye’de kredi büyümesindeki artışın cari işlemler dengesinde bozulmaya yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, finansal derinlik ve cari işlemler dengesi arasında negatif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kredi büyümesi
• finansal derinlik
• para arzı
• cari açık
• ARDL

Kaynakça

1. Atoyan, R., J. M. ve Rahman, J. (2013). Rebalancing: Evidence from current account adjustment in Europe. IMF Working Paper, No: 13/74.
2. Blanchard, O. & Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the Euro Area: The end of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 33(2), 147-210.
3. Brissmis, S. N., Handroyiannis, G., Papazoğlu, C., Tsaveas, N. T., ve Vasardani, M. (2010). Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change, European Central Bank. Working Paper Series, No: 1243.
4. Calderon, C.; Chong, A. & Loayza, N. (2000). Determinants of current account deficit in developing countries. Policy Research Working Paper Series, No: 2398, The World Bank.
5. Clarida, R. (2005). Japan, China, and the U. S. current account deficit. CATO Journal, 25(1), 111-114.
6. Chinn, M. D. ve Ito, H. (2005). Current account balances, financial development and ınstitutions: Assaying the world “saving glut”. NBER Working Paper, No: 11761.
7. Chinn, M. ve Prasad, E. S. (2000). Medium-term determinants of current accounts in ındustrial and developing countries: An empirical exploration. NBER Working Paper, No: 7581.
8. Dedeoglu, D. (2020). Nonlinear ımpact of credits on current account balance: The case of Turkey. PressAcademia Procedia, 12(1), 79-79. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1355

9. Edward, S. (1995). Why are saving rates so different across countries?”: An ınternational comparative analysis. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 5097.
10. Ekinci, M. F., Erdem, F. P., ve Kılınç, Z. (2014). Credit growth, current account and financial depth. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper, No: 14/21.
11. Feldstein, M. ve Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic savings and ınternational capital flows. Economic Journal, 314-329.
12. Ganioğlu, A. (2013). rapid credit growth and current account deficit as the leading determinants of financial crises. Economics Discussion Papers 2013-35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
13. Güneş, S., & Yıldırım, C. (2017). Kredi Genişlemesi İle Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Aydın İktisat Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 2, Sayı 1, 43-60.
14. Hermann, S. & Winkler, A. (2008). Real Convergence, Financial Markets, and the Current Account Emerging Europe versus Emerging Asia. European Central Bank, Occasional Paper Series, No. 88/June.
15. IMF (2014), Turkey-Country Report No: 14/330.
16. IMF (2013). External Balance Assessment (EBA): Technical background. http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/eba/pdf/080913.pdf.
17. Işık, N., Yılmaz, S. S., ve Kılınç, E. C. (2017). The relationship between current account balance and types of credits: An application on selected oecd countries. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 105-126. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.345173
18. Kamas, L. & Joyce, J. (1993). Money, Income and prices under exchange rates: Evidence from causality tests and VARs. Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4), 747-768.
19. Martin, P. & Rey, H. (2004). Financial super-markets: Size matters for asset trade, forthcoming. Journal of International Economics, 64, 335-361.
20. Mendoza, E. G., Quadrini, V., ve Rios-Rull, J. V. (2006). Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances. 7th. Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, Hosted by IMF, Washington DC.
21. Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/ardl.pdf.
22. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
23. Rogg, C. S. (2000). The ımpact of access to credit on the saving behavior of microentrepreneurs. Evidence from 3 Latin American Countries. Inter-American Development Bank, April 2000.
24. Sezal, L. (2023). Banka kredileri ile cari açık arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için asimetrik nedensellik analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (50), 34-44. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1219328
25. Soydan, A. (2016). Does Credit Growth 'Cause' Current Account Deficits? Evidence from Turkey. Advances in Economics and Business, 4 (2): 102-116.
26. TCMB (2019). Finansal İstikrar Raporu, 2019.
27. World Bank (2013). Turkey-sustaining high growth: The role of domestic savings, Washington DC.
28. Uslu, N. Ç. ve Karahan, P. (2016). The relation between credit volume and current account deficit a dynamic analysis for Turkey. Econ World 2016 Londra , Londrina, Brazil, pp.1-11.