Enflasyon Yakınsaması Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hala Geçerli mi: Yakınsamanın Belirleyicileri Neler?

Abstract

Enflasyon, hayat pahalılığını ölçmenin yanı sıra, finansal piyasaları ve ekonominin tüm alanlarını etkileyen önemli bir makroekonomik değişkendir. COVID-19 sonrası arz şokları ve tedarik zinciri aksaklıkları fiyatlama davranışlarını etkilemiş ve özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde olmak üzere dünya genelinde enflasyonist bir ortam yaratmıştır. Aynı zamanda literatürde enflasyon yakınsamasına ilişkin tartışmalar da devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2008 küresel finansal krizi sonrası dönemde gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki enflasyon yakınsaması Phillips-Sul Club Yakınsama yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Aylık frekanstaki tüketici fiyat endeksinin yıllık enflasyonu dikkate alınmıştır. Bulgular, tüm panel için yakınsama olmadığını göstermektedir. Ancak, biri daha yüksek enflasyon oranına sahip olmak üzere iki yakınsama kulübü bulunmaktadır. Bulgular ayrıca çoğu ülkenin bir enflasyon yakınsama süreci yaşadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla, bu çalışma enflasyon yakınsamasının belirleyicilerini analiz ederek literatürü genişletmektedir. Bu çalışmadan da anlaşılacağı üzere, en önde gelen faktör ülkelerin uyguladığı döviz kuru rejimidir. Döviz kurlarının kontrollü bir aralıkta esneklik göstermesi, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonun birlikte hareket etmesine neden olmuştur. Diğer önemli faktörler ise mali açık ve tüketici fiyat endeksi seviyesidir.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Enflasyon Yakınsaması
• Klüp Yakınsaması
• Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler
• Panel Logit Modeli

Inflation Convergence Still Alive on Emerging Markets: What are the Determinants of Convergence?

Abstract

In addition to measuring the cost of living, inflation is an important macroeconomic variable affecting financial markets and all areas of the economy. Post-COVID-19, supply shocks and supply chain disruptions affected pricing behavior and created an inflationary environment worldwide, especially in emerging countries. At the same time, debate on inflation convergence is ongoing in the literature. This study analyzes the inflation convergence in emerging economies in the post-2008 global financial crisis period using the Phillips-Sul Club Convergence approach. Annual inflation of the consumer price index at monthly frequency is considered. The findings show that there is no convergence for the entire panel. However, there are two convergence clubs, one with a higher inflation rate. The findings also reveal that most countries have experienced an inflation convergence process. So, this study extends the literature by analyzing inflation convergence determinants. It can be understood from this effort the most preeminent factor is the exchange rate regime employed by the countries. The flexibility of exchange rates in a controlled interval caused co-movements of inflation in emerging countries. The other significant factors are fiscal deficit and consumer price index level.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Inflation Convergence
• Club Convergence
• Emerging Markets
• Panel Logit Models

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