Enflasyon Yakınsaması Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hala Geçerli mi: Yakınsamanın Belirleyicileri Neler?

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 41 Sayı: 1, 112 - 132, 06.03.2026

Melisa Girgin , Uğur Akkoç

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1538317

https://izlik.org/JA62MB44ZA

Öz

Enflasyon, hayat pahalılığını ölçmenin yanı sıra, finansal piyasaları ve ekonominin tüm alanlarını etkileyen önemli bir makroekonomik değişkendir. COVID-19 sonrası arz şokları ve tedarik zinciri aksaklıkları fiyatlama davranışlarını etkilemiş ve özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde olmak üzere dünya genelinde enflasyonist bir ortam yaratmıştır. Aynı zamanda literatürde enflasyon yakınsamasına ilişkin tartışmalar da devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2008 küresel finansal krizi sonrası dönemde gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki enflasyon yakınsaması Phillips-Sul Club Yakınsama yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Aylık frekanstaki tüketici fiyat endeksinin yıllık enflasyonu dikkate alınmıştır. Bulgular, tüm panel için yakınsama olmadığını göstermektedir. Ancak, biri daha yüksek enflasyon oranına sahip olmak üzere iki yakınsama kulübü bulunmaktadır. Bulgular ayrıca çoğu ülkenin bir enflasyon yakınsama süreci yaşadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla, bu çalışma enflasyon yakınsamasının belirleyicilerini analiz ederek literatürü genişletmektedir. Bu çalışmadan da anlaşılacağı üzere, en önde gelen faktör ülkelerin uyguladığı döviz kuru rejimidir. Döviz kurlarının kontrollü bir aralıkta esneklik göstermesi, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonun birlikte hareket etmesine neden olmuştur. Diğer önemli faktörler ise mali açık ve tüketici fiyat endeksi seviyesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon , Enflasyon Yakınsaması , Klüp Yakınsaması , Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler , Panel Logit Modeli

Inflation Convergence Still Alive on Emerging Markets: What are the Determinants of Convergence?

https://izlik.org/JA62MB44ZA

Öz

In addition to measuring the cost of living, inflation is an important macroeconomic variable affecting financial markets and all areas of the economy. Post-COVID-19, supply shocks and supply chain disruptions affected pricing behavior and created an inflationary environment worldwide, especially in emerging countries. At the same time, debate on inflation convergence is ongoing in the literature. This study analyzes the inflation convergence in emerging economies in the post-2008 global financial crisis period using the Phillips-Sul Club Convergence approach. Annual inflation of the consumer price index at monthly frequency is considered. The findings show that there is no convergence for the entire panel. However, there are two convergence clubs, one with a higher inflation rate. The findings also reveal that most countries have experienced an inflation convergence process. So, this study extends the literature by analyzing inflation convergence determinants. It can be understood from this effort the most preeminent factor is the exchange rate regime employed by the countries. The flexibility of exchange rates in a controlled interval caused co-movements of inflation in emerging countries. The other significant factors are fiscal deficit and consumer price index level.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation , Inflation Convergence , Club Convergence , Emerging Markets , Panel Logit Models

Kaynakça

• Anoruo, E., & Murthy, V. N. (2014). Testing nonlinear inflation convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(1), 1-7.
• Apergis, N., Panopoulou, E., & Tsoumas, C. (2010). Old wine in a new bottle: Growth convergence dynamics in the EU. Atlantic Economic Journal, 38, 169-181.
• Ball, L. (2006). Has Globalization Changed Inflation?. NBER Working Paper, (w12687).
• Barrios, C., Flores, E., & Martínez, M. Á. (2019). Convergence clubs in Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 26(1), 16-20.
• Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
• Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1990). Economic growth and convergence across the United States. NBER Working Paper, (w3419).
• Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223-251.
• Bartkowska, M., & Riedl, A. (2012). Regional convergence clubs in Europe: Identification and conditioning factors. Economic Modelling, 29(1), 22-31.
• Baumol, W. J. (1986). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: what the long-run data. The American Economic Review, 76(5), 1072-1085
• Beck, G.W., Hubrich, K. ve Marcelliono, M. (2006). Regional inflation dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No 681.
• Belke, M., & Al, İbrahim. (2019). Türkiye’de bölgesel enflasyon yakınsaması: panel birim kök testlerinden kanıtlar. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 5(2), 301-323.
• Bhattacharya, M., Inekwe, J. N., & Sadorsky, P. (2020). Consumption-based and territory-based carbon emissions intensity: determinants and forecasting using club convergence across countries. Energy Economics, 86, 104632.
• Borsi, M. T., & Metiu, N. (2015). The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union. Empirical Economics, 48, 657-681.
• Brito, P., & Correia, I. (2000). Inflation differential and real convergence in Portugal. Banco de Portugal, Economic Bulletin, 6(2).
• Brož, V., & Kočenda, E. (2018). Dynamics and factors of inflation convergence in the European Union. Journal of International Money and Finance, 86, 93-111.
• Busetti, F., Fabiani, S., & Harvey, A. (2006). Convergence of prices and rates of inflation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68, 863-877.
• Cavallaro, E., & Villani, I. (2021). Club convergence in EU Countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 36(1), 125-161.
• Ciccarelli, M., & Mojon, B. (2010). Global inflation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(3), 524-535.
• Cottarelli, C. (1998). The nonmonetary determinants of inflation: A panel data study. IMF Working Papers, 1998(023).
• Cuestas, J. C., Gil‐Alana, L. A., & Taylor, K. (2016). Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non‐linearities and long memory. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 63(5), 519-538.
• Çakır, M., & Gunduz, L. (2022). Price level convergence in Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 29(20), 1921-1926.
• De Long, J. B. (1988). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: comment. The American Economic Review, 78(5), 1138-1154.
• Domaç, I., & Yücel, E. M. (2005). What triggers inflation in emerging market economies?. Review of world economics, 141, 141-164.
• Dowrick, S., & Nguyen, D. T. (1989). OECD comparative economic growth 1950-85: catch-up and convergence. The american economic Review, 1010-1030.
• Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
• Fan, X., Wang, X., Xu, Z., & Skare, M. (2023). Food price inflation convergence: an international study from 2000–2020. British food journal, 125(3), 794-809.
• Feldkircher, M., & Siklos, P. L. (2019). Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations. International Review of Economics & Finance, 64, 217-241.
• Fischer, S., Sahay, R., & Végh, C. A. (1996). Economies in transition: The beginnings of growth. The American Economic Review, 86(2), 229-233.
• Fritsche, U., & Kuzin, V. (2008). Convergence in Europe in a nonlinear factor model. Ecomod.net
• Furuoka, F., Pui, K. L., Chomar, M. T., & Nikitina, L. (2021). Is the Phillips curve disappearing? Evidence from a new test procedure. Applied Economics Letters, 28(6), 493-500.
• Gharehgozli, O., & Lee, S. (2022). Money supply and inflation after COVID-19. Economies, 10(5), 101.
• Gao, L., Abbas, S. K., & Lan, H. (2023). Globalization and inflation dynamics: evidence from emerging economies. Applied Economics, 1-18.
• Gluschenko, K. (2010). Methodologies of analyzing inter-regional income inequality and their applications to Russia. William Davidson Institute Working Paper. No:984
• Güriş, S., Ebru Ç., and Hoşeng B., (2020). Enflasyon yakınsamasının Fourier birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi 9. 85-92.
• Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J. E. (2019). The KOF globalisation index–revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14, 543-574.
• Hałka, A., & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, A. (2019). Price convergence in the European Union–What has changed?. Economic Modelling, 79, 226-241.
• Hepsag, A. (2017). Inflation convergence among the next eleven economies: Evidence from asymmetric nonlinear unit root test. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 24(4).
• Herrerias, M. J. (2013). The environmental convergence hypothesis: carbon dioxide emissions according to the source of energy. Energy policy, 61, 1140-1150.
• Holmes, M. J. (2002). Panel data evidence on inflation convergence in the European Union. Applied Economics Letters, 9(3), 155-158.
• Hussain, S., & Malik, S. (2011). Inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 262-276.
• Ihrig, J., Kamin, S. B., Lindner, D., & Marquez, J. (2010). Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. International Finance, 13(3), 343-375.
• Ilzetzki, E., Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2019). Exchange arrangements entering the twenty-first century: Which anchor will hold?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(2), 599-646.
• Islam, N. (2003). What have we learnt from the convergence debate?. Journal of economic surveys, 17(3), 309-362.
• Ivanovski, K., & Churchill, S. A. (2020). Convergence and determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia: A regional analysis. Energy Economics, 92, 104971.
• Kang, S. H., Hernandez, J. A., & Yoon, S. M. (2019). Who leads the inflation cycle in Europe? Inflation cycle and spillover influence among Eurozone and non-Eurozone economies. International Economics, 160, 56-71.
• Karagöl, E. T., Görüş, Ş., & Özgür, Ö. (2019). Club Convergence in Turkey: evidence from provincial income data. Uluslararası Yönetim, Ekonomi ve Politika Kongresi, İstanbul/Türkiye.
• Karanasos, M., Koutroumpis, P., Karavias, Y., Kartsaklas, A., & Arakelian, V. (2016). Inflation convergence in the EMU. Journal of Empirical Finance, 39, 241-253.
• King, R. G., & Rebelo, S. (1989). Transitional dynamics and economic growth in the neoclassical model. NBER Working Papers. No:3185
• Kocenda, E., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Inflation convergence within the European Union: A panel data analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(3), 189-198.
• Kraus, S., Clauss, T., Breier, M., Gast, J., Zardini, A. and Tiberius, V. (2020). The economics of COVID-19: initial empirical evidence on how family firms in five European countries cope with the corona crisis, International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior and Research, 26(5), 1067-1092.
• Kurozumi, E., Yamazaki, D., & Hadri, K. (2012). Covariate unit root test for cross-sectionally dependent panel data. Queen's Management School Working Paper Series. No: 13-01
• Liu, T. Y., & Lee, C. C. (2021). Global convergence of inflation rates. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58, 101501.
• Lopez, C., & Papell, D. H. (2012). Convergence of euro area inflation rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(6), 1440-1458.
• Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437.
• Mazumder, S. (2017). The impact of globalızatıon on inflatıon in Developıng Countrıes. Journal of Economic Development, 42(3).
• Mentz, M., & Sebastian, S. P. (2003). Inflation convergence after the introduction of the Euro. SSRN Working Paper. No. 460820.
• Murphy, A., The Death of the Phillips Curve? (2018). FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 1801.
• Nagayasu, J. (2010). Regional inflation (price) behaviors: heterogeneity and convergence. MPRA Working Paper, No: 25430
• Nyong, M. O., & Omobitan, O. A. (2013). Nonlinear income convergence and structural breaks: further empirical evidence. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(4), 81-88.
• Nzimande, N. (2021). Income convergence in Southern Africa: A Nonlinear Time-Varying Coefficients Framework. Economic Research Southern Africa. No. 858
• Özdurak, C., & Uzunoğlu, S. (2023). The divergence of bank lending rates from policy rates in Turkey: A monetary experiment or an unconventional approach in dealing with high inflation. SSRN Working Paper. No:4659096.
• Peiró-Palomino, J., Prieto-Bustos, W. O., & Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2023). Regional income convergence in Colombia: population, space, and long-run dynamics. The Annals of Regional Science, 70(2), 559-601.
• Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283-299.
• Phillips, P. C., & Sul, D. (2007). Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75(6), 1771-1855.
• Saba, C. S., & Ngepah, N. (2022). Convergence in renewable energy sources and the dynamics of their determinants: An insight from a club clustering algorithm. Energy Reports, 8, 3483-3506.
• Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (1996a). Regional cohesion: evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1325-1352.
• Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (1996b). The classical approach to convergence analysis. The Economic Journal, 106(437), 1019-1036.
• Schnurbus, J., Haupt, H., & Meier, V. (2017). Economic transition and growth: a replication. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32(5), 1039-1042.
• Siklos, P. L., & Wohar, M. E. (1997). Convergence in interest rates and inflation rates across countries and over time. Review of International Economics, 5(1), 129-141.
• Simionescu, M. (2015). The impact of economic crisis on inflation convergence in the European Union. A panel data approach. CEA Journal of Economics, 10(1).
• Spiru, A. M. (2008). Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern European economies. Romanian Economic and Business Review, 3(4), 14-34.
• Tsafa-Karakatsanidou, M., & Fountas, S. (2018). Testing for inflation convergence among European Union Countries: A panel approach. Applied Economics Quarterly, 64(1), 17-37.
• Valera, M. L. G., & Valera, H. G. (2014). Testing the inflation convergence among the original ASEAN Members. Journal of Global Business and Trade, 10(2), 71-78.
• Yilmazkuday, H. (2013). Inflation targeting, flexible exchange rates and inflation convergence. Applied Economics, 45(5), 593-603.
• Yilmazkuday, H. (2023). Drivers of inflation convergence across countries: the role of standard gravity variables. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(6), 1664-1686.