ASEAN-5 Ülkelerinde İktisadi Büyüme, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Vergi Yükü Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Panel Bootstrap Analizi

Year 2026, Volume: 41 Issue: 1, 77 - 98, 06.03.2026

Şerif Canbay

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1632974

https://izlik.org/JA66WY62YZ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, ASEAN-5 kurucu ülkeleri olan Endonezya, Malezya, Filipinler, Singapur ve Tayland için 2008-2022 dönemi boyunca iktisadi büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve vergi yükü arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemeyi amaçlamakta olup, bu kapsamda Kónya tarafından geliştirilen panel bootstrap nedensellik testi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönü ve etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada, bu ilişkileri incelemek amacıyla 3 ayrı model kurulmuştur. Çalışmanın Model 1’e ait bulgularına göre, Malezya’da doğrudan yabancı yatırımların iktisadi büyümeyi desteklediği, ancak vergi yükünün iktisadi büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Endonezya, Filipinler, Singapur ve Tayland’da ise her iki değişkenin iktisadi büyüme üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Model 2 sonuçları, Malezya, Filipinler, Singapur ve Tayland’da iktisadi büyüme ve vergi yükünün doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkilediğini göstermiştir. Malezya ve Tayland’da hem iktisadi büyüme hem de vergi yükü doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde negatif bir etki yaratırken, Filipinler ve Singapur’da iktisadi büyüme doğrudan yabancı yatırımları pozitif, vergi yükü ise negatif yönde etkilemiştir. Endonezya’da ise bu değişkenlerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Model 3 sonuçları ise Malezya ve Tayland’da iktisadi büyümenin vergi yükünü azalttığı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının ise vergi yükünü artırdığı belirlenmiştir. Endonezya, Filipinler ve Singapur’da ise iktisadi büyüme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının vergi yükü üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır.

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar , İktisadi Büyüme , Vergi Yükü , ASEAN-5

Causal Relationships Between Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Tax Burden in ASEAN-5 Countries: A Panel Bootstrap Analysis

https://izlik.org/JA66WY62YZ

Abstract

This study aims to examine the causal relationship among economic growth, foreign direct investment, and tax burden in the founding ASEAN-5 countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—over the period 2008-2022. In this context, the direction and magnitude of these relationships were analyzed using the panel bootstrap causality test developed by Kónya (2006). Three different models were constructed to investigate these linkages. According to the findings of Model 1, foreign direct investment supports economic growth in Malaysia, whereas the tax burden exerts a negative effect on economic growth. In Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, neither of these variables has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. The results of Model 2 indicate that economic growth and the tax burden influence foreign direct investment in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. In Malaysia and Thailand, both economic growth and tax burden exert a negative impact on foreign direct investment, while in the Philippines and Singapore, economic growth positively affects foreign direct investment, whereas tax burden has a negative effect. In Indonesia, neither of these variables significantly affects foreign direct investment. The findings of Model 3 suggest that economic growth reduces the tax burden in Malaysia and Thailand, whereas foreign direct investment contributes to an increased tax burden. In Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore, neither economic growth nor foreign direct investment has a statistically significant impact on the tax burden.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment , Economic Growth , Tax Burden , ASEAN-5

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