Makroekonomik Faktörlerin NEET’e Etkisi: Seçilmiş Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler için Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Ekonomik ve sosyal politikalara, toplumsal ve bireysel nedenlere dayalı karmaşık bir yapının etkileşimi sonucunda gençler, eğitimden ve işgücü piyasasından uzaklaşıp ne eğitimde ne istihdamda (NEET) statüsünde yer almaya başlayarak önemli bir sorun haline gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada, makroekonomik göstergelerin NEET oranına etkisinin 10 gelişmekte olan ülke için 2001-2024 yılları kapsamında panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distirbuted Lag-otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeli model) ile analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve sabit sermaye oluşumundaki artış NEET oranını azaltıcı etki yaratırken, eğitim harcamalarındaki artışın NEET oranını artırıcı etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Enflasyon ve işgücü verimliliği değişkenlerinin uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı görülmüştür. İktisadi büyüme ve yatırımlardaki artışın gelişmekte olan ülkelerde istihdam olanaklarını artırmaları ve işgücü piyasası koşullarını iyileştirmeleri ile NEET oranını azalttığını söylemek mümkündür. Eğitim harcamalarının NEET oranını azaltması için gençleri ekonomik alanda karşılığı olan yetkinliklerle donatacak nitelikli eğitim sistemi yaratacak şekilde değerlendirilmesi gerekmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, gençlerin NEET olma eğiliminin azaltılmasının ülkelerin öncelikle olumlu ekonomik yapısı ile ilişkili olduğu ve buna dayalı olarak etkin sosyal politikaların ve kurumsal yapılanmaların geliştirebileceği dikkate alınmalıdır.

Keywords

• NEET
• Genç işsizliği
• İstihdam
• Panel veri analizi

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on NEET: Panel Data Analysis for Selected Developing Countries

Abstract

The interaction of a complex structure based on economic and social policies, as well as societal and individual factors, is causing young people to become disengaged from education and the labor market, leading them to fall into the NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) category, which has become a significant problem. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic indicators on the NEET rate for 10 developing countries using annual data covering the period 2001-2024 with a panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model. According to the findings, while increases in gross domestic product and fixed capital formation in the long run have a reducing effect on the NEET rate, increases in education spending have been found to have an increasing effect on the NEET rate. Inflation and labor productivity variables were found to be statistically insignificant in the long run. It is possible to say that economic growth and increased investment in developing countries have reduced the NEET rate by increasing employment opportunities and improving labor market conditions. In order for education spending to reduce the NEET rate, it is necessary to evaluate the creation of a quality education system that will equip young people with skills that are economically relevant. In developing countries, it should be considered that reducing the tendency of young people to become NEETs is primarily related to the positive economic structure of countries, and, based on this, effective social policies and institutional structures can be developed.

Keywords

• NEET
• Youth unemployment
• Employment
• Panel data analysis

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