The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Vulnerability And Economic Growth: The Case Of China

Abstract

Economic vulnerability is handled from micro- and macroeconomic perspectives. While the microeconomic perspective is concerned with the impact of shocks on the well-being of individual households, the macroeconomic perspective focuses on the impact of these shocks on economic growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic vulnerability and economic growth. In this paper, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between macroeconomic vulnerability and economic growth for a sample of China by using annual data covering the period 1987-2018. Three important results were obtained from the analyzes. First, China’s macroeconomic vulnerability has increased since 2011; Second, macroeconomic vulnerability and economic growth have a long run relationship; Third, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and macroeconomic vulnerability.

Keywords

• Macroeconomic Vulnerability
• Economic Growth
• Causality Tests

Makroekonomik Kırılganlık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi: Çin Örneği

Abstract

Ekonomik kırılganlık mikro ve makroekonomik açıdan ele alınmaktadır. Mikroekonomik perspektif şokların bireysel hane halklarının refahı üzerindeki etkisiyle ilgilenirken, makroekonomik perspektif ise bu şokların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisine odaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı makroekonomik kırılganlık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu yazıda 1987-2018 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak Çin örneğinde makroekonomik kırılganlık ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koymak için Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Analizlerden üç önemli sonuç elde edilmiştir. Birincisi, Çin’in makroekonomik kırılganlığı 2011'den beri artmaktadır; İkincisi, makroekonomik kırılganlık ile büyüme arasında uzun dönem ilişki mevcuttur; Üçüncüsü, ekonomik büyüme ile makroekonomik kırılganlık arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Keywords

• makroekonomik kırılganlık
• ekonomik büyüme
• nedensellik analizi
• Çin

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