The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Vulnerability And Economic Growth: The Case Of China

Yıl 2020, , 697 - 712, 31.12.2020

Mustafa Baylan

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202035403

Cited By: 1

Öz

Economic vulnerability is handled from micro- and macroeconomic perspectives. While the microeconomic perspective is concerned with the impact of shocks on the well-being of individual households, the macroeconomic perspective focuses on the impact of these shocks on economic growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic vulnerability and economic growth. In this paper, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between macroeconomic vulnerability and economic growth for a sample of China by using annual data covering the period 1987-2018. Three important results were obtained from the analyzes. First, China’s macroeconomic vulnerability has increased since 2011; Second, macroeconomic vulnerability and economic growth have a long run relationship; Third, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and macroeconomic vulnerability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Macroeconomic Vulnerability, Economic Growth, Causality Tests

Makroekonomik Kırılganlık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi: Çin Örneği

Öz

Ekonomik kırılganlık mikro ve makroekonomik açıdan ele alınmaktadır. Mikroekonomik perspektif şokların bireysel hane halklarının refahı üzerindeki etkisiyle ilgilenirken, makroekonomik perspektif ise bu şokların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisine odaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı makroekonomik kırılganlık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu yazıda 1987-2018 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak Çin örneğinde makroekonomik kırılganlık ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koymak için Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Analizlerden üç önemli sonuç elde edilmiştir. Birincisi, Çin’in makroekonomik kırılganlığı 2011'den beri artmaktadır; İkincisi, makroekonomik kırılganlık ile büyüme arasında uzun dönem ilişki mevcuttur; Üçüncüsü, ekonomik büyüme ile makroekonomik kırılganlık arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

makroekonomik kırılganlık, ekonomik büyüme, nedensellik analizi, Çin

Kaynakça

• Aikman, D., Kiley, M.T., Lee, S.J. Michael G. Palumbo and Missaka N. Warusawitharana, (2015). “Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions Of Research, Statistics And Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board”, Washington,D.C.,https://Www.Federalreserve.Gov/Econresdata/Feds/2015/Files/2015059pap.Pdf, (16.12.2019).
• Aldasoro, I.,Borio, C. Ve Drehmann, M. (2018). “Early Warning Indicators Of Banking Crises: Expanding The Family”, Bis Quarterly Review , https://Www.Bis.Org/Publ/Qtrpdf/R_Qt1803e.Pdf, (12.12.2019).
• Ansar,A.,Flyvbjerg, B., Budzier, A., Ve Lunn, D. (2016). “Does Infrastructure Investment Lead To Economic Growth Or Economic Fragility? Evidence From China” Oxford Review Of EconomicPolicy, 32(3), Pp. 360–390.
• Armstrong, H. W. Ve Read, R. (2002). “The Phantom Of Liberty? Economic Growth And The Vulnerability Of Small States”. Journal Of International Development, 14(4), Pp. 435-458.
• Atkins, J. Mazzi, S.,Easter C., (2000), ‘ A Commonwealth Vulnerability Index For Developing Countries: The Position Of Small States’ Economic Paper No. 40, Commonwealth Secretariat, London.
• Bayraktar, Y. Ve Elüstü, S. (2016). “Makroekonomik Kırılganlığın Ölçülmesi: Yükselen Piyasalar Ve Türkiye İçin Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz” Hak-İş Uluslararası Emek Ve Toplum Dergisi, 5(11), Ss. 9-29.
• Briguglio, L. Cordina, G. Farrugia, N. Ve Vella, S. (2008). “Economic Vulnerability And Resilience Concepts and Measurements”, Research Paper No. 2008/55, www.Wider.Unu.Edu/Sites/Default/Files/Rp2008-55.Pdf, (15.12.2019 ).
• Briguglio, L.VeGalea, W., (2003). “Updating And Augmenting The Economic Vulnerability Index”, Occasional Paper By The Small States Institute, https://Www.Researchgate.Net/Publication/239532719_Updating_The_Economic_Vulnerability_İndex, (13.12.2019).
• Borysko, S. (2017). “Early Warning Indicators Of The Crisis. Financial Vulnerabilities In Caucus And Central Asia”, Berlin School Of Economics And Law Master Of International Economics Ss2017, https://Www.Hwr-Berlin.De/Fileadmin/Portal/Dokumente/Prof-Seiten/Metzger/Thesis_2017-Borysko_Sofia.Pdf, (14.12.2019).
• Dalhaus, T. Ve Lam, A. (2018). “Assessing Vulnerabilities İn Emerging-Market Economies”, Bank Of Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2018-13, https://Www.Bankofcanada.Ca/Wp-Content/Uploads/2018/10/Sdp2018-13.Pdf, (16.12.2019).
• Elüstü, S. (2016). “Yükselen Piyasalarda Makroekonomik Kırılganlık Ve Türkiye Örneği, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı Teknoloji Ve Sanayi İktisadı, İstanbul.
• Essers, D. (2015), “ Essays on Develophing Country Vulnerabilitiy to External Shocks in Light of the Great Ressesion”, Universty of Antwerpen, 274s.
• Fed (Federal ReserveSystem) (2014). “MonetaryPolicy Report”, February 11, 2014 Washington, D.C.,July 15, 2014, https://Www.Federalreserve.Gov/Monetarypolicy/Mpr_Default.Htm, (20.12.2019).
• Feenstra, R.C. Ve Wei, S.J. (2010). China's Growing Role In World Trade, Ed. : Robert C. Feenstra And Shang-Jin Wei, University Of Chicago Press, Chicago, 603s.
• Fowowe, B. ve Folarin, E.O. (2019). The Effects of Fragility and Financial Inequalities on Inclusive Growth in African Countries. Review of Development Economics. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/rode.12594
• Gounder, R. ve Saha, S. (2007). “Economic Volatility, Economic Vulnerability And Foreign Aid: Empirical Results For The South Pacific Island Nations”, Department Of AppliedAnd International Economics DiscussionPaper No. 07.02 March 2007 http://Econfin.Massey.Ac.Nz/School/Publications/Discuss/Dp07-02.Pdf, (30.12.2019).
• Guillaumont, P. (2011). “Macro Vulnerability In LowIncome Countries And Aid Responses”, Hal Id: Halshs-00570499.
• Gujurati, D.N. (2001). Temel Ekonometri, Çev. : Gülay G. Şenesen Ve Ümit Şenesen, Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul, 849s.
• Hermansen, M. Ve Rohn, O.,(2015). “Economic Resilience: The Usefulness Of Early Warning Indicators In OECD Countries”, Economics Department Working Papers No. 1250 DOI: 10.1787/5jrxhgfqx3mv-En
• IMF, (2003), “External Debt Statistics : Guide For Compilers And Users” https://Www.İmf.Org/External/Pubs/Ft/Eds/Eng/Guide/File4.Pdf, (15.12.2019).
• IMF, (2008). “Vulnerability Indicators”, https://www.İmf.Org/External/Np/Exr/Facts/Vul.Htm (18.12.2019).
• IMF, (2019). Https://Www.İmf.Org/External/İndex.Htm, (16.12.2019).
• Jimborean, R. (2018). “What Drives Private Non-Financial Sector Borrowing In Emerging Market Economies?”, Economics And Statistics Institut National De La Statistique Et Des Études Économiques, 503-504, Pp. 143-161. Https://Doi.Org/10.24187/Ecostat.2018.503d.1962 , (13.12.2019).
• Kaplan, F. Ve Yapraklı, S. (2014). “Ekonomik Kırılganlık Endeksi Göstergelerinin Döviz Kuru Üzerindeki Etkileri:Kırılgan 12 Ülke Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi” , Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(3), Ss. 111-121.
• Karakurt, B. H. Şentürk Ve Ela M., (2015). “Makroekonomik Kırılganlık: Türkiye Ve Şangay Beşlisi Karşılaştırması”, Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(1), Ss. 283-307.
• Kidochukwu, O. (2015). “IMF Recommended Debt Sustainability Threshold for Nigeria. Is It Growth Augmenting? An Optimization Algorithm Approach”, OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 08, No. 11, pp. 81-90 SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2709119 (3.7.2020).
• Lepers, E. Ve Serranob, A.S., (2018). “ Decomposing Financial (In) Stability In Emerging Economies”, Elsevier, 51, January 2020, 101068
• Mansor, S.A. , Puah, C.H., Liew, V.K. Ve Wong, S.S., (2015). “An Early Warning Indicator Of Economic Vulnerability Constructing For Malaysian Economy”, Economics And Management Of National Economy, 3-4(1), Pp. 37-41.
• Melville J. Ve Brathwaıte, J. (2006). “Revised Economic Vulnerability Index 2002”, https://Www.Centralbank.Org.Bb/News/Article/6630/Revised-Economic-Vulnerability-İndex-2002, (12.12.2019).
• Minsky, H. P. (1976). A Theory Of Systemic Fragility, https://Digitalcommons.Bard.Edu/Hm_Archive/231/, (30.12.2019).
• Minsky, H. P. (1995). “Sources Of Financial Fragility: Financial Factors İn TheEconomics Of Capitalism”, Https://Digitalcommons.Bard.Edu/Cgi/Viewcontent.Cgi?Article=1068&Context=Hm_
• Mulder, C. Ve Bussière, M., (1999). “Political Instability And Economic Vulnerability”, IMF Working Paper , 1999(46), Pp. 1-36.
• Naude, W.,Paulino, A.U. ve Mcgillivray, M. (2009). “Vulnerability İn Developing Countries: An Introduction, Research Brief”, Https://Collections.Unu.Edu/Eserv/Unu:3076/Rb02_08.Pdf, (14.12.2019).
• NBSC, (NationalBureau Of Statistics Of China) (2019), Http://Www.Stats.Gov.Cn/Tjsj/Ndsj/2018/İndexeh.Htm
• Neely, C. J., (2017). “Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves, Policy Choices And The U.S. Economy”, WorkingPaper 2017-001a, https://Papers.Ssrn.Com/Sol3/Papers.Cfm?Abstract_İd=2952262, (12.12.2019).
• Norrıs E. D. ve Gündüz, B. Y., (2014). “Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises In Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index”, World Development, 59, Pp. 360–378.
• OECD, (2008). “Handbook On Constructing Composite Indicators: MethodologyAnd User Guide” , Http://Www.Oecd.Org/Sdd/42495745.Pdf, (15.12.2019).
• Örnek, İ. (2008). “Yabanci Sermaye Akımlarının Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Ankara Üniversitesi Sbf Dergisi, 63 (02), Ss. 199-217.
• Özyıldız, H. (2019). “Kırılganlık Göstergeleri” Http://Www.Hakanozyildiz.Com/2014/02/Krlganlk-Gostergeleri.Html (11.12.2019).
• Petek, A. ve Çelik, A. (2017). “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi (1990-2015)”, Finans Politik İle Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54( 626), Ss. 69-87.
• Ren, C., Zhaı, G., Zhou, S., Chen, W., veLi, S. (2018). “A Comprehensive Assessment And Spatial Analysis Of Vulnerability Of China’s Provincial Economies”, Sustainability 2018, 10, 1261; DOI:10.3390/Su10041261
• Seth, A. ve Ragab, A. (2012). "Macroeconomic Vulnerability In Developing Countries: Approaches And Issues," Working Papers 94, International Policy Centre For Inclusive Growth, https://Ipcig.Org/Pub/Ipcworkingpaper94.Pdf, (13.12.2019).
• Sun, L., (2015). “China’s Debt: Structure, Determinants And Sustainability”, Https://Mpra.Ub.Uni-Muenchen.De/68548/1/Mpra_Paper_68548.Pdf, (12.12.2019).
• Supriyadi, A. (2014). “External Vulnerability Indicators: The Case Of Indonesia”, Https://Www.Bis.Org/İfc/Events/7ifcconf_Supriyadi.Pdf, (13.12.2019).
• Tarı, R. ve Bozkurt, H. (2006). “Türkiye’de İstikrarsız Büyümenin Var Modelleri İle Analizi (1991.1-2004.3)”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi , Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sayı :4 Ss. 12-28.
• Tokucu, E. (2012). “Hyman Minsky’nin Finansal İstikrarsızlık Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Finansal Krizler ve Çözüm Önerileri”, Sbf Dergisi, 67(2), Ss. 189-212.
• UNCTAD, (1997). “The Vulnerability Of Small Island Developing States İn The Context Of Globalisation: Common Issues And Remedies”, Report Prepared For The Export Group On Vulnerability Index. Un Desa, Https://Unctad.Org/En/Pages/Home.Aspx, (14.12.2019).
• Wang, Y. (2006). China As A World Factory “Cheap Labor And China’s Export Capacity”, Taylor And Francis, Londra, Ed. Kevin H. Zhang, 14s.
• Wells, J. (1997), “Composite Vulnerability Index: A Revised Report”, Report For The Commonwealth Secretariat Consultative Group On Small States, Faculty Of Economics And Politics, University Of Cambridge, Cambridge, August 1997
• World Bank, (2019). Https://Databank.Worldbank.Org/Source/World-Development-İndicators, (16.12.2019).
• Yuanchun, L.,(2015). Managing Inflation In China Current Trends And New Strategies, Enrich Professional Publishing, Hong Kong, 234s..