A Comprehensive Overview on Political Budget Cycles in Turkey

Abstract

In this study, it has been explored the existence of political budget cycles in the term of the Justice and Development Party for the period 2007-2018. There are a few features that make this study different from other similar studies. Firstly, all estimations are obtained with province-based data, and the impact of general elections is separated by more comprehensive public expenditure sub-items. Secondly, political budget cycles are analyzed in metropolitan cities. Finally, all the predictions obtained are verified by robustness tests. According to results, there exists a political budget cycle in elections, but size of the election coefficient is very small. Moreover, public spending for metropolitan cities during election periods has shown to be more pronounced than other provinces and all predictions are robust.

Keywords

• Public Policy
• Business Cycles
• Panel Econometrics

Türkiye’de Politik Bütçe Döngüleri Üzerine Kapsamlı Bir Bakış

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 2007-2018 yılları arasında Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi döneminde politik bütçe dalgalanmalarının geçerliliği araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmayı diğer çalışmalardan farklı kılan birkaç özellik bulunmaktadır. Öncelikle il bazlı bir veri ile tahminler elde edilmiş ve genel seçimlerin etkisi kamu harcama alt kalemlerine göre ayrıştırılmıştır. İkinci olarak, büyükşehirler için politik bütçe dalgalanmalarının analizi yapılmıştır. Son olarak elde edilen tüm tahminlerin güçlü olduğu gösterilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre seçim dönemlerinde kamu harcamaları üzerinde politik bütçe dalgalanmalarının varlığının açık ancak boyutunun çok küçük olduğu, büyükşehirler için yapılan kamu harcamalarının diğer illere göre daha belirgin olduğu ve elde edilen tüm tahmin sonuçlarının sağlamlık testleri ile değişmediği gösterilmiştir.

Keywords

• Maliye Politikası
• Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları
• Panel Ekonometri

References

1. A Akçoroğlu A. (2004). “Siyasal Ekonomi Açısından Büyüme, Enflasyon ve Bütçe Açıkları: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 59(01).
2. Alesina, A., ve Paradisi, M. (2017). “Political budget cycles: Evidence from Italian cities”. Economics & Politics, 29 (2), 157-177.
3. Altun, T. (2014). “Türkiye’de Fırsatçı ve Partizan Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2010”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 36(2), 47-69.
4. Analitik Bütçe Sınıflandırması Rehberi (ABSR), http://www.sbb.gov.tr/wpcontent/uploads/2019/04/Analitik-Ekorehber_2013-2015.pdf (28.04.2020)
5. Asutay, M. (2005). “Political monetary cycles: the political manipulation of monetary policy instruments and outcomes in Turkey”. http://dro.dur.ac.uk/946/1/946.pdf?DDD35+dgi4lh (28.04.2020).
6. Balcı, D., ve Çavuşoğlu, T. (2018). “Seçimlerin Kamu Harcaması Kompozisyonu Üzerine Etkilerinin Ampirik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği”. Amme Idaresi Dergisi, 51(2).
7. Baldi, G., ve Forster, S. (2019). “Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Swiss Cantons”, Working Paper
8. Barberia, L. G., ve Avelino, G. (2011). “Do political budget cycles differ in Latin American democracies?”. Economía, 11(2), 101-134.

9. Ben-Gal, I. (2005). Outlier detection. In Data mining and knowledge discovery handbook (pp. 131-146). Springer, Boston, MA.
10. Block, S. A. (2002). “Political Business Cycles, Democratization, and Economic Reform: The Case of Africa”. Journal of Development Economics, 67(1), 205-228.
11. Brender, A. (2003): “The Effect of Fiscal Performance on Local Government Elections Results in Israel: 1989-1998,” Journal of Public Economics, 87(9-10), 2187-2205.
12. Brender, A. ve Drazen, A. (2009). Do Leaders Affect Government Spending Priorities? (No. w15368). National Bureau of Economic Research.
13. Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2005). “Political Budget Cycles in New Versus Established Democracies”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271-1295.
14. Buchanan, J. M., ve Wagner, R. E. (1977). Democracy in deficit: The political legacy of Lord Keynes. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.597.4795 (28.04.2020)
15. Bulutay, T. (1970). “Türk Toplumsal Hayatında İktisadi ve Siyasal Gelişmeler”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 25(03).
16. Bulutay, T. ve Yıldırım, N. (1969). “Türk Seçmenlerinin Oy Verme Eğilimlerinde İktisadi Sebeplerin Önemi Üzerinde Bir Deneme”. Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22, 7-39.
17. Carkoglu, A. (1995). “The Interdependence of Politics and Economics in Turkey: Some Findings at The Aggregate Level of Analysis”. Bogazici Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 9(2), 85-108.
18. Çakmak, C. (1985). “Türkiye’de 1950'li Yıllardaki Genel Seçimler Üzerine Bir Deneme” East Technical University Studies in Development, 12, 245-283.
19. Çakmak, C. (1990). “1987 Genel Seçimleri ve 1989 Yerel Seçimleri: Bir Karşılaştırma”. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 17: 1-24.
20. De Haan, J. ve Klomp, J. (2013). “Conditional Political Budget Cycles: A Review of Recent Evidence”. Public Choice, 157(3-4), 387-410.
21. Drazen, A. (2000). “The Political Business Cycle After 25 Years”. NBER macroeconomics annual, 15, 75-117.
22. Drazen, A. ve M. Eslava (2005): “Electoral Manipulation Via Expenditure Composition: Theory and Evidence,” NBER Working Paper 11085.
23. Dubois, E. (2016). “Political Business Cycles 40 Years After Nordhaus”. Public Choice, 166(1-2), 235-259.
24. Efthyvoulou, G. (2012). “Political Budget Cycles in The European Union and The İmpact of Political Pressures”. Public Choice, 153(3-4), 295-327.
25. Erguder, U. (1980). “Politics of Agricultural Price Policy in Turkey”. The political economy of income distribution in Turkey. New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers Ltd.
26. Ergun, M. (2000). “Electoral Political-Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: Evidence From Turkey”. Russian & East European Finance and Trade, 36(6), 6-32.
27. Eryılmaz, F. (2014). Politik Konjonktür Teorileri Işığında Türk İktisat Politika Çıktılarının Analizi, Doktora Tezi, Uludağ Üniversitesi.
28. Eryılmaz, F. ve Mercan, M. (2015). “Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Turkey”. Annals of Constantin Brancusi University of Targu-Jiu. Economy Series, (2).
29. Eryılmaz, F., ve Murat, D. (2016). “Searching For Political Business Cycles in Turkey: Findings From Fiscal Policy”. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (17), 197-210.
30. Eslava, M. (2005). Political budget cycles or voters as fiscal conservatives? Evidence from Colombia (No. 003343). Universidad de los Andes-CEDE.
31. Eslava, M. (2011). “The Political Economy of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey”. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(4), 645
32. Ete, H. (2018). “24 Haziran Seçimleri: Yeni Sistemin Siyaseti ve Sosyoloji”. Muhafazakar Düşünce, 15(54).
33. Fair, R. C. (1978). “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President”. The review of economics and statistics, 159-173.
34. Frenkel, S. (2014). “Competence and Ambiguity in Electoral Competition”. Public Choice, 159(1-2), 219-234.
35. Gurkan, A. A. ve Kasnakoglu, H. (1991). “The Political Economics of Agricultural Price Support in Turkey: An Empirical Assessment”. Public Choice, 70(3), 277-298.
36. Hadi, A. S. (1992). “Identifying Multiple Outliers in Multivariate Data”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 54(3), 761-771.
37. Hallerberg, M., de Souza, L. V., & Clark, W. R. (2002). “Political Business Cycles in EU Accession Countries”. European Union Politics, 3(2), 231-250.
38. Hanusch, M. (2012). “Coalition Incentives for Political Budget Cycles”. Public Choice, 151(1/2), 121-136.
39. Harris, R. D., ve Tzavalis, E. (1999). “Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where The Time Dimension is Fixed”. Journal of Econometrics, 91(2), 201-226.
40. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı Merkezi Yönetim Bütçe İstatistikleri, https://www.hmb.gov.tr/bumko-butce-buyuklukleri-ve-butce-gerceklesmeleri (09.10.2020).
41. Hibbs, D. A. (1977). “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”. American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467-1487.
42. Hotunluoğlu, H. (2016). “Türkiye’de Politik Bütçe Hareketlerinin Kamu Harcamalarının Dağılımı Açısından Analizi”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(1), 113-125.
43. Hotunluoğlu, H., ve Tekeli, R. (2013). “Budget Deficits and Democracy: The Case of Turkey”. Sosyoekonomi, 19(19).
44. Ito, T., ve Park, J. H. (1988). “Political Business Cycles in The Parliamentary System”. Economics Letters, 27(3), 233-238.
45. Karakaş, M. (2013). “Political Business Cycles in Turkey: A Fiscal Approach”. Journal of Management & Economics, 20(1).
46. Katsimi, M., ve Sarantides, V. (2012). “Do Elections Affect The Composition of Fiscal Policy in Developed, Established Democracies?”. Public Choice, 151(1-2), 325-362.
47. Kittel, B., ve Winner, H. (2005). “How Reliable is Pooled Analysis in Political Economy? The Globalization‐Welfare State Nexus Revisited”. European Journal of Political Research, 44(2), 269-293.
48. Kraemer, M. (1997): “Electoral Budget Cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean: Incidence, Causes and Political Futility,” Inter-American development Bank Working Paper,
49. Kramer, G. H. (1971). “Short-term Fluctuations in US Voting Behavior, 1896–1964”. American Political Science Review, 65(1), 131-143.
50. Lohmann, S. (1998). “Rationalizing the Political Business Cycle: A Workhorse Model”. Economics & Politics, 10(1), 1-17.
51. Mandon, P. ve Cazals, A. (2019). “Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation by Leaders Versus Manipulation by Researchers? Evidence from a Meta‐Regression Analysis”. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(1), 274-308.
52. Mink, M., ve De Haan, J. (2006). “Are There Political Budget Cycles in the Euro Area?”. European Union Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271-1295.
53. Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). “The Political Business Cycle”. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169-190.
54. Onur, S. (2002). “Politik bütçe döngüleri ve Türkiye ekonomisi (1975-2000)”. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2, 85-126.
55. Özkan, F. ve Tarı, R. (2010). “Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Seçim Dönemlerinin Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmaları Teorisi Çerçevesinde Analizi”. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (36), 223-238.
56. Pehlivan, O. (2018). Devlet Bütçesi. Ekin Yayınevi.
57. Peltzman, S. (1992): “Voters as Fiscal Conservatives,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 327-361.
58. Persson, T., ve Tabellini, G. (2001). “Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes: What Are The Stylized Facts?” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2872
59. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240
60. Rodrik, D. (1998). “Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?”. Journal of Political Economy, 106(5), 997-1032.
61. Rogoff , K., 1990. “Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 1, pp. 21-36,
62. Rogoff, K., ve Sibert, A. (1988). “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles”. The Review of Economic Studies, 55(1), 1-16.
63. Sara, O. (2001). “Politik Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları ve Türkiye Uygulaması (1950-2000)”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2).
64. Savaşan, F., ve Dursun, İ. (2006). “Türkiye’de Yerel Düzeyde Politik Konjonktürel Devreler”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 191-208.
65. Schuknecht, L. (1996). “Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries”. Kyklos, 49(2),
66. Shi, M., ve Svensson, J. (2006). “Political Budget Cycles: Do They Differ Across Countries and Why?”. Journal of Public Economics, 90(8-9), 1367-1389.
67. Shi, M., ve Svensson, J. (2002). “Political Budget Cycles in Developed and Developing Countries”. Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, 18.
68. Takashi, I. (1981). “Explaining and Predicting Japanese General Elections, 1960-1980”. Journal of Japanese Studies, 7(2), 285-318.
69. Telatar, F. (2000). “Parlamenter Sistemlerde Politik Devresel Dalgalanmalar: Teori ve Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama”. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(1), 133-154.
70. Torres-Reyna, O. (2007). Panel Data Analysis Fixed and Random Effect Using Stata https://www.princeton.edu/~otorres/Panel101.pdf (28.04.2020)
71. Tufte, E. R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton University Press.
72. Tutar, I., ve Tansel, A. (2000). “Political Business Cycles, Institutional Structure and Budget Deficits in Turkey”. In Economic Research Forum Working Paper (No. 2019).
73. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), https://data.tuik.gov.tr/tr/ (09.10.2020).
74. Vergne, C. (2009). “Democracy, Elections and Allocation of Public Expenditures in Developing Countries”. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 63-77.
75. Wooldridge, J. M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
76. Yüksek Seçim Kurulu, EK-I Sayılı Cetvel, http://www.ysk.gov.tr/doc/dosyalar/docs/24Haziran2018/2018CBMVillerdekiMVSayilari.pdf (28.04.2020)