Korumacılığın ve Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Küresel Ticarete Etkisinin Panel Çekim Modeli ile Test Edilmesi

Öz

Korumacılık ve serbest ticaret politikalarının Dünya ticaretinin boyutu ve kapsamı üzerinde önemli etkileri vardır. Ülkelerin kendi ekonomilerini ve kırılgan sektörlerini korumak için dış ticareti kısıtlamak adına aldıkları önlemler ile bunun tam karşısında ticaret engellerini kaldırarak, diğer ülkelerle aralarındaki ticareti kolaylaştırmayı amaçlayan politikalar uygulamalarının küresel ticaret hacmini ve ülkelerin milli gelir düzeylerini nasıl etkilediği konusu önemli bir tartışma alanıdır. Bu çalışmada bu tartışmalı alandaki konular kavramsal olarak ele alınmış ve konu kapsamlı bir literatür incelemesi ile desteklenmiştir. Çalışmanın uygulama bölümünde ise ABD örneği üzerinden panel çekim modeli test edilmiştir. 2000-2019 dönemi için ABD’nin ticaret hacmi olarak en çok dış ticaret yaptığı ve/veya serbest ticaret anlaşması akdettiği 43 ülke üzerinden panel çekim modeli kurulmuştur. Rastsal etkiler modeli yaklaşımının uygulandığı panel regresyon analizleri EGLS (yatay kesit ağırlıklı) yöntemiyle Eviews 12 ekonometri programı üzerinden gerçekleştirilmiş olup, söz konusu dönem için panel çekim modeli doğrulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : Korumacılık
• Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması
• Linder Değişkeni
• Panel Çekim Modeli

Testing the Impact of Protection and Free Trade Agreements on Global Trade with Panel Data Analysis

Öz

Protectionism and free trade policies have significant impacts on the size and scope of world trade. The debate on how policies that restrict international trade to protect domestic economies and vulnerable sectors versus policies that aim to facilitate trade with other countries by removing trade barriers affect global trade volume and national income levels is an important topic. This study provides a conceptual analysis of these controversial issues and is supported by a comprehensive literature review. In the application section of the study, a panel data model is tested using the example of the United States. A panel data model is established using the 43 countries with which the US has the most foreign trade and/or has signed a free trade agreement for the period 2000-2019. Panel regression analyses using the random effects model approach were carried out using the EGLS (pooled cross-section and time-series weighted) method in the Eviews 12 econometric program, and the panel data model was verified for the specified period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Protectionism
• Free Trade Agreement
• Linder Variable
• Panel Gravity Model

Kaynakça

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