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MIDAS Impact Analysis on Profitability of Participation and Conventional Banks

Year 2025, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 168 - 196, 30.09.2025
https://doi.org/10.54427/ijisef.1614800

Abstract

This study examines the macroeconomic factors affecting the profitability of participation and conventional banking systems using the MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regression model. The MIDAS method is preferred because it allows the integration of high frequency (daily, monthly) explanatory variables with low frequency (quarterly) dependent variables. Data for the period 2012:01-2024:12 are used in the analysis. Banks' net profit is included in the model at quarterly frequency, CDS premium at monthly frequency, USD exchange rate, EUR exchange rate and gold prices at daily frequency. According to the modeling results, CDS premium and USD exchange rate have positive and significant effects on the profitability of deposit banks. An increase in the CDS premium supports profitability due to banks' tendency to increase loan interest margins. An increase in the USD exchange rate, on the other hand, strengthens loan repayments through the increase in the income of exporting firms, thus contributing positively to banks' performance. The EUR exchange rate and gold prices, on the other hand, have limited negative effects on the profitability of deposit banks. In the model for participation banks, the CDS premium and the USD exchange rate have positive effects; however, these effects are of different severity due to the specific structure and pricing elasticity of the banking model. EUR exchange rate and gold prices also have a negative impact on profitability in this bank group. Overall, this study makes an important contribution to understanding the effects of macroeconomic indicators in the banking sector and improving banks' risk management strategies, and provides recommendations for policy makers and bank managers.

References

  • Akbaş, F. (2023). Kurumsal Yönetim, Bankaya Özgü ve Makro Değişkenlerin Kârlılık Üzerindeki Etkisi: BİST’te İşlem Gören Bankalar Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, (11), 63-74. https://doi.org/10.58627/dpuiibf.1299474
  • Andreou, E., Ghysels, E., & Kourtellos, A. (2010). Regression Models With Mixed Sampling Frequencies. Journal of Econometrics, 158(2), 246-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.01.004
  • Athanasoglou, P. P., Brissimis, S. N., & Delis, M. D. (2008). Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18(2), 121-136.
  • Aziz, O. and Knutsen, J. (2019). The Banks Profitability And Economic Freedom Quality: Empirical Evidence From Arab Economies. Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, 1/2019(11), 96-110.
  • Bakoush, M., Abouarab, R., & Wolfe, S. (2019). Disentangling the impact of securitization on bank profitability. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 519-537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.09.013
  • Bal, H., & Sönmezer, S. (2022). Türkiye’de bankacılık sektörünün kârlılığının belirleyicileri. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 23(2), 243-254.
  • Barışık, S., & Demirel, B. (2014). Finansal Kırılganlık ve Türk Bankacılık Sektörü İçin 2002-2011 Dönemi FinansalKırılganlık Endeksi. TISK Academy/TISK Akademi, 9(17).
  • Bayrakdaroğlu, A., & Aydın, G. C. (2017). Mevduat Faiz Oranlarındaki Değişkenliğin Kredi Hacmi Üzerindeki Etkisine Yönelik Bir Araştırma. Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 120-149.
  • Berk, J., & DeMarzo, P. (2016). Corporate Finance, GE. Pearson Australia Pty Limited. Chong, B. S., & Liu, M. H. (2009). Islamic banking: interest-free or interest-based?. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 17(1), 125-144.
  • Çoban Çelikdemir, N., Kılıç Depren, S., Ayhan, F., & Kartal, M. T. (2024). Temel Finansal Göstergelerin Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Kârlılığına Etkisi: Kovid-19 Pandemi Öncesi ve Pandemi Dönemine İlişkin Karşılaştırmalı Sonuçlar. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15(2), 271-292. https://doi.org/10.54558/jiss.1407201
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531. Dietrich, A., & Wanzenried, G. (2011). Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 21(3), 307-327.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
  • Foroni, C., Marcellino, M., & Schumacher, C. (2015). Unrestricted mixed data sampling (U-MIDAS): MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 178(1), 57–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12043
  • Garcia, M. and Trindade, M. (2019). Determinants of banks’ profitability in Angola. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 10(1), 116-128. https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-06-2018-0161
  • Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., & Valkanov, R. (2006). MIDAS regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric Reviews, 26(1), 53–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930600972462eScholarship+2Vikipedi+2Vikipedi+2
  • Hasanov, F., Bayramli, N., & Al-Musehel, N. (2018). Bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability: evidence from an oil-dependent economy. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(3), 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030078
  • Ibrahim, M. H., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2018). Bank lending, deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks. Emerging Markets Review, 35, 31-47.
  • Iqbal, Z., & Mirakhor, A. (2011). An introduction to Islamic finance: Theory and practice (Vol. 687). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Kartal, F. (2023). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe 2022 Yılı Kârlılığının Belirleyicileri. Marmara Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 19, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.58793/marusad.127522
  • Kelleroğlu, F. (2017). Katılım Bankacılığı Alanında Yaşanan Küresel Gelişmeler. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 157-172.
  • Kelmendi, V. (2024). Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Financial Performance: A Turkey and Kosovo Comparative Study. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 19(1).
  • Klein, P. and Weill, L. (2022). Bank profitability and economic growth. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84, 183-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.01.009
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Mery, M. and Dony, C. (2021). The effects of credit growth on risk and performance of conventional banks in indonesia. Journal of International Conference Proceedings, 4(1), 140-149.
  • Oliveira, R., Tabak, B. M., & Cajueiro, D. O. (2024). Determinant Factors of Banking Profitability: An Application of Quantile Regression for Panel Data. Future Business Journal, 10(56). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-024-00347-z
  • Ozili, P. and Arun, T. (2022). Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 19(4), 803-830. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijmf-04-2022-0177
  • Özçim, R., & Kaya, O. (2021). Katılım Bankalarında Kredi Riskini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Göstergeler: Türkiye analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 21(3), 451-467. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/esosder/issue/59802/784549
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  • Said, S. E., & Dickey, D. A. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order. Biometrika, 71(3), 599–607. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.3.599
  • Salihoğlu, S. (2022). Türkiye’de Katılım Bankacılığı Sektörünün Aktif Büyüklüğü İle Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişki. Ekonomik Perspektifler ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(2), 124-139. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/epfad/article/1148425
  • Shan, C., Tang, D., Yan, H., & Zhou, X. (2020). Credit default swaps and bank regulatory capital*. Review of Finance, 25(1), 121-152. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfaa021
  • Siddiqi, M. N. (2006). Islamic banking and finance in theory and practice: A survey of state of the art. Islamic economic studies, 13(2).
  • Sufian, F. and Zulkhibri, M. (2015). The nexus between economic freedom and islamic bank profitability in the mena banking sectors. Global Business Review, 16(5_suppl), 58S-81S. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150915601256
  • Tabassum, N. and Yameen, M. (2023). Why do banks use credit default swaps (cds)? a systematic review. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38(1), 201-231. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12547
  • Tan, Y. and Floros, C. (2012). Bank profitability and gdp growth in china: a note. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(3), 267-273. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2012.703541
  • Tomak, S. (2024). Factors Affecting Bank Profitability in Türkiye. Uluslararası İşletme ve Ekonomi Çalışmaları Dergisi, 6(4), 214-226. https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1536978
  • Topak, M. S., & Talu, N. H. (2017). Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 574–584. https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4463
  • Ünlü, M. (2023). BİST Bankacılık Sektörünün Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Fourier ARDL Yaklaşımı. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (52), 285-295. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1349535
  • Weill, L. and Zins, A. (2021). Is islamic banking more procyclical? cross-country evidence. Comparative Economic Studies, 63(2), 318-335. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-020-00143-y
  • Zarrouk, H., Ben Jedidia, K., & Moualhi, M. (2016). Is Islamic bank profitability driven by same forces as conventional banks?. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 9(1), 46-66.

Katılım ve Mevduat Bankalarının Karlılıkları Üzerine MİDAS Etki Analizi

Year 2025, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 168 - 196, 30.09.2025
https://doi.org/10.54427/ijisef.1614800

Abstract

Bu çalışma, katılım ve mevduat bankacılık sistemlerinin kârlılıklarını etkileyen makroekonomik faktörleri MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regresyon modeli kullanarak incelemektedir. MIDAS yöntemi, yüksek frekanslı (günlük, aylık) açıklayıcı değişkenlerin düşük frekanslı (çeyreklik) bağımlı değişkenle entegrasyonuna olanak sağlaması nedeniyle tercih edilmiştir. Analizlerde 2012:01–2024:12 dönemine ait veriler kullanılmıştır. Bankaların net dönem kârı çeyreklik, CDS primi aylık, USD kuru, EUR kuru ve altın fiyatları ise günlük frekansta modele dâhil edilmiştir. Modelleme sonuçlarına göre, mevduat bankalarının kârlılıkları üzerinde CDS primi ve USD kuru pozitif ve anlamlı etkiler göstermektedir. CDS primindeki artış, bankaların kredi faiz marjlarını yükseltme eğilimlerinden dolayı kârlılığı desteklemektedir. USD kurundaki yükseliş ise ihracatçı firmaların gelir artışı üzerinden kredi geri dönüşlerini güçlendirmekte, böylece bankaların performansına olumlu katkı sağlamaktadır. EUR kuru ve altın fiyatları ise mevduat bankalarının kârlılığı üzerinde sınırlı düzeyde negatif etkiler üretmektedir. Katılım bankalarına ilişkin modelde CDS primi ve USD kuru pozitif yönlü etkiler göstermekte; ancak bu etkiler, bankacılık modeline özgü yapı ve fiyatlama esnekliği nedeniyle farklı şiddette ortaya çıkmaktadır. EUR kuru ve altın fiyatları bu banka grubunda da kârlılığı olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Genel olarak bu çalışma, makroekonomik göstergelerin bankacılık sektöründeki etkilerini anlamak ve bankaların risk yönetimi stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi için önemli bir katkı sunmakta ve politika yapıcılar ile banka yöneticileri için önerilerde bulunmaktadır.

References

  • Akbaş, F. (2023). Kurumsal Yönetim, Bankaya Özgü ve Makro Değişkenlerin Kârlılık Üzerindeki Etkisi: BİST’te İşlem Gören Bankalar Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, (11), 63-74. https://doi.org/10.58627/dpuiibf.1299474
  • Andreou, E., Ghysels, E., & Kourtellos, A. (2010). Regression Models With Mixed Sampling Frequencies. Journal of Econometrics, 158(2), 246-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.01.004
  • Athanasoglou, P. P., Brissimis, S. N., & Delis, M. D. (2008). Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18(2), 121-136.
  • Aziz, O. and Knutsen, J. (2019). The Banks Profitability And Economic Freedom Quality: Empirical Evidence From Arab Economies. Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, 1/2019(11), 96-110.
  • Bakoush, M., Abouarab, R., & Wolfe, S. (2019). Disentangling the impact of securitization on bank profitability. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 519-537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.09.013
  • Bal, H., & Sönmezer, S. (2022). Türkiye’de bankacılık sektörünün kârlılığının belirleyicileri. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 23(2), 243-254.
  • Barışık, S., & Demirel, B. (2014). Finansal Kırılganlık ve Türk Bankacılık Sektörü İçin 2002-2011 Dönemi FinansalKırılganlık Endeksi. TISK Academy/TISK Akademi, 9(17).
  • Bayrakdaroğlu, A., & Aydın, G. C. (2017). Mevduat Faiz Oranlarındaki Değişkenliğin Kredi Hacmi Üzerindeki Etkisine Yönelik Bir Araştırma. Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 120-149.
  • Berk, J., & DeMarzo, P. (2016). Corporate Finance, GE. Pearson Australia Pty Limited. Chong, B. S., & Liu, M. H. (2009). Islamic banking: interest-free or interest-based?. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 17(1), 125-144.
  • Çoban Çelikdemir, N., Kılıç Depren, S., Ayhan, F., & Kartal, M. T. (2024). Temel Finansal Göstergelerin Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Kârlılığına Etkisi: Kovid-19 Pandemi Öncesi ve Pandemi Dönemine İlişkin Karşılaştırmalı Sonuçlar. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15(2), 271-292. https://doi.org/10.54558/jiss.1407201
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531. Dietrich, A., & Wanzenried, G. (2011). Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 21(3), 307-327.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
  • Foroni, C., Marcellino, M., & Schumacher, C. (2015). Unrestricted mixed data sampling (U-MIDAS): MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 178(1), 57–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12043
  • Garcia, M. and Trindade, M. (2019). Determinants of banks’ profitability in Angola. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 10(1), 116-128. https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-06-2018-0161
  • Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., & Valkanov, R. (2006). MIDAS regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric Reviews, 26(1), 53–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930600972462eScholarship+2Vikipedi+2Vikipedi+2
  • Hasanov, F., Bayramli, N., & Al-Musehel, N. (2018). Bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability: evidence from an oil-dependent economy. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(3), 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030078
  • Ibrahim, M. H., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2018). Bank lending, deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks. Emerging Markets Review, 35, 31-47.
  • Iqbal, Z., & Mirakhor, A. (2011). An introduction to Islamic finance: Theory and practice (Vol. 687). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Kartal, F. (2023). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe 2022 Yılı Kârlılığının Belirleyicileri. Marmara Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 19, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.58793/marusad.127522
  • Kelleroğlu, F. (2017). Katılım Bankacılığı Alanında Yaşanan Küresel Gelişmeler. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 157-172.
  • Kelmendi, V. (2024). Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Financial Performance: A Turkey and Kosovo Comparative Study. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 19(1).
  • Klein, P. and Weill, L. (2022). Bank profitability and economic growth. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84, 183-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.01.009
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Mery, M. and Dony, C. (2021). The effects of credit growth on risk and performance of conventional banks in indonesia. Journal of International Conference Proceedings, 4(1), 140-149.
  • Oliveira, R., Tabak, B. M., & Cajueiro, D. O. (2024). Determinant Factors of Banking Profitability: An Application of Quantile Regression for Panel Data. Future Business Journal, 10(56). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-024-00347-z
  • Ozili, P. and Arun, T. (2022). Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 19(4), 803-830. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijmf-04-2022-0177
  • Özçim, R., & Kaya, O. (2021). Katılım Bankalarında Kredi Riskini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Göstergeler: Türkiye analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 21(3), 451-467. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/esosder/issue/59802/784549
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  • Said, S. E., & Dickey, D. A. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order. Biometrika, 71(3), 599–607. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.3.599
  • Salihoğlu, S. (2022). Türkiye’de Katılım Bankacılığı Sektörünün Aktif Büyüklüğü İle Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişki. Ekonomik Perspektifler ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(2), 124-139. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/epfad/article/1148425
  • Shan, C., Tang, D., Yan, H., & Zhou, X. (2020). Credit default swaps and bank regulatory capital*. Review of Finance, 25(1), 121-152. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfaa021
  • Siddiqi, M. N. (2006). Islamic banking and finance in theory and practice: A survey of state of the art. Islamic economic studies, 13(2).
  • Sufian, F. and Zulkhibri, M. (2015). The nexus between economic freedom and islamic bank profitability in the mena banking sectors. Global Business Review, 16(5_suppl), 58S-81S. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150915601256
  • Tabassum, N. and Yameen, M. (2023). Why do banks use credit default swaps (cds)? a systematic review. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38(1), 201-231. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12547
  • Tan, Y. and Floros, C. (2012). Bank profitability and gdp growth in china: a note. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(3), 267-273. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2012.703541
  • Tomak, S. (2024). Factors Affecting Bank Profitability in Türkiye. Uluslararası İşletme ve Ekonomi Çalışmaları Dergisi, 6(4), 214-226. https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1536978
  • Topak, M. S., & Talu, N. H. (2017). Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 574–584. https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4463
  • Ünlü, M. (2023). BİST Bankacılık Sektörünün Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Fourier ARDL Yaklaşımı. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (52), 285-295. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1349535
  • Weill, L. and Zins, A. (2021). Is islamic banking more procyclical? cross-country evidence. Comparative Economic Studies, 63(2), 318-335. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-020-00143-y
  • Zarrouk, H., Ben Jedidia, K., & Moualhi, M. (2016). Is Islamic bank profitability driven by same forces as conventional banks?. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 9(1), 46-66.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Participation Banking, Islamic Finance
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Eyyüp Ensari Şahin 0000-0003-2110-7571

Recep Çakar 0000-0002-4069-7653

Early Pub Date September 29, 2025
Publication Date September 30, 2025
Submission Date January 7, 2025
Acceptance Date August 26, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 11 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Şahin, E. E., & Çakar, R. (2025). Katılım ve Mevduat Bankalarının Karlılıkları Üzerine MİDAS Etki Analizi. Uluslararası İslam Ekonomisi Ve Finansı Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 168-196. https://doi.org/10.54427/ijisef.1614800

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