THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AND AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Year 2024, , 279 - 305, 28.06.2024

Kurtuluş Merdan

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1414289

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural
employment on economic growth in Türkiye by utilizing annual data for the period 2000-2022. Benefiting
from empirical analysis, the variables in the study were primarily tested with the unit root test. The
differences of the variables for which unit roots were determined were purified from unit roots as the
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test suggests. Appropriate lag test was applied to the series and then
the causality relationship between economic growth, agricultural employment rate and agricultural
support amount was analyzed according to the results of cointegration, error-corrected VAR estimation,
and Granger causality test. Based on the results of the analysis, agricultural subsidies do not have a
significant effect on economic growth or economic growth on agricultural subsidies, whereas agricultural
employment has a bidirectional and positive effect on economic growth. Causality findings indicate no
causality between agricultural subsidies and economic growth. A bidirectional and positive economic
growth as a result of agricultural employment was determined, and the existence of a causality relationship
between the two variables has been demonstrated. In conclusion, it has been found that agricultural
subsidies provided for economic growth in Türkiye have not yielded effective results, whereas agricultural
employment provided positive reflections. Therefore, taking measures for a controlled transition from the
agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors over time, thus increasing the quality and adaptability of
the workforce in the sector, and recording employment through incentives will make a great contribution
to the solution of the problem.

Keywords

economıc Growth, Agricultural supports, agricultural employment

TARIMSAL DESTEKLEMELERİN VE TARIMSAL İSTİHDAMIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ: BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle tarımsal desteklemelerin ve
tarımsal istihdamın ekonomik büyüme üzerine olan etkilerini incelemektir. Ampirik analizin kullanıldığı bu
çalışmada öncelikle değişkenler birim kök testiyle sınanmıştır. Birim kök tespit edilen değişkenlerin farkları
Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) testine göre birim kökten arındırılmıştır. Serilere uygun gecikme testi
uygulanmış ve ardından ekonomik büyüme, tarımsal istihdam oranı ve tarımsal destek miktarı arasındaki
nedensellik ilişkisi eş bütünleşme, hata düzeltmeli VAR tahmini ve Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre, tarımsal desteklemelerin ekonomik büyüme
üzerinde ya da ekonomik büyümenin tarımsal desteklemeler üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığı
tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik bulguları ise tarımsal destekler ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedenselliğin
olmadığına işaret etmektedir. Tarımsal istihdamın ise ekonomik büyümeyi çift yönlü ve pozitif bir şekilde
etkilediği tespit edilmiş, iki değişken arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç
olarak; Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeye yönelik verilen tarımsal desteklerin etkili olmadığı buna karşılık
tarımsal istihdamın olumlu yansımalarının olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla tarım sektöründen
tarım dışı sektörlere zamana yayılan kontrollü bir geçiş için önlemler alınması ve bu şekilde sektördeki
işgücünün niteliği ve uyum yeteneğinin artırılması, teşvikler yoluyla istihdamın kayıt altına alınması gibi
tedbirler sorunun çözümünde büyük katkı sunacaktır.

Keywords

tarımsal destekler, tarımsal istihdam, ekonomik büyüme

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