TARIMSAL DESTEKLEMELERİN VE TARIMSAL İSTİHDAMIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ: BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle tarımsal desteklemelerin ve tarımsal istihdamın ekonomik büyüme üzerine olan etkilerini incelemektir. Ampirik analizin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada öncelikle değişkenler birim kök testiyle sınanmıştır. Birim kök tespit edilen değişkenlerin farkları Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) testine göre birim kökten arındırılmıştır. Serilere uygun gecikme testi uygulanmış ve ardından ekonomik büyüme, tarımsal istihdam oranı ve tarımsal destek miktarı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi eş bütünleşme, hata düzeltmeli VAR tahmini ve Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre, tarımsal desteklemelerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ya da ekonomik büyümenin tarımsal desteklemeler üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik bulguları ise tarımsal destekler ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedenselliğin olmadığına işaret etmektedir. Tarımsal istihdamın ise ekonomik büyümeyi çift yönlü ve pozitif bir şekilde etkilediği tespit edilmiş, iki değişken arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç olarak; Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeye yönelik verilen tarımsal desteklerin etkili olmadığı buna karşılık tarımsal istihdamın olumlu yansımalarının olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla tarım sektöründen tarım dışı sektörlere zamana yayılan kontrollü bir geçiş için önlemler alınması ve bu şekilde sektördeki işgücünün niteliği ve uyum yeteneğinin artırılması, teşvikler yoluyla istihdamın kayıt altına alınması gibi tedbirler sorunun çözümünde büyük katkı sunacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• tarımsal destekler
• tarımsal istihdam
• ekonomik büyüme

THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AND AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural employment on economic growth in Türkiye by utilizing annual data for the period 2000-2022. Benefiting from empirical analysis, the variables in the study were primarily tested with the unit root test. The differences of the variables for which unit roots were determined were purified from unit roots as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test suggests. Appropriate lag test was applied to the series and then the causality relationship between economic growth, agricultural employment rate and agricultural support amount was analyzed according to the results of cointegration, error-corrected VAR estimation, and Granger causality test. Based on the results of the analysis, agricultural subsidies do not have a significant effect on economic growth or economic growth on agricultural subsidies, whereas agricultural employment has a bidirectional and positive effect on economic growth. Causality findings indicate no causality between agricultural subsidies and economic growth. A bidirectional and positive economic growth as a result of agricultural employment was determined, and the existence of a causality relationship between the two variables has been demonstrated. In conclusion, it has been found that agricultural subsidies provided for economic growth in Türkiye have not yielded effective results, whereas agricultural employment provided positive reflections. Therefore, taking measures for a controlled transition from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors over time, thus increasing the quality and adaptability of the workforce in the sector, and recording employment through incentives will make a great contribution to the solution of the problem.

Keywords

• economıc Growth
• Agricultural supports
• agricultural employment

Kaynakça

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