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CAN RETAIL SALES FORECAST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE? A CASE STUDY

Year 2014, , 243 - 254, 01.09.2014
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2014.10.23.634

Abstract

This study empirically tests the forecasting/explaining capability of consumer confidence on retail sales. Using the United Kingdom data, sample period covers 1988Q1 to 2011Q3. Retail sales represented in three different levels as total retail sales, food retail sales and retail sales excluding food which are used in two different regression model by using quarterly data. Results indicate that consumer confidence level explains total retail sales and food retail sales at relatively low level, but do not explain retail sales excluding food

References

  • Acemoğlu, D., & Scott, A. (1994). Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents’ beliefs consistent with the theory?. The Economic Journal, 104(422), 1-19.
  • Allenby, G. M., Jen, L., & Leone, R. P. (1996). Economic trends and being trendy: The influence of consumer confidence on retail fashion sales. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(1), 103-111.
  • Berry, S., & Davey, M. (2004). How should we think about consumer confidence?. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn, 282-290.
  • Bram, J., & Ludvigson, S. (1998). Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? A sentiment index horse race. FRBNY Economic Policy Review, June, 59-78.
  • Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?. The American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
  • Chakrabarty, S., Chopin, M. C., & Darrat, A. F. (1998). Predicting future buyer behavior with consumers confidence and sentiment indexes. Marketing Letters, 9(4), 349–360.
  • Claveria, O., Pons, E., & Ramos, R. (2005). Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 47– 69.
  • Côté, D., & Johnson, M. (1998). Consumer attitudes uncertainty and consumer spending. Bank of Canada. Working Paper, 98(16), 1-30, from http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp- content/uploads/2010/05/wp98-16.pdf.
  • Croushore, D. (2005). Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 435–450.
  • Dion, D. P. (2006). Does consumer confidence forecast household spending?. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-24, from http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/902/.
  • Delorme, C. D., Kamerschen, D. R., & Voeks, L. F. (2002). Consumer confidence and rational expectations in the United States compared with the United Kingdom. Applied Economics, 33, 863-869.
  • Fan, C. S., & Wong, P. (1998). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?. The Hong Kong case. Economics Letters, 58, 77–84.
  • Garrett, A. G., Hernández-Murillo, R., & Owyang, M. T. (2004). Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 87 (2-1), 123-35.
  • Jonsson, A., & Lindén, S. (2009). The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator. European Commission, Working Paper, 372, from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_ finance/publications/publication14353_en.pdf.
  • Kamakura, W. A., & Gessner, G. (1986). Consumer sentiment and buying intentions. Journal of Economic Psychol, 7, 197-220.
  • Katona, G. (1968). Consumer behavior: Theory and findings on expectations and aspirations. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 58, 19-30.
  • Katona, G. (1975). Psychological economics. New York: Oxford and Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific.
  • Kwan, C. C., & Cotsomitis, J. A. (2005). Does consumer confidence matter for household spending? Evidence from Japan. from http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/eco/staff/cckwan/ researchPaper/KC_CCI_Japan_OBES-5.pdf.
  • Kwan, C. C., & Cotsomitis, J. A. (2006). The usefulness of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending in Canada: A national and regional analysis. Economic Inquiry, 44(1) 185–197.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1978). Consumer sentiment and spending on durable goods. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 217–232.
  • Spreng, R. A., & Page, T. J. (2001). The impact of confidence in expectations on consumer satisfaction. Psychology & Marketing, November, 18(11), 1187–1204.
  • Thoop, A. W. (1992). Consumer sentiment: Its causes and effects. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1, 35-59.
  • Vuchelen, J. (2004). Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts. Journal of Economic Psychology, 25, 493–506.

TÜKETİCİ GÜVENİ PERAKENDE SATIŞLARDAKİ DEĞİŞİMİ ÖNGÖREBİLİR Mİ? BİR ÖRNEK UYGULAMA

Year 2014, , 243 - 254, 01.09.2014
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2014.10.23.634

Abstract

Bu çalışmada tüketici güven endeksinin perakende satışlarını öngörebilme/açıklayabilme yeteneği test edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Birleşik Krallık verileri kullanılarak yapılan örnek uygulamada örneklem dönemi 1988.Q1-2011.Q3 kapsamaktadır. Üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı ve iki farklı regresyon modelinin kullanıldığı çalışmada perakende satışlar; toplam perakende satışlar, gıda ürünleri perakende satışları ve gıda dışı ürünler perakende satışları olmak üzere üç farklı düzeyde temsil edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar tüketici güven düzeyinin gıda dışı perakende satışlardaki değişimi açıklamakta yetersiz olduğunu fakat gıda ürünleri ve toplam perakende satışları üzerinde etkili olabileceğini göstermiştir.

References

  • Acemoğlu, D., & Scott, A. (1994). Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents’ beliefs consistent with the theory?. The Economic Journal, 104(422), 1-19.
  • Allenby, G. M., Jen, L., & Leone, R. P. (1996). Economic trends and being trendy: The influence of consumer confidence on retail fashion sales. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(1), 103-111.
  • Berry, S., & Davey, M. (2004). How should we think about consumer confidence?. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn, 282-290.
  • Bram, J., & Ludvigson, S. (1998). Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? A sentiment index horse race. FRBNY Economic Policy Review, June, 59-78.
  • Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?. The American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
  • Chakrabarty, S., Chopin, M. C., & Darrat, A. F. (1998). Predicting future buyer behavior with consumers confidence and sentiment indexes. Marketing Letters, 9(4), 349–360.
  • Claveria, O., Pons, E., & Ramos, R. (2005). Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 47– 69.
  • Côté, D., & Johnson, M. (1998). Consumer attitudes uncertainty and consumer spending. Bank of Canada. Working Paper, 98(16), 1-30, from http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp- content/uploads/2010/05/wp98-16.pdf.
  • Croushore, D. (2005). Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 435–450.
  • Dion, D. P. (2006). Does consumer confidence forecast household spending?. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-24, from http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/902/.
  • Delorme, C. D., Kamerschen, D. R., & Voeks, L. F. (2002). Consumer confidence and rational expectations in the United States compared with the United Kingdom. Applied Economics, 33, 863-869.
  • Fan, C. S., & Wong, P. (1998). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?. The Hong Kong case. Economics Letters, 58, 77–84.
  • Garrett, A. G., Hernández-Murillo, R., & Owyang, M. T. (2004). Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 87 (2-1), 123-35.
  • Jonsson, A., & Lindén, S. (2009). The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator. European Commission, Working Paper, 372, from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_ finance/publications/publication14353_en.pdf.
  • Kamakura, W. A., & Gessner, G. (1986). Consumer sentiment and buying intentions. Journal of Economic Psychol, 7, 197-220.
  • Katona, G. (1968). Consumer behavior: Theory and findings on expectations and aspirations. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 58, 19-30.
  • Katona, G. (1975). Psychological economics. New York: Oxford and Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific.
  • Kwan, C. C., & Cotsomitis, J. A. (2005). Does consumer confidence matter for household spending? Evidence from Japan. from http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/eco/staff/cckwan/ researchPaper/KC_CCI_Japan_OBES-5.pdf.
  • Kwan, C. C., & Cotsomitis, J. A. (2006). The usefulness of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending in Canada: A national and regional analysis. Economic Inquiry, 44(1) 185–197.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1978). Consumer sentiment and spending on durable goods. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 217–232.
  • Spreng, R. A., & Page, T. J. (2001). The impact of confidence in expectations on consumer satisfaction. Psychology & Marketing, November, 18(11), 1187–1204.
  • Thoop, A. W. (1992). Consumer sentiment: Its causes and effects. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1, 35-59.
  • Vuchelen, J. (2004). Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts. Journal of Economic Psychology, 25, 493–506.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Yusuf Volkan Topuz This is me

Publication Date September 1, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014

Cite

APA Topuz, Y. V. (2014). TÜKETİCİ GÜVENİ PERAKENDE SATIŞLARDAKİ DEĞİŞİMİ ÖNGÖREBİLİR Mİ? BİR ÖRNEK UYGULAMA. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(23), 243-254. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2014.10.23.634