CAN RETAIL SALES FORECAST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE? A CASE STUDY

Öz

This study empirically tests the forecasting/explaining capability of consumer confidence on retail sales. Using the United Kingdom data, sample period covers 1988Q1 to 2011Q3. Retail sales represented in three different levels as total retail sales, food retail sales and retail sales excluding food which are used in two different regression model by using quarterly data. Results indicate that consumer confidence level explains total retail sales and food retail sales at relatively low level, but do not explain retail sales excluding food

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Consumer Confidence,Retail Sales,Consumer Spending

TÜKETİCİ GÜVENİ PERAKENDE SATIŞLARDAKİ DEĞİŞİMİ ÖNGÖREBİLİR Mİ? BİR ÖRNEK UYGULAMA

Öz

Bu çalışmada tüketici güven endeksinin perakende satışlarını öngörebilme/açıklayabilme yeteneği test edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Birleşik Krallık verileri kullanılarak yapılan örnek uygulamada örneklem dönemi 1988.Q1-2011.Q3 kapsamaktadır. Üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı ve iki farklı regresyon modelinin kullanıldığı çalışmada perakende satışlar; toplam perakende satışlar, gıda ürünleri perakende satışları ve gıda dışı ürünler perakende satışları olmak üzere üç farklı düzeyde temsil edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar tüketici güven düzeyinin gıda dışı perakende satışlardaki değişimi açıklamakta yetersiz olduğunu fakat gıda ürünleri ve toplam perakende satışları üzerinde etkili olabileceğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tüketici Güveni,Perakende Satışlar,Tüketici Harcamaları

Kaynakça

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