PREDICTING THE TREND AND SEASONAL FACTORS OF TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICLES TSP LEVELS IN TRABZON: SEASONAL AND WEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION

Year 2008, Volume: 4 Issue: 8, 73 - 88, 01.12.2008

Ali Sait Albayrak

Abstract

In winter season the air pollution is the one of the most important environmental problems in Trabzon, located in Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The humid climate as well as the densely populated urbanization cause serious problems for a long time period. One of the main targets of air quality management is to estimate the influence of different factors such as trend and seasonality upon air quality levels in a given area. In this paper, an attempt has been made to identify and estimate the trend and seasonal factors in TSP in Trabzon using accurate and reliable techniques. The data used in this study is concerned with monthly measurement levels of TSP taken from January 1996 through May 2007. The most accurate WLS regression results show that the adjusted–R2 is about 83,8% and the monthly averages of TSP do not have a clear trend over the period 1996–2007, the trend estimate is only about 0,08 points per year, which has a statistical significant of 0,681

Keywords

Suspended Particles, Air Quality, Weighted Regression, Decomposition Method

TRABZON’DA TOPLAM ASILI PARTİKÜLLER DÜZEYLERİNDEKİ TRENDİN VE MEVSİMLİK FAKTÖRLERİN TAHMİN EDİLMESI: MEVSİMSEL VE AĞIRLIKLI REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Abstract

In winter season the air pollution is the one of the most important environmental problems in Trabzon, located in Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The humid climate as well as the densely populated urbanization cause serious problems for a long time period. One of the main targets of air quality management is to estimate the influence of different factors such as trend and seasonality upon air quality levels in a given area. In this paper, an attempt has been made to identify and estimate the trend and seasonal factors in TSP in Trabzon using accurate and reliable techniques.The data used in this study is concerned with monthly measurement levels of TSP taken from January 1996 through May 2007. The most accurate WLS regression results show that the adjusted–R2 is about 83,8% and the monthly averages of TSP do not have a clear trend over the period 1996–2007, the trend estimate is only about 0,08 points per year, which has a statistical significant of 0,681.

Keywords

Asılı Partiküller, Hava Kalitesi, Ağırlıklı Regresyon, Bileşenlere Ayırma

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