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AN ANALYSIS OF THE CASUALITY RELEATION BETWEEN PUBLIC EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON WAGNER’S LAW: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2009, Volume: 5 Issue: 9, 1 - 17, 01.06.2009

Muhlis Bağdigen Berna Beşer

Abstract

Although liberal economic polices in favour of a small state are commonly adopted, public expenditures keep rising both in developed and developing countries exhibiting a parallelism with the Wagner’s Law. In this study, the relationship between economic growth and public expenditures in Turkey is analyzed for the period 1950-2005 in the context of Wagner’s Law. The difference of this study from the previous ones is the that in addition to the Granger causality test we used causality tests developed by Hsiao 1979 and Toda and Yamamoto 1995 in seven models. None of the models but one revealed any causality relationship which supports Wagner’s thesis

Keywords

Public Expenditures Wagner’s Law Economic Growth

References

  • Abizadeh, S. ve Yousefi, M. (1996), “Industrialization and Government Expenditures: The Case of South Korea”, International Economic Journal, 10(1), pp. 1-12.
  • Al-Obaid, H.M.A. (2004), “Rapidly Changing Economic Environments and The Wagner’s Law: The Case of Saudi Arabia”, Colorado State University, Department of Economics, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Colarado.
  • Al-Faris, A.F. (2002), “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries”, Applied Economics, 34(9), pp. 1187- 1193.
  • Ansari, M.I, Gordon, D.V. ve Akuamoah, C. (1997), “Keynes Versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries; Kenya, Ghana, South Africa”, Applied Economics, 29(4), pp. 543-548.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2005), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi, 1950- 2005”, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, http://www.tek.org.tr/ dosyalar/ARISOY-05.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 20.01.2006).
  • Bağdigen, M. ve Çetintaş, H. (2003), “Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 6(1), ss. 1-18.
  • Biehl, D. (1998), “Wagner’s Law: An Introduction to and a Translation of the Last Version of Adolph Wagner’s Text of 1911”, Public Finance, 53(1), 102- 111.
  • Burney, N.A. ve Al-Musallam, N. (1999), “Wagner’s Law and Public Expenditure Growth in Kuwait”, http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/ 10.1111/1468-0076.00062 , (Erişim Tarihi: 01.05.2006).
  • Courakis, A.S., Roque, F.M. ve Tridimias, G. (1993), “Public Expenditure Growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner’s Law and Beyond”, Applied Economic, 25, pp. 125-134.
  • Cullis, J. ve Jones, P. (1998), Public Finance and Public Choice, 2nd Edition, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Çavuşoğlu, A.T. (2005), “Testing The Validity of Wagner’s Law in Turkey: The Bounds Testing Approach”, AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 60(1), ss. 73-87.
  • Demirbaş, S. (1999), “Cointegration Analysis - Causality Testing and Wagner’s Law: The Case of Turkey, 1950-1990”, http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/ RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.02.2006).
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2001), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev.: Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen), 2. Baskı, Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2004), Basic Econometrics, 4th Edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2003), “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey: 1960-2000”, Review of Middle East Economy and Finance, 1(2), ss. 129-140.
  • Hsiao, C. (1979), “Autoregressive Modeling of Canadian Money and Income Data”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(367), pp. 553-560.
  • Huang, C. (2006), “Testing Wagner’s Law Using Bounds Test and a New Granger- Non-Causality Test: Evidence for Taiwan”, The Journal of American Academy of Business, 8(2), pp. 86-90.
  • Krzyzaniak, M. (1974), “Government Expenditures, The Revenue Constraint, and Wagner’s Law The Case of Turkey”, Growth & Change, 5(2), pp. 13-19.
  • Loizides, J. ve Vamuoukos, G. (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8, pp. 125-152.
  • Musgrave, R.A. (1969), Fiscal System, Yale University Press, London.
  • Nadaroğlu, H. (1998), Kamu Maliyesi Teorisi, 10. Baskı, Beta Basım, İstanbul.
  • Önder, İ. (1974), Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Seyri: 1927-1967, İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları, No: 1925.
  • Tarı, R. (2005), Ekonometri, 3. Baskı, Alfa Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Taşseven, Ö. (2000), “The Wagner’s Law: Time Series Evidence for Turkey, 1960- 1998”, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, ODTÜ, Ankara.
  • Terzi, H. (1998), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 142, ss. 67- 78.
  • TÜİK (2006), İstatistik Göstergeler, 1923-2004, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/yillik/ Ist_gostergeler.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2006).
  • Toda, H.Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp. 225-250.
  • Yamak, N. ve Küçükkale, Y. (1997), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, İktisat İşletme Finans Dergisi, 12(131), ss. 5-14.
  • Yıldırım, Z.R. (1994), “Türkiye’de Gayrisafi Milli Hasıla ile Kamu Harcamaları Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi”, DEÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(1), ss. 25-40.
  • Yılmaz, Ö.G. (2005); “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Büyüme ile İşsizlik Oranları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi,” Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 2, ss. 11-29.
  • Zivot, E. ve Andrews, D.W.K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 10(3), pp. 251-270.

EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLE KAMU HARCAMALARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİNİN WAGNER TEZİ KAPSAMINDA BİR ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2009, Volume: 5 Issue: 9, 1 - 17, 01.06.2009

Muhlis Bağdigen Berna Beşer

Abstract

Devletin ekonomideki payının küçültülmesini savunan ve yaygın olarak benimsenen liberal iktisat politikalarına rağmen, gerek gelişmiş ve gerekse gelişmekte olan ülkelerde kamu harcamalarının toplam ekonomideki payı, Wagner tezine paralel olarak artmaya devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada da 1950-2005 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişkinin Wagner tezi açısından analizi yapılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın, Türkiye örneği ele alınarak yapılan diğer çalışmalardan farkı, ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin Granger nedensellik testine ilave olarak, Hsiao 1979 ve Toda ve Yamamoto 1995 tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılarak, yedi model ile analiz edilmesidir. Elde edilen bulgularda, bir model dışında hiçbir modelde Wagner tezini destekler nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır.

Keywords

Kamu Harcamaları Wagner Tezi Ekonomik Büyüme

References

  • Abizadeh, S. ve Yousefi, M. (1996), “Industrialization and Government Expenditures: The Case of South Korea”, International Economic Journal, 10(1), pp. 1-12.
  • Al-Obaid, H.M.A. (2004), “Rapidly Changing Economic Environments and The Wagner’s Law: The Case of Saudi Arabia”, Colorado State University, Department of Economics, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Colarado.
  • Al-Faris, A.F. (2002), “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries”, Applied Economics, 34(9), pp. 1187- 1193.
  • Ansari, M.I, Gordon, D.V. ve Akuamoah, C. (1997), “Keynes Versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries; Kenya, Ghana, South Africa”, Applied Economics, 29(4), pp. 543-548.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2005), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi, 1950- 2005”, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, http://www.tek.org.tr/ dosyalar/ARISOY-05.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 20.01.2006).
  • Bağdigen, M. ve Çetintaş, H. (2003), “Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 6(1), ss. 1-18.
  • Biehl, D. (1998), “Wagner’s Law: An Introduction to and a Translation of the Last Version of Adolph Wagner’s Text of 1911”, Public Finance, 53(1), 102- 111.
  • Burney, N.A. ve Al-Musallam, N. (1999), “Wagner’s Law and Public Expenditure Growth in Kuwait”, http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/ 10.1111/1468-0076.00062 , (Erişim Tarihi: 01.05.2006).
  • Courakis, A.S., Roque, F.M. ve Tridimias, G. (1993), “Public Expenditure Growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner’s Law and Beyond”, Applied Economic, 25, pp. 125-134.
  • Cullis, J. ve Jones, P. (1998), Public Finance and Public Choice, 2nd Edition, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Çavuşoğlu, A.T. (2005), “Testing The Validity of Wagner’s Law in Turkey: The Bounds Testing Approach”, AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 60(1), ss. 73-87.
  • Demirbaş, S. (1999), “Cointegration Analysis - Causality Testing and Wagner’s Law: The Case of Turkey, 1950-1990”, http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/ RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.02.2006).
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2001), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev.: Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen), 2. Baskı, Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2004), Basic Econometrics, 4th Edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2003), “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey: 1960-2000”, Review of Middle East Economy and Finance, 1(2), ss. 129-140.
  • Hsiao, C. (1979), “Autoregressive Modeling of Canadian Money and Income Data”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(367), pp. 553-560.
  • Huang, C. (2006), “Testing Wagner’s Law Using Bounds Test and a New Granger- Non-Causality Test: Evidence for Taiwan”, The Journal of American Academy of Business, 8(2), pp. 86-90.
  • Krzyzaniak, M. (1974), “Government Expenditures, The Revenue Constraint, and Wagner’s Law The Case of Turkey”, Growth & Change, 5(2), pp. 13-19.
  • Loizides, J. ve Vamuoukos, G. (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8, pp. 125-152.
  • Musgrave, R.A. (1969), Fiscal System, Yale University Press, London.
  • Nadaroğlu, H. (1998), Kamu Maliyesi Teorisi, 10. Baskı, Beta Basım, İstanbul.
  • Önder, İ. (1974), Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Seyri: 1927-1967, İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları, No: 1925.
  • Tarı, R. (2005), Ekonometri, 3. Baskı, Alfa Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Taşseven, Ö. (2000), “The Wagner’s Law: Time Series Evidence for Turkey, 1960- 1998”, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, ODTÜ, Ankara.
  • Terzi, H. (1998), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 142, ss. 67- 78.
  • TÜİK (2006), İstatistik Göstergeler, 1923-2004, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/yillik/ Ist_gostergeler.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2006).
  • Toda, H.Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp. 225-250.
  • Yamak, N. ve Küçükkale, Y. (1997), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, İktisat İşletme Finans Dergisi, 12(131), ss. 5-14.
  • Yıldırım, Z.R. (1994), “Türkiye’de Gayrisafi Milli Hasıla ile Kamu Harcamaları Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi”, DEÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(1), ss. 25-40.
  • Yılmaz, Ö.G. (2005); “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Büyüme ile İşsizlik Oranları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi,” Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 2, ss. 11-29.
  • Zivot, E. ve Andrews, D.W.K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 10(3), pp. 251-270.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Muhlis Bağdigen This is me

Berna Beşer This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2009
Published in Issue Year 2009 Volume: 5 Issue: 9

Cite

APA Bağdigen, M., & Beşer, B. (2009). EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLE KAMU HARCAMALARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİNİN WAGNER TEZİ KAPSAMINDA BİR ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 5(9), 1-17.