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BOOTSTRAP VAR MODELLER VE TÜRKİYE’DE TANZİ ETKİSİ

Year 2007, Volume: 3 Issue: 6, 89 - 108, 01.12.2007

Mustafa Kemal Beşer

Abstract

Bu çalışma enflasyonun en önemli gelir eritici etkilerinden birisi olan Tanzi etkisinin Türkiye’de geçerli olup olmadığını vergi taksitlerinin reel vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkilerini ele alarak araştırmaktadır. Vergi toplamadaki ortalama gecikmelerin hesaplanabilmesi için yeterli yıllık veri olmadığı için bu alanda Türkiye üzerine ampirik çalışmalar çok fazla değildir. Bu problemin üstesinden küçük örneklem sapması düzeltilmiş bootstrap VAR tahmincileri kullanılarak gelinmiştir. Türkiye örneği için Tanzi 1977 ve Choudhry 1991 tarafından geliştirilen teorik yapıya odaklanılmaktadır. Bunun yanında tepki katsayıları için analitik yolla ve bootstrap metotları uygulanarak elde edilen güven aralıklarının performansları değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

Bootstrap Vektör otoregresyon Vergi Geliri Tanzi Etkisi

References

  • Aklan, N.A., (2001), “Para İkamesi ve Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 7(1).
  • Aron, H., (1966), “Inflation and Income Tax”, The American Economic Review, 66 (2), s. 193–199.
  • Basawa, I.V., Malik, A.K., McCormick, W.P., Reeves, J.H., Taylor, R.L. (1991), “Bootstrapping Unstable First Order Autoregressive Processes”, Annals of Statistics, 19(2), s. 1098-1101.
  • Beşer, M.K., (2006), “Zaman Serilerinde Bootstrap Çözümlemeleri ve Türkiye’de Tanzi Etkisine Uygulaması”, Marmara Üniversitesi SBE Doktora Tezi.
  • Carey, D., (1989), “Inflation and the Tax System”, Reserve Bank Bulletin, 52(1), s. 18-26.
  • Choudhry, N.N., (1990), “Fiscal Revenue and Inflationary Finance”, IMF Working Paper, WP/90/48.
  • Choudhry, N.N., (1991), “Collection Lags, Fiscal Revenue and Inflationary Financing: Empirical Evidence and Analysis”, IMF Working Paper, WP/91/4.
  • Choudhry, N.N., (1992), “Fiscal Revenue, Inflationary Finance and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/92/23.
  • Günaydın, İ., (2004), “Bütçe Açıkları Enflasyonist midir? Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 6 (1), s. 158–181.
  • Hamilton, J.D., (1994), “Time Series Analysis” Princeton University Press.
  • Inoue, A., Kilian, L., (2002), “Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 70 (1), s. 377-391.
  • Kilian, L., (1998), “Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions”, Review of Econ. and Stat., 80, s. 218-230.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., (1998), “Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VARs”, Journal of Econometrics, 83, s. 21-56.
  • Pope, A.L., (1990), “Biases of Estimators in Multivariate Non-Gaussian Autoregressions”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 11 (3), s. 249-258.
  • Rogers, J.H., Wang, P., (1993), “High Inflation: Causes and Consequences”, Economic Review, 4, 1993, s. 37-51.
  • Runkle, D.E., (1987), “Vector Autoregression and Reality”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, s. 437-447.
  • Sims, C., Stock, J., Watson, M.W., (1990), “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 58(1).
  • Soylu, H., (1997), Türkiye’de Senyoraj Gelirleri ve Kamu Açıkları, Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu, Yayın No.81.
  • Şen, H., (2003), “Olivera-Tanzi Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Maliye Dergisi, 143.
  • Tanzi, V., (1977), “Inflation, Lags in Collection, and the Real Value of Tax Revenue”, International Monetary Fund Staff P., 24 (1), s. 154–167.
  • Tanzi, V., (1978), “Inflation, Real Tax Revenue, and the Case for Inflationary Finance: Theory with an Application to Argentina”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 25 (3), s. 417–451.
  • Thuronyi, V., (1996), “Adjusting Taxes for Inflation, Tax Law Design and Drafting”, 1, International Monetary Fund.

BOOTSTRAP VAR MODELS AND EVIDENCE OF TANZI EFFECT IN TURKEY

Year 2007, Volume: 3 Issue: 6, 89 - 108, 01.12.2007

Mustafa Kemal Beşer

Abstract

This paper examines whether the Tanzi effect, one of the major revenueeroding effects of inflation, is valid for Turkish example or not by taking into account the effects of tax installments on real tax revenue. Empirical evidence and studies in this area are limited for Turkey because of the lack of annual data for average tax collection lags. We try to eliminate this problem by using small sample bias corrected bootstrap VAR estimators and we focus on the theoretical frame developed by Tanzi 1977 and Choudhry 1991 for the Turkish case. In addition to this, we compare the performances of confidence intervals for response coefficients obtained analytically and bootstrap methods

Keywords

Bootstrap Vector autoregression Tax Revenue Tanzi Effect

References

  • Aklan, N.A., (2001), “Para İkamesi ve Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 7(1).
  • Aron, H., (1966), “Inflation and Income Tax”, The American Economic Review, 66 (2), s. 193–199.
  • Basawa, I.V., Malik, A.K., McCormick, W.P., Reeves, J.H., Taylor, R.L. (1991), “Bootstrapping Unstable First Order Autoregressive Processes”, Annals of Statistics, 19(2), s. 1098-1101.
  • Beşer, M.K., (2006), “Zaman Serilerinde Bootstrap Çözümlemeleri ve Türkiye’de Tanzi Etkisine Uygulaması”, Marmara Üniversitesi SBE Doktora Tezi.
  • Carey, D., (1989), “Inflation and the Tax System”, Reserve Bank Bulletin, 52(1), s. 18-26.
  • Choudhry, N.N., (1990), “Fiscal Revenue and Inflationary Finance”, IMF Working Paper, WP/90/48.
  • Choudhry, N.N., (1991), “Collection Lags, Fiscal Revenue and Inflationary Financing: Empirical Evidence and Analysis”, IMF Working Paper, WP/91/4.
  • Choudhry, N.N., (1992), “Fiscal Revenue, Inflationary Finance and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/92/23.
  • Günaydın, İ., (2004), “Bütçe Açıkları Enflasyonist midir? Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 6 (1), s. 158–181.
  • Hamilton, J.D., (1994), “Time Series Analysis” Princeton University Press.
  • Inoue, A., Kilian, L., (2002), “Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 70 (1), s. 377-391.
  • Kilian, L., (1998), “Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions”, Review of Econ. and Stat., 80, s. 218-230.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., (1998), “Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VARs”, Journal of Econometrics, 83, s. 21-56.
  • Pope, A.L., (1990), “Biases of Estimators in Multivariate Non-Gaussian Autoregressions”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 11 (3), s. 249-258.
  • Rogers, J.H., Wang, P., (1993), “High Inflation: Causes and Consequences”, Economic Review, 4, 1993, s. 37-51.
  • Runkle, D.E., (1987), “Vector Autoregression and Reality”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, s. 437-447.
  • Sims, C., Stock, J., Watson, M.W., (1990), “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 58(1).
  • Soylu, H., (1997), Türkiye’de Senyoraj Gelirleri ve Kamu Açıkları, Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu, Yayın No.81.
  • Şen, H., (2003), “Olivera-Tanzi Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Maliye Dergisi, 143.
  • Tanzi, V., (1977), “Inflation, Lags in Collection, and the Real Value of Tax Revenue”, International Monetary Fund Staff P., 24 (1), s. 154–167.
  • Tanzi, V., (1978), “Inflation, Real Tax Revenue, and the Case for Inflationary Finance: Theory with an Application to Argentina”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 25 (3), s. 417–451.
  • Thuronyi, V., (1996), “Adjusting Taxes for Inflation, Tax Law Design and Drafting”, 1, International Monetary Fund.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mustafa Kemal Beşer This is me

Publication Date December 1, 2007
Published in Issue Year 2007 Volume: 3 Issue: 6

Cite

APA Beşer, M. K. (2007). BOOTSTRAP VAR MODELLER VE TÜRKİYE’DE TANZİ ETKİSİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 3(6), 89-108.