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KAMU HARCAMALARI EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İÇİN DESTEK Mİ? ENGEL Mİ? G7 ÜLKELERİNDE ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Year 2020, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 267 - 283, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.756875

Abstract

Kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel bağıntının gerek yönü gerekse
büyüklüğü konusunda birbirinden oldukça farklı görüşler bulunmaktadır. Klasik iktisada göre genişletici
maliye politikaları ekonomik büyümeyi negatif yönde etkilemekte, ancak Keynesyen iktisat kamu
harcamalarının çarpan mekanizması ile geliri artıracağını benimsemektedir. Diğer taraftan Ricardocu
Eşdeğerlik Hipotezi, kamu harcamalarındaki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi etkilemeyeceğini ileri
sürmektedir. Wagner Hipotezinde ise ekonomik büyümeden kamu harcamalarına doğru bir ilişki olduğu
varsayılmaktadır. Söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki bağıntı, özellikle uygulanacak makroekonomik
politikaların belirlenmesi bakımından çok fazla önem taşır. Bu çalışma kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik
büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini 1950-2011 dönemine ait verilerden hareketle G7 ülkeleri için
Hatemi-J (2011; 2012) asimetrik nedensellik testi ile sınamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; Almanya,
Birleşik Krallık, İtalya, Japonya ve Kanada’da kamu kesimi büyüklüğünden ekonomik büyümeye doğru;
ABD ve Japonya’da büyümeden kamu kesimi büyüklüğüne doğru bir nedensel ilişki bulunmaktadır.
Fransa’da ise değişkenler arasında bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

References

  • Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qam, A. S. (2003). Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: Causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 567- 583.
  • Afonso, A., & Jalles, J. T. (2014). Causality for the government budget and economic growth. Management Working Papers, Lisboa School of Economics, ISSN 2183-1815.
  • Afzal, M. (2012). Ricardian equivalence hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan. E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics, 3(6), 258-265.
  • Ahmad, N. (2013). The role of budget deficit in the economic growth of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research Economics and Commerce, 13(5), 1-4.
  • Al-Fawwaz, T. M., & Al-Sawai’e, K. M. (2013). The relationship between gross domestic product and government expenditures in Jordan: A war approach. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 4(9), 336-344.
  • Attari, M. I. J., & Javed, A. Y. (2013). Inflation, economic growth and government expenditure of Pakistan: 1980-2010. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 58-67.
  • Barry, F., & Devereux, M. (1992). Crowding out effects of government spending. The Economic and Social Review, 23(3), 199-221.
  • Bayrakdar, S., Demez, S., & Yapar, M. (2015). Testing the validity of Wagner’s law: 1998-2004, the case of Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 493-500.
  • Boughton, J. M. (2002). Globalization and the silent revolution of the 1980s. Finance & Development, 39(1).
  • Breusch, T. H., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Dollery, B., & Singh, S. (1998). A note on the empirical analysis of Wagner’s law. Economic Analysis and Policy, 28(2), 245-257.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2017). Ricardo-Barro hipotezine karşı arz yönlü ekonomi yaklaşımı. Erişim Tarihi: 27.09.2018, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/12/ricardo-barro-hipotezine-kars-arz-yonlu. html
  • Eker, A., Altay, A., & Sakal, M. (1997). Maliye politikası (teori, ilkeler ve yöntemler). İzmir: Anadolu Matbaası.
  • Erim, N. (2007). İktisadi düşünce tarihi. Ankara: Palme Yayıncılık.
  • Gangal, V. L. N., & Gupta, M. H. (2013). Public expenditure and economic growth: A case study of India.
  • Global Journal of Management and Business Studies, 3(2), 191-196.
  • Guerrien, B. (1999). Neo-klasik iktisat. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011). Asymmetric panel causality tests with an application to the impact of fiscal policy on economic performance in Scandinavia. MPRA Paper 55527.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Ajmi, A. N., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2015). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing. Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Chang, T., Chen, W., Lin, F., & Gupta, R. (2015). Asymmetric Granger causality between military expenditures and economic growth in top six defence suppliers. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, University of Pretoria, 2015-65.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Chuan Lee, C., Chen Lee, C., & Gupta, R. (2018). Insurance activity and economic performance: fresh evidence from asymmetric panel causality tests. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, University of Pretoria, 2018-28.
  • Hatemi-J, A., & El-Khatib, Y. (2016). An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components. Applied Economics, 48(42), 4033-4041.
  • Ioan, G. (2012). Theoretical models of economic recovery in recession and depression phases. The 7th edition of the International Conference European Integration Realities and Perspectives, 636-641. Jiranyakul, K. (2007). The relation between government expenditures and economic growth in Thailand. MPRA Paper 46070.
  • Kirmanoğlu, H. (2007). Kamu ekonomisi analizi. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012). Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 890-905.
  • Narayan, P. K., Nielsen, I., & Smyth, R. (2008). Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law: Empirical evidence from chinese provinces. China Economic Review, 19, 297-307.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Erciyes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39, 6615-6621.
  • Olayungbo, D. O., & Olayemi, O. F. (2018). Dynamic relationships among non-oil revenue, government spending and economic growth in an oil producing country: Evidence from Nigeria. Future Business Journal, 4, 246-260.
  • Onwioduokit, E. A., & Uduakobong, S. I. (2018). Budget deficit and economic growth in Liberia: An empirical ınvestigation. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 3(6), 68-78.
  • Oskooee, M. B., Chang, T., & Ranjbar, O. (2016). Asymmetric causality using frequency domain and time-frequency domain (wavelet) approaches. Economic Modelling, 55, 66-78.
  • Paolo, M., Romeu, R., Binder, A., & Zaman, A. (2013). A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy. IMF Working Paper, 13(5).
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
  • Pesaran, H. M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
  • Pula, L., & Elshani, A. (2017). The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kosovo: Findings from a johansen co-integrated test and a granger causality test. Ekonomika, 97(1), 47-62.
  • Rahim, H. L., Abidin, Z. Z., Ping, S. D. S., Alias, M. K., & Muhamad, I. (2014). Globalization and its effect on world poverty and inequality. Global Journal of Management and Business, 1(2), 9-13.
  • Šimurina, J., & Tolić, I. (2008). Dynamics of the technology progress in economic development. Economic Research, 21(3), 12-24.
  • Snowdon, B., & Howard, R. V. (2012). Modern makroekonomi temelleri, gelişimi ve bugünü. Ankara: Efil Yayıncılık.
  • Suntum, U. V. (2005). The invisible hand economic thought yesterday and today. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2018). Kamu kesimi büyüklüğü, dış şoklar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Seçilmiş OECD ülkeleri üzerine ekonometrik bir çalışma. Bankacılık Dergisi, 105, 27-46.
  • Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ., & Keskin, A. (2007). Bütçe açıkları ve açık finansman politikası teori ve Türkiye uygulaması. Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
  • Tubaro, P. (2010). History of economic thought. In Rhona C. Free (Ed.), 21st century economics: A reference handbook (1st ed., pp. 3-11).
  • Ulusoy, A. (2004). Maliye politikası. Trabzon: Celepler Matbaacılık.
  • Uzoma-Nwosu, D. C. (2018). The causality between economic growth and government expenditure in Nigeria. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness, 4(4), 5-21.
  • Wu, S., Tang, J., & Lin, E. S. (2010). The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: how sensitive to the level of development?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 804-817.
Year 2020, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 267 - 283, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.756875

Abstract

References

  • Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qam, A. S. (2003). Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: Causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 567- 583.
  • Afonso, A., & Jalles, J. T. (2014). Causality for the government budget and economic growth. Management Working Papers, Lisboa School of Economics, ISSN 2183-1815.
  • Afzal, M. (2012). Ricardian equivalence hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan. E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics, 3(6), 258-265.
  • Ahmad, N. (2013). The role of budget deficit in the economic growth of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research Economics and Commerce, 13(5), 1-4.
  • Al-Fawwaz, T. M., & Al-Sawai’e, K. M. (2013). The relationship between gross domestic product and government expenditures in Jordan: A war approach. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 4(9), 336-344.
  • Attari, M. I. J., & Javed, A. Y. (2013). Inflation, economic growth and government expenditure of Pakistan: 1980-2010. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 58-67.
  • Barry, F., & Devereux, M. (1992). Crowding out effects of government spending. The Economic and Social Review, 23(3), 199-221.
  • Bayrakdar, S., Demez, S., & Yapar, M. (2015). Testing the validity of Wagner’s law: 1998-2004, the case of Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 493-500.
  • Boughton, J. M. (2002). Globalization and the silent revolution of the 1980s. Finance & Development, 39(1).
  • Breusch, T. H., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Dollery, B., & Singh, S. (1998). A note on the empirical analysis of Wagner’s law. Economic Analysis and Policy, 28(2), 245-257.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2017). Ricardo-Barro hipotezine karşı arz yönlü ekonomi yaklaşımı. Erişim Tarihi: 27.09.2018, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/12/ricardo-barro-hipotezine-kars-arz-yonlu. html
  • Eker, A., Altay, A., & Sakal, M. (1997). Maliye politikası (teori, ilkeler ve yöntemler). İzmir: Anadolu Matbaası.
  • Erim, N. (2007). İktisadi düşünce tarihi. Ankara: Palme Yayıncılık.
  • Gangal, V. L. N., & Gupta, M. H. (2013). Public expenditure and economic growth: A case study of India.
  • Global Journal of Management and Business Studies, 3(2), 191-196.
  • Guerrien, B. (1999). Neo-klasik iktisat. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011). Asymmetric panel causality tests with an application to the impact of fiscal policy on economic performance in Scandinavia. MPRA Paper 55527.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Ajmi, A. N., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2015). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing. Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Chang, T., Chen, W., Lin, F., & Gupta, R. (2015). Asymmetric Granger causality between military expenditures and economic growth in top six defence suppliers. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, University of Pretoria, 2015-65.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Chuan Lee, C., Chen Lee, C., & Gupta, R. (2018). Insurance activity and economic performance: fresh evidence from asymmetric panel causality tests. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, University of Pretoria, 2018-28.
  • Hatemi-J, A., & El-Khatib, Y. (2016). An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components. Applied Economics, 48(42), 4033-4041.
  • Ioan, G. (2012). Theoretical models of economic recovery in recession and depression phases. The 7th edition of the International Conference European Integration Realities and Perspectives, 636-641. Jiranyakul, K. (2007). The relation between government expenditures and economic growth in Thailand. MPRA Paper 46070.
  • Kirmanoğlu, H. (2007). Kamu ekonomisi analizi. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012). Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 890-905.
  • Narayan, P. K., Nielsen, I., & Smyth, R. (2008). Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law: Empirical evidence from chinese provinces. China Economic Review, 19, 297-307.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Erciyes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39, 6615-6621.
  • Olayungbo, D. O., & Olayemi, O. F. (2018). Dynamic relationships among non-oil revenue, government spending and economic growth in an oil producing country: Evidence from Nigeria. Future Business Journal, 4, 246-260.
  • Onwioduokit, E. A., & Uduakobong, S. I. (2018). Budget deficit and economic growth in Liberia: An empirical ınvestigation. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 3(6), 68-78.
  • Oskooee, M. B., Chang, T., & Ranjbar, O. (2016). Asymmetric causality using frequency domain and time-frequency domain (wavelet) approaches. Economic Modelling, 55, 66-78.
  • Paolo, M., Romeu, R., Binder, A., & Zaman, A. (2013). A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy. IMF Working Paper, 13(5).
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
  • Pesaran, H. M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
  • Pula, L., & Elshani, A. (2017). The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kosovo: Findings from a johansen co-integrated test and a granger causality test. Ekonomika, 97(1), 47-62.
  • Rahim, H. L., Abidin, Z. Z., Ping, S. D. S., Alias, M. K., & Muhamad, I. (2014). Globalization and its effect on world poverty and inequality. Global Journal of Management and Business, 1(2), 9-13.
  • Šimurina, J., & Tolić, I. (2008). Dynamics of the technology progress in economic development. Economic Research, 21(3), 12-24.
  • Snowdon, B., & Howard, R. V. (2012). Modern makroekonomi temelleri, gelişimi ve bugünü. Ankara: Efil Yayıncılık.
  • Suntum, U. V. (2005). The invisible hand economic thought yesterday and today. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2018). Kamu kesimi büyüklüğü, dış şoklar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Seçilmiş OECD ülkeleri üzerine ekonometrik bir çalışma. Bankacılık Dergisi, 105, 27-46.
  • Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ., & Keskin, A. (2007). Bütçe açıkları ve açık finansman politikası teori ve Türkiye uygulaması. Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
  • Tubaro, P. (2010). History of economic thought. In Rhona C. Free (Ed.), 21st century economics: A reference handbook (1st ed., pp. 3-11).
  • Ulusoy, A. (2004). Maliye politikası. Trabzon: Celepler Matbaacılık.
  • Uzoma-Nwosu, D. C. (2018). The causality between economic growth and government expenditure in Nigeria. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness, 4(4), 5-21.
  • Wu, S., Tang, J., & Lin, E. S. (2010). The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: how sensitive to the level of development?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 804-817.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

İbrahim Özmen This is me 0000-0003-2632-4217

Mustafa Gerçeker This is me 0000-0002-2920-255X

Mehmet Mucuk This is me 0000-0002-4341-5236

Publication Date June 30, 2020
Submission Date February 15, 2019
Acceptance Date March 3, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 16 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Özmen, İ., Gerçeker, M., & Mucuk, M. (2020). KAMU HARCAMALARI EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İÇİN DESTEK Mİ? ENGEL Mİ? G7 ÜLKELERİNDE ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK TESTİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 16(2), 267-283. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.756875