Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları, Silah İthalatı ve Dış Borçlar Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Borç ve açıklar bir ekonomi için önemlidir ve açık harcama politikası ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkiler. Fakat, aynı zamanda dış borç çok artarsa ekonomik problemlere de yol açabilir. Borçların belirleyenlerine yönelik çalışmalarda, borç oluşumuna önemli katkı sağlayan savunma harcamalarına görece olarak daha az önem atfedilmiştir. Türkiye son yıllarda savunma harcamaları ve silah ithalatına daha fazla kaynak ayıran bir ülkedir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye’nin dış borçlarının artışında savunma harcamaları ve silah ithalatının ne derece etkili olduğu tartışılan bir konu olmaktadır. Bu konuya açıklık getirmek amacıyla, Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları, silah ithalatı ve dış borçlar arasındaki ilişki 1975-2017 dönemi için yıllık verilerle ARDL sınır testi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Bulgular uzun ve kısa dönemde savunma harcamaları ve silah ithalatı ile dış borçlar arasında pozitif yönlü ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Savunma Harcamaları
• Silah İthalatı
• Dış Borç

The Analysis of the Relationship Between Defence Spending, Arms Import and External Debt in Turkey: ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Abstract

Debt and deficits are important for an economy, and deficit spending policy positively affects economic growth. However, if external debt increases too much, it may also lead to economic problems. In the literature that was given relatively little information to defence spending contributing substantially to government debt level in the studies focused on the determinants of debt. Turkey is a country allocating more funds to its defence spending and arms import in recent years. Therefore, to what extent its defence expenditures and arms import is effective in increased debt stock is a subject of debate. To conclude this issue, this study examines the relationship between defence spending, arms import, and external debts through ARDL bund test with annual data for the 1975-2017 period. The findings show that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between defence expenditures and arms import and foreign debt in the short and long term.

Keywords

• Defence Expenditure
• Arms Import
• External Debt

References

1. Abbas, S. & Wizarat, S. (2018). “Military Expenditure and External Debt in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 24(3), 1-7.
2. Adıyaman, A. T. (2006). “Dış Borçlarımız ve Ekonomik Etkileri”, Sayıştay Dergisi, 62, 21-45.
3. Ahmed, A. D. (2012). “Debt Burden, Military Spending And Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), 485-506.
4. Alexander, W.R.J. (2013). “The Defence-Debt Nexus: Evidence From the High-Income Members of NATO”, Defence and Peace Economics, 24(2), 133-145.
5. Anfofum A. A., Andow, H.A. & Mohammed, A.N. (2014). “Military Spending and External Debt Burden in Nigeria”, International Journal of Education and Research, 2(7), 611-626.
6. Azam, M. & Feng, Y. (2017). “Does Military Expenditure Increase External Debt? Evidence From Asia”, Defence and Peace Economics, 28(5), 550-567.
7. Barış, S. (2018). “Are Defence Expenditures the Reasons of Foreign Debts in Turkey?”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 25(2), 205-220.
8. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J.M. (1975). “Techniques for Testing the Consistency of Regression Relations over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-192.

9. Brzoska, M. (1983). “The Military Related External Debt of Third World Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 20(3), 271–277.
10. Brzoska, M. (2004). “The Economics of Arms Imports After the End of the Cold War”, Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 111-123.
11. Çolak, O. & M. Özkaya, M.H. (2020). “The Nexus between External Debts and Military Expenditures for the Selected Transition Economies: A Panel Threshold Regression Approach”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1-17. Doi: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1736779
12. Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statisitics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
13. Dunne, J.P., Eftychia Nikolaidou, E.& Chiminya, A. (2019). “Military Spending, Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Defence and Peace Economics, 30(4), 462-473.
14. Dunne, J.P., Perlo-Freeman, S. & Soydan, A. (2004a). “Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 125-132.
15. Dunne, J.P., Perlo-Freeman, S. & Soydan, A. (2004b). “Military Expenditure and Debt in South America”, Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 173-187.
16. Feridun, M. (2005). “An Econometric Analysis of the Military Expenditure and External Debt in Argentina”, Economia Internazionale/International Economics, 58(4), 391-403.
17. Günlük-Şenesen, G. & Sezgin, S (2002). “Turkey’s Defence Expenditures and Debt Burden”, Paper presented at the 6th Middlesex Conference on Economics and Security, June 2002, London.
18. Günlük-Şenesen, G. (2004). “The Role of Defence on External Indebtedness: An Assessment of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 145-156.
19. Işık, N. & Kılınç, E. C. (2015). “Savunma Harcamaları Dış Borçları Arttırır mı?”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 26(97), 23-44.
20. İpek, E. & Esener, Ç. S. (2014). “Borçlanmayı Savunmak: Dış Borcun Bir Belirleyicisi Olarak Savunma Harcamaları”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(3), 69- 94.
21. Karagöl, E. (2005. “Defence Expenditures and External Debt in Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(2), 117-125.
22. Karagöl, E. (2006). “The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures and GNP Revisited: The Case of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 17(1), 47–57.
23. Karagöz, K. (2018). Impact of Defence Expenditures on External Debt: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey and Turkic Republics”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 25(1), 183-192.
24. Karakurt, B., Şentürk, S.H. & Şahingöz B. (2018). “Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 175, 154-170.
25. Keyifli, N. & Akdede, S. H. (2017). “Devletin Hacmini Belirleyen Faktörler: Ampirik Bir Analiz Determinants of Government Size: An Empirical Analysis”, International Journal of Public Finance, 2(1), 81-92.
26. Keyifli, N. & S.H. Akdede (2020). “Politik Kutuplaşma ve Devletin Ekonomik Boyutu”, Sosyoekonomi, 28(44), 319-335.
27. Khan, L., Arif, I., Waqar, S. (2020), “The Impact of Military Expenditure on External Debt: The Case of 35 Importing Countries”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1-12.
28. Kollias, C., Manolas, G. & Paleogouc, Suzanna-Maria (2004). “Military Expenditure and Government Debt in Greece: Some Preliminary Empirical Findings”, Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 189-197. Published online: 29 Jul 2006.
29. Looney, R. E. (1987). “Impact of Military Expenditures on Third World Debt”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 8(1), 7-26.
30. Looney, R. E. (1989). “The Influence of Arms Imports on Third World Debt”, Journal of Developing Areas, 23(2), 221–231.
31. Looney, R. Ε. & Frederiksen, P.C. (1986), Defense Expenditures, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 23(4), 329-337.
32. Narayan, P.K. & Narayan, S. (2008). “Does Military Expenditure Expenditure Determine Fiji's Exploding Debt Levels?”, Defence and Peace Economics, 19(1), 77-87.
33. Nikolaidou E.(2016) “The Role of Military Expenditure and Arms Imports in The Greek Debt Crisis”, The Economics Peace and Security Journal, 11(1), 18-27.
34. O'Driscoll, Jr. G.P. (1976). “The Ricardian Nonequivalence Theorem”, Iowa State University Economic Staff Paper Series, 36, 1-8.
35. O'Driscoll, Jr. G.P. (1977). “The Ricardian Nonequivalence Theorem”, Journal of Political Economy, 85 (1), 207-210.
36. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 2001, 289–326.
37. Phillips, P. C. & Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
38. Posner, R.A. (1971). “Taxation by Regulation”, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 2(1), 22-50.
39. Sezgin, S. (2004). “An Empirical Note on External Debt and Defence Expenditures in Turkey", Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 199-203.
40. Sezgin, Ş., & Sezgin, S. (2018). “Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de Savunma Sanayi: Genel Bir Bakış”, Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(12), 1-19.
41. Shahbaz, M., Shabbir, M. S. & Butt, M.S. (2016). “Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?”, Defence and Peace Economics, 27(5), 718-741.
42. Sheikh, M.R., Chaudhry, S. & Faridi, M. (2013). “Defense Expenditures and External Debt: Evidence from Pakistan and India”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 51 (2), 159-177.
43. SIPRI. (2019). SIPRI Yearbook 2019, https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2019 Snider, L. W. (1990). “The Political Dimensions of Military Spending and Debt Service in Southeast Asia”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Volume 11 (4), pp.278-305.
44. Strauphaar, T. (1986). “The Economics of Thirt World Arms Imports”, Intereconomics, 137-141.
45. Symth, R. & Narayan, P.K. (2009). “A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence Six Middle Eastern Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 46(2), 235-250.
46. T.C. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı (2019). Merkezi Yönetim Borç İstatistikleri-Merkezi Yönetim Dış Borç Stoku, https://www.hmb.gov.tr/kamu-finansmani-istatistikleri
47. Topal, M.H. (2018), “Türkiye’de Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)”, Maliye Dergisi, 174, 175-202.
48. Ulusoy, A. (2018). Devlet Borçlanması, 11. Baskı, Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
49. Wolde‐Rufael, Y. (2009). “The Defence Spending–External Debt Nexus in Ethiopia”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(5), 423-436.
50. Zaman, K., Mahmoo, S., Mushtaq, K., Rashid, A., & Ahmad, M. (2012). “An Empirical Investigation of External Debt-Military Expenditure Nexus in Bangladesh”, Economia: Seria Management, 15(1), 173-188.