Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları, Silah İthalatı ve Dış Borçlar Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Borç ve açıklar bir ekonomi için önemlidir ve açık harcama politikası ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkiler. Fakat, aynı zamanda dış borç çok artarsa ekonomik problemlere de yol açabilir. Borçların belirleyenlerine yönelik çalışmalarda, borç oluşumuna önemli katkı sağlayan savunma harcamalarına görece olarak daha az önem atfedilmiştir. Türkiye son yıllarda savunma harcamaları ve silah ithalatına daha fazla kaynak ayıran bir ülkedir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye’nin dış borçlarının artışında savunma harcamaları ve silah ithalatının ne derece etkili olduğu tartışılan bir konu olmaktadır. Bu konuya açıklık getirmek amacıyla, Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları, silah ithalatı ve dış borçlar arasındaki ilişki 1975-2017 dönemi için yıllık verilerle ARDL sınır testi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Bulgular uzun ve kısa dönemde savunma harcamaları ve silah ithalatı ile dış borçlar arasında pozitif yönlü ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savunma Harcamaları
• Silah İthalatı
• Dış Borç

The Analysis of the Relationship Between Defence Spending, Arms Import and External Debt in Turkey: ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Öz

Debt and deficits are important for an economy, and deficit spending policy positively affects economic growth. However, if external debt increases too much, it may also lead to economic problems. In the literature that was given relatively little information to defence spending contributing substantially to government debt level in the studies focused on the determinants of debt. Turkey is a country allocating more funds to its defence spending and arms import in recent years. Therefore, to what extent its defence expenditures and arms import is effective in increased debt stock is a subject of debate. To conclude this issue, this study examines the relationship between defence spending, arms import, and external debts through ARDL bund test with annual data for the 1975-2017 period. The findings show that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between defence expenditures and arms import and foreign debt in the short and long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Defence Expenditure
• Arms Import
• External Debt

Kaynakça

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