Examination of Intelligence Cycles within the Frame of SWOT Analysis

Abstract

In intelligence studies, the concept of the intelligence cycle often comes across. This concept which can be traced back to Clausewitz, actually defines the analysis process. Intelligence cycle generally criticized as; it is not beyond being theoretical, does not reflect the truth and is most likely used as a marketing tool. In addition to these criticisms, different or deficient aspects of each of the critics also subject to the criticism. Due to reasons arising from the criticism, developing and changing conditions, alternative versions of intelligence cycle transpired. In this study, fourteen different models used in intelligence studies, including linear and matrix-type analysis methods, which considered as alternative to the basic circular cycle structure, are discussed. In this framework, these cycle suggestions that either compliment or substitute each other are examined through SWOT analysis. With this analysis; their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and risks to the users irradiated. Although there is no doubt that the future analysis will be based on technology such as artificial intelligence, it has been tried to shed light on the analysis methods to be created with this study and the differences between the existing analysis systems.

Keywords

• Keywords: Intelligence
• Intelligence Cycle
• SWOT Analysis
• Discussions on Intelligence Cycle
• Re-Evaluation of Intelligence Cycles

İstihbarat Çarklarının SWOT Analizi Çerçevesinde İncelenmesi

Abstract

İstihbarat çalışmalarında sıklıkla karşımıza istihbarat çarkı kavramı gelmektedir. Geçmişi Clausewitz’e kadar götürülebilen bu kavram aslında analiz sürecini tanımlamaktadır. İstihbarat çarkı genel olarak; teorik olmasından öteye gitmediği, gerçeği yansıtmadığı ve daha çok pazarlama aracı olarak kullanıldığı şeklinde eleştirilmektedir. Bu eleştirilerin yanında her birinin diğerine göre farklı veya eksik yönleri eleştiri konusu olmaktadır. Gerek eleştirilerden kaynaklanan sebeplerle gerekse gelişen ve değişen şartlar geleneksel istihbarat çarkının da eleştirilmesine ve alternatif çarkların önerilmesine neden olmuştur. Temelde döngüsel olan bu çark yapısına alternatif lineer ve matris tipi analiz yöntemleri de dahil olmak üzere bu çalışmamızda istihbarat çalışmalarında kullanılan farklı 14 model ele alınmıştır. Bu çerçevede birbirini tamamlayan veya ikame eden bu çark önerileri SWOT analizi ile incelenerek birbirine göre göre güçlü, zayıf yanları ile kullanıcılara sundukları fırsatlar ve ortaya koydukları risk ve tehlikeler bağlamında incelenmiştir. Geleceğin analizlerinin yapay zekâ gibi teknolojiye bağlı analizler olacağı konusunda şüphe olmamakla birlikte bu çalışma ile oluşturulacak analiz yöntemlerine geçmiş ve mevcut analiz sistemleri arasındaki farklar üzerinden ışık tutulmaya çalışılmıştır.

Keywords

• İstihbarat
• İstihbarat Çarkı
• SWOT Analizi
• İstihbarat Çarkı Tartışmaları
• İstihbarat Çarklarının Değerlendirilmesi

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