The Environmental Consequences of Turkiye’s Industrial Development and Foreign Trade Strategies

Year 2025, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 184 - 204, 30.06.2025

Hasan Umutlu , Hasan Harmancı

https://doi.org/10.54282/inijoss.1655257

Abstract

Turkiye’s industrialization and foreign trade strategies have contributed significantly to economic growth but also led to environmental concerns due to rising carbon emissions. As a country heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports to meet its energy needs, Turkiye faces growing challenges in aligning its industrial development with environmental responsibilities. Especially under the increasing influence of international environmental regulations and carbon adjustment mechanisms, there is a pressing need to re-evaluate its current production structure. In this context, examining the relationship between industrial activity, trade flows, and carbon emissions becomes increasingly important. This study investigates the causal relationships between industrial output, exports, imports, and carbon emissions in Turkiye using time series data from 1989 to 2022. The empirical analysis employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Granger causality testing. The results reveal that imports significantly influence both industrial production and exports, while exports also affect industrial activity. However, carbon emissions are not found to have a direct causal impact on trade or industrial output within the studied period. These findings suggest that carbon emissions have not yet emerged as a binding constraint on Turkiye’s production structure. Nonetheless, increasing investments in renewable energy is essential for ensuring energy security, environmental compliance, and long-term competitiveness. The study offers policy implications for developing countries with similar economic structures and provides both theoretical and practical contributions to the formulation of environmentally sustainable industrial strategies.

Keywords

Industrial Development, Foreign Trade, Export, Import, Carbon Emissions

Türkiye’nin Sanayileşme ve Dış Ticaret Stratejilerinin Çevresel Sonuçları

Abstract

Türkiye’nin sanayileşme ve dış ticaret stratejileri ekonomik büyümeye önemli katkılar sağlamış, ancak artan karbon emisyonları nedeniyle çevresel sorunları da beraberinde getirmiştir. Enerji ihtiyacının büyük bir kısmını fosil yakıt ithalatıyla karşılayan Türkiye, sanayileşme sürecini çevresel sorumluluklarla uyumlu hâle getirme konusunda giderek artan bir baskı altındadır. Özellikle uluslararası çevre düzenlemeleri ve karbon uyum mekanizmalarının etkisiyle mevcut üretim yapısının yeniden değerlendirilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çerçevede, sanayi faaliyetleri, dış ticaret akımları ve karbon emisyonları arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma, 1989–2022 dönemine ait zaman serisi verileri kullanarak Türkiye’de sanayi üretimi, ihracat, ithalat ve karbon emisyonları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmektedir. Ampirik analizde Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) modeli ve Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, ithalatın hem sanayi üretimi hem de ihracat üzerinde etkili olduğunu, ihracatın ise sanayiyle ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak çalışılan dönemde karbon emisyonlarının sanayi ya da dış ticaret üzerinde doğrudan nedensel bir etkisi tespit edilmemiştir. Bu sonuçlar, karbon emisyonlarının henüz Türkiye’nin üretim yapısı üzerinde sınırlayıcı bir faktör haline gelmediğini göstermektedir. Buna rağmen, enerji güvenliği, çevresel uyum ve uzun vadeli rekabet gücü açısından yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının artırılması kritik önemdedir. Çalışma, benzer ekonomik yapıya sahip gelişmekte olan ülkeler için politika geliştirmeye yönelik çıkarımlar sunmakta; ayrıca çevresel sürdürülebilirliği gözeten sanayi stratejilerinin oluşturulmasına teorik ve uygulamalı katkılar sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

Endüstriyel Kalkınma, Dış Ticaret, İhracat, İthalat, Karbon Emisyonları

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