Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği

Yadigar Leyla Doğan

doi:10.46876/ja.2000519

TR EN

Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği

Abstract

Kesme çiçekler, Türkiye’de süs bitkileri sektörü içerisinde üretim hacmi, ihracat potansiyeli ve ekonomik değeri bakımından önemli bir ürün grubunu oluşturmaktadır. Üretimde geçmiş yıllarda meydana gelen değişimlerin incelenmesi ve gelecekteki olası yönelimlerin belirlenmesi, üretim planlaması ve sektörel karar süreçleri açısından önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik öneme sahip kesme çiçek türlerinden karanfil, gerbera ve gülün 2011–2025 dönemindeki üretim değişimlerinin incelenmesi ve 2026–2040 dönemine ilişkin üretim projeksiyonlarının oluşturulması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmanın temel materyalini Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu tarafından yayımlanan yıllık üretim verileri oluşturmuştur. Türlerin ardışık yıllara ait üretim miktarları kullanılarak yıllık değişim oranları hesaplanmış ve bu oranların aritmetik ortalaması projeksiyon katsayısı olarak kabul edilmiştir. Ortalama yıllık projeksiyon katsayısı karanfilde %3.66, gerberada −%0.37 ve gülde %1.19 olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu katsayıların 2025 yılı üretim miktarlarına bileşik olarak uygulanması sonucunda, 2040 yılında karanfil üretiminin 1 419 190 389, gerbera üretiminin 98 702 240 ve gül üretiminin 136 649 567 adede ulaşacağı tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, mevcut eğilimlerin sürmesi durumunda karanfil üretiminde belirgin, gül üretiminde ise daha sınırlı bir artış gerçekleşebileceğini; gerbera üretiminde durağanlığa yakın, kademeli bir azalış görülebileceğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte projeksiyonlar geçmiş üretim eğilimlerinin gelecekte de devam edeceği varsayımına dayandığından, sonuçlar kesin üretim değerleri yerine olası üretim yönleri olarak değerlendirilmelidir. Çalışmanın, tür bazında üretim planlamasına ve Türkiye kesme çiçek sektörüne yönelik stratejik değerlendirmelere veri temelli katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Production Projections for Some Economically Important Cut Flower Species in Türkiye: Carnation, Gerbera, and Rose

Abstract

Cut flowers constitute an important product group within the ornamental plant sector in Türkiye in terms of production volume, export potential, and economic value. Examining historical changes in production and identifying future trends are essential for production planning and sectoral decision-making. This study aimed to analyze the production dynamics of three economically important cut flower species in Türkiye—carnation, gerbera, and rose—during the 2011–2025 period and to develop production projections for 2026–2040. The study was based on annual production data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Annual production change rates were calculated for each species using consecutive yearly production data, and the arithmetic mean of these rates was adopted as the projection coefficient. The mean annual projection coefficients were calculated as 3.66% for carnation, −0.37% for gerbera, and 1.19% for rose. By applying these coefficients cumulatively to the 2025 production values, production in 2040 was projected to reach 1,419,190,389 stems for carnation, 98,702,240 stems for gerbera, and 136,649,567 stems for rose. The findings indicate that, if current trends continue, carnation production is likely to show a substantial increase, while rose production is expected to exhibit a more moderate upward trend. In contrast, gerbera production is projected to experience a gradual decline close to a stable level. Since the projections are based on the assumption that historical production trends will continue into the future, the estimated values should be interpreted as possible production trends rather than precise forecasts. The findings of this study are expected to provide a data-driven basis for species-specific production planning and strategic assessments of the Turkish cut flower sector.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

This study used publicly available secondary data. Ethics committee approval was not required because the study did not involve human participants, personal data, or animal experimentation.

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Horticultural Production (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yadigar Leyla Doğan ^*
0000-0002-7404-5653
Türkiye

Publication Date

August 13, 2026

Submission Date

July 21, 2026

Acceptance Date

August 10, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 9 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.46876/ja.2000519

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA37NJ43KL

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Doğan, Y. L. (2026). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği. Journal of Agriculture, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.46876/ja.2000519

AMA

1.Doğan YL. Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği. JOAG. 2026;9(2). doi:10.46876/ja.2000519

Chicago

Doğan, Yadigar Leyla. 2026. “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera Ve Gül Örneği”. Journal of Agriculture 9 (2). https://doi.org/10.46876/ja.2000519.

EndNote

Doğan YL (August 1, 2026) Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği. Journal of Agriculture 9 2

IEEE

[1]Y. L. Doğan, “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği”, JOAG, vol. 9, no. 2, Aug. 2026, doi: 10.46876/ja.2000519.

ISNAD

Doğan, Yadigar Leyla. “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera Ve Gül Örneği”. Journal of Agriculture 9/2 (August 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.46876/ja.2000519.

JAMA

1.Doğan YL. Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği. JOAG. 2026;9. doi:10.46876/ja.2000519.

MLA

Doğan, Yadigar Leyla. “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera Ve Gül Örneği”. Journal of Agriculture, vol. 9, no. 2, Aug. 2026, doi:10.46876/ja.2000519.

Vancouver

1.Yadigar Leyla Doğan. Türkiye’de Ekonomik Öneme Sahip Bazı Kesme Çiçek Türlerinin Üretim Projeksiyonları: Karanfil, Gerbera ve Gül Örneği. JOAG. 2026 Aug. 1;9(2). doi:10.46876/ja.2000519

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Editor in Chief

Barış EREN

Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture, Field Crops and Pasture Production, Agronomy

Co Editor

Fatih DEMIREL

Plant Tissue and Cell Culture, Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture, Cereals and Legumes

Fethi Ahmet ÖZDEMIR

Plant Biochemistry, Plant Biotechnology, Plant Tissue and Cell Culture, Pharmacognosy, Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Adnan AYDIN

Industrial Biotechnology, Genetics, Agricultural Biotechnology, Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture, Industrial Crops

SD

Serap DEMIREL

Plant Pathology, Gene Expression, Animal Cell and Molecular Biology, Phytopathology, Agricultural Biotechnology

Editorial Boards

Fatih DEMIREL

Plant Tissue and Cell Culture, Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture, Cereals and Legumes

Abdurrahim YILMAZ

Agricultural Biotechnology, Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture, Field Crops and Pasture Production, Industrial Crops, Medicinal and Aromatic Plants

Barış EREN

Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture, Field Crops and Pasture Production, Agronomy

Emre SEVINDIK

Plant Biotechnology in Agriculture

Taki DEMIR

Plant Cell and Molecular Biology, Pomology and Treatment, Horticultural Production (Other), Forestry Sciences

Ali KAYGISIZ

Zootechny, Stock Farming and Treatment, Animal Growth and Development, Sheep and Goat Breeding and Treatment

Behcet İNAL

Plant Biotechnology

Mehmet YAMAN

Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences, Horticultural Production, Pomology and Treatment, Agricultural Biotechnology

SD

Serap DEMIREL

Plant Pathology, Gene Expression, Animal Cell and Molecular Biology, Phytopathology, Agricultural Biotechnology

Kamil HALILOĞLU

Plant Biotechnology, Molecular Ecology, Non-Genetically Modified Uses of Biotechnology, Genetically Modified Field Crops and Pasture, Crop and Pasture Breeding