Econometric analysis of the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in Türkiye

Abstract

It is widely accepted that changes in financial risks and developments in the economy directly affect the tourism sector revenues. The purpose of this research is to identify the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth. Inflation (INF), gross domestic product per capita (GDP), unemployment rate (UNE) and exchange rate (ER) variables are used in the analysis. The study employs Generalized Linear model (GLM-logit) for identifying the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in Türkiye by using quarterly data including the period from 2012-1 to 2024-2. Kolmogorov Smirnov test is used for normality of parameters. Spearman’s rho and year controlled partial correlation analysis are applied for correlations. Research findings reveal that there is no causality relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth. Inflation variable is the only most effective factor for economy and tourism revenues.

Keywords

• Tourism revenues
• Economic growth
• Generalized linear model
• Türkiye

Türkiye’de turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin ekonometrik analizi

Abstract

Finansal risklerdeki değişimlerin ve ekonomideki gelişmelerin turizm sektörü gelirlerini doğrudan etkilediği yaygın olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu araştırmanın amacı turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmektir. Analizde enflasyon (INF), kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GDP), işsizlik oranı (UNE) ve döviz kuru (ER) değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, 2012-1 ve 2024-2 dönem aralığını içeren üç aylık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye'de turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek için Genelleştirilmiş Doğrusal Model’den (GLM-logit) kullanılmıştır. Parametrelerin normalliği için Kolmogorov Smirnov testinden yararlanılmıştır. Korelasyonlar için Spearman’ın rho ve yıl kontrollü kısmi korelasyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma bulguları, turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ekonomi ve turizm gelirleri üzerinde en etkili tek faktör ise enflasyon değişkenidir.

Keywords

• Turizm gelirleri
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Genelleştirilmiş doğrusal model
• Türkiye

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışma etik beyan gerektirmemektedir.

References

1. Akkemik, K. A. (2012). Assessing the importance of international tourism for the Turkish economy: A cocial accounting matrix analysis. Tourism Management, 33, 709-301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.09.002
2. Arıca, F., & Gündoğdu, İ.M., (2021). Turizm gelirleri-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. International Journal of Social, Humanities and Administrative Science. 7(45), 1928-1936. http://dx.doi.org/10.31589/JOSHAS.750 71
3. Bahar, O. & Bozkurt, K. (2010). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), 255-265.
4. Balcilar, M., Aghazadeh, S., & Ike, G.N. (2020). Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries. Tourism Economics,27(5), 971-990.
5. Brau, R. Lanza, A., & Pigliaru, F. (2003). How fast are the tourism countries growing? The cross-country evidence. Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper, 85, 1-33.
6. Cannonier, C., & Burke, M. G. (2017). Tourism and financial development in small states: Evidence from Caribbean countries. Tourism Economics, 23(6), 1369-1377.
7. Chen, S., Ning, Y., Wang, L., & Wang, S. (2023). Research on the factors influencing tourism revenue of Shandong province in China based on uncertain regression analysis. Mathematics, 11(4490), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11214490
8. Chiu, Y., & Yeh, L. (2016). The threshold effects of the tourism-led growth hypothesis: Evidence from a cross-sectional model. Journal of Travel Research, 56(5), 625-637. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516650938

9. Cil, N.Y. (2006). Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerinin ekonomik büyümeye etkisinin testi: Yapısal kırılma ve nedensellik analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7(2), 162-171. http://dx.doi.org/10.31671/dogus.2019.249
10. Çağlayan, E., Şak, N., & Karymshakov, K. (2012). Relationship between tourism and economic growth: A panel Granger causality approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2(5):518-529.
11. Dincer, M.Z., Istanbullu Dincer, F., & Ustaoglu, M. (2015). Reel effective exchange rate volatilities impact on tourism sector in Turkey: An empirical analysis of 2003-2014. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 1000-1008. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00352-4
12. Du, D., Lew, A.A., & Ng, P.T. (2016). Tourism and economic growth. Journal of Travel Research, 55(4), 454-464. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047287514563167
13. Erdinç, Z., & Aydınbaş, G. (2020). Factors affecting international tourism revenues. Journal of Current Researches on Social Sciences, 10(4), 709-726.
14. Eryiğit, M., Kotil, E., & Eryiğit, R. (2010). Factors affecting international tourism flows to Turkey: A gravity model approach, Tourism Economics, 16(3), 585–595. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010792278374
15. Euromonitor (2023). https://www.euromonitor.com/press/press-releases/dec-2023/euromonitor-internationals-report reveals- worlds-top-100-city-destinations-for-2023 (Erişim Tarihi: 20/10/2024).
16. Gamage, N., Kumara, S., Kumudumali, S.H.T., & Otamurodov, S. (2020). The nexus between tourism and economic growth: A systematic literature review and future research directions. MPRA Paper, 104086, 1-25.
17. Gokovalı, U. (2010). Contribution of tourism to economic growth in Turkey. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(1), 139-153. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2010.9687095
18. Govdeli, T., & Direkci, T.B. (2017). The Relationship between tourism and economic growth: OECD countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(4), 104-113. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v6-i4/3489
19. Hepaktan, C.E., & Çınar, S. (2010). Turizm sektörünün Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkileri. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi S.B.E., 8(2), 135-154.
20. Huseynli, N. (2022). Econometric analysis of the relationship between tourism revenues, inflation and economic growth: The case of Morocco and South Africa. African Journal of Hospitality Tourism and Leisure, 11(1), 135-146. http://dx.doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.216
21. Irani, F., Athari, S.A., & Hadood, A.A.A. (2021): The Impacts of country risk, global economic policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic factors on the Turkish tourism industry. International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration, 23(6), 1242-1265. https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480.2021.1935393
22. Katırcıoğlu, S.T. (2009). Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.004
23. Khalid, U., Okafor, L.E., & Shaifullah, M. (2019). The effects of economic and financial crises on international tourist flows: A cross-country analysis. Journal of Travel Research. 59(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287519834360
24. Khandaker, S., & Islam, S.Z. (2017). International tourism demand and macroeconomic factors. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(5), 389-393.
25. König, M., & Winkler, A. (2020). Monitoring in real time: Cross-country evidence on the COVID-19 impact on GDP growth in the first half of 2020. Intereconomics,, 55(4), 132-153.
26. Liu, L., Jirakom, S., & Liu, J.L. (2017). The analysis of macroeconomic factors affecting the international tourist arrivals in Thailand Miss. 6th International Conference on Studies in Education, Economics, Business, and Law (SEEBL-17), 139- 142. https://doi.org/10.17758/EAP.DIRH0717212
27. Maden, S.I., Bulgan, G., Yıldırım, S. (2019). The effect of tourism sector on economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey. Journal of Yasar University, 2019, 14(55), 215-225. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.529762
28. Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2009). On the causality between tourism growth and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 5(25), 73-81.
29. Özer, M.O. (2021). Tourism and economic growth in Turkey: Fourier approach. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 11(1), 29-43. 72 Journal of Applied Tourism Research, 5(2), 2024
30. Papagianni, E., Evgenidis, A., Tsagkanos, A., & Megalooikonomou, V. (2024). Tourism Demand in the Face of Geopolitical Risk: Insights From a Cross-Country Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 63(8), 2094–2119. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875231206539
31. Proença, S. & Soukiazis, E. (2008). Tourism as an Economic Growth Factor: A case study for Southern European countries. Tourism Economics, 14(4), https://doi.org/10.5367/000000008786440175
32. Quin, Y., Luo, Y., & Zhang, J. (2018). Research on relationship between tourism income and economic growth based on meta- analysis. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 3(1), 105–114. https://doi.org/10.21042/AMNS.2018.1.00008
33. Rasool, H., Maqbool, S., & Tarique, M. (2021). The relationship between tourism and economic growth among BRICS countries: a panel cointegration analysis. Future Business Journal, 7(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-020-00048- 3
34. Samırkaş, M. and Samırkaş, M. C. (2014). Turizm sektörünün ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye örneği. İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(1), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.24889/ifede.268176
35. Sharma, C., & Khanna, R. (2021). Does global economic policy uncertainty drive tourism demand? A cross-country analysis. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 15(1), 106-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2021.1916510
36. Škare, M., Soriano, D.R., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 163, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469
37. TUİK (2024a). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Turizm-Istatistikleri-IV.-Ceyrek:-Ekim---Aralik,-2023-53661 (Erişim Tarihi: 20/10/2024).
38. TUİK (2024b). ttps://www.turizmdatabank.com/turizm-istatistikleri/turizm-calisan-sayisi-153-milyon/ (Erişim Tarihi 20/10/2024).
39. Tütüncü, A. (2022). Türkiye’de turizm faaliyetlerini belirleyen makroekonomik değişkenlerin karşılaştırmalı analizi. Güncel Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 369-388. https://dx.doi.org/10.32572/guntad.1031521
40. Ulucak, R., Yücel, A. G., & İlkay, S. Ç. (2020). Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model. Tourism Economics, 26, 1394-1414. http://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620901956 Yamak, N., Tanrıöver, B., &
41. Güneysu, F. (2012). Turizm ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Sektör bazında bir inceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2), 205-220.
42. Yavuz, N.Ç. (2006). Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerinin ekonomik büyümeye etkisinin testi: Yapısal kırılma ve nedensellik analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7(2), 162-171
43. Yenisu, E. (2018). Türkiye’de turizm gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: VAR analizi. Ünye İİBF Dergisi, 2(1), 16-37.
44. Yenişehirlioğlu, E., Taşar, İ., & Bayat, T. (2020). Tourism revenue and economic growth relation in Turkey: Evidence of symmetrical, asymmetrical and the Rolling Window regressions. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 41(2), 1-16.
45. Yılmaz, K, Turanlı M. (2023). A Multi-disciplinary investigation of linearization deviations in different regression models. Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 22(3):15-9.
46. Yılmaz, K., & Turanlı, M. (2022). A multi-disciplinary investigation on minimizing linearization deviations in different regression models. Change & Shaping The Future, IV. ASC-2022/Fall Congress ISBN 978-625-8048-99-5
47. Zortuk, M., & Yıldız, A. (2018). E-7 ülkelerinde turizm ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Asimetrik panel nedensellik analizi. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 58, 130-142. building: a comparative study of ski resorts. Tourism Analysis, 27(4), 447-465.