Econometric analysis of the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in Türkiye

Öz

It is widely accepted that changes in financial risks and developments in the economy directly affect the tourism sector revenues. The purpose of this research is to identify the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth. Inflation (INF), gross domestic product per capita (GDP), unemployment rate (UNE) and exchange rate (ER) variables are used in the analysis. The study employs Generalized Linear model (GLM-logit) for identifying the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in Türkiye by using quarterly data including the period from 2012-1 to 2024-2. Kolmogorov Smirnov test is used for normality of parameters. Spearman’s rho and year controlled partial correlation analysis are applied for correlations. Research findings reveal that there is no causality relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth. Inflation variable is the only most effective factor for economy and tourism revenues.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism revenues
• Economic growth
• Generalized linear model
• Türkiye

Türkiye’de turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin ekonometrik analizi

Öz

Finansal risklerdeki değişimlerin ve ekonomideki gelişmelerin turizm sektörü gelirlerini doğrudan etkilediği yaygın olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu araştırmanın amacı turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmektir. Analizde enflasyon (INF), kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GDP), işsizlik oranı (UNE) ve döviz kuru (ER) değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, 2012-1 ve 2024-2 dönem aralığını içeren üç aylık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye'de turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek için Genelleştirilmiş Doğrusal Model’den (GLM-logit) kullanılmıştır. Parametrelerin normalliği için Kolmogorov Smirnov testinden yararlanılmıştır. Korelasyonlar için Spearman’ın rho ve yıl kontrollü kısmi korelasyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma bulguları, turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ekonomi ve turizm gelirleri üzerinde en etkili tek faktör ise enflasyon değişkenidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm gelirleri
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Genelleştirilmiş doğrusal model
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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