Suriye’deki Çatışmalar ve Ekonomik Kalkınma: Ekonomik Göstergeler Çatışmayı Öngörmeye Yardımcı Olabilir miydi?

Year 2021, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 1 - 16, 30.09.2021

Ahmet Yılmaz Ata , Mohamed Abdulkarim

https://doi.org/10.53280/jer.917198

Abstract

Bu makale, ekonomik kalkınma göstergeleri üzerinden iki bin on birde Suriye'de başlayan çatışmaların tahmin edilip edilemeyeceğini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu makale, ekonomik kalkınmanın toplumu istikrara kavuşturmadaki rolünü değerlendirmek için iki bin on birdeki çatışmadan önce Suriye ekonomisinin mevcut tarihsel ekonomik kalkınma göstergelerini analiz etmektedir. Bahsedilen bu göstergelerle ilgili resmi istatistiklerin gözden geçirilmesi ve orta gelirli ülkelerle kıyaslanması, kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH), hükümet harcamaları, enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve insani gelişme endeksindeki (IGE) yıllık büyümenin iki bin on birden önce endişe verici seviyelerde olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak, incelenen bütün bu ekonomik kalkınma göstergeleri çatışmayı öngörmeye yardımcı olmaktadır.

Keywords

Ekonomik Kalkınma, Ekonomik Büyüme, Suriye

Syrian Conflict and The Economic Development: Did the Economic Indicators Predict the Conflict?

Abstract

This paper aims at exploring whether the economic development indicators could have predicted the conflict in Syria in 2011. To evaluate the role of economic development in stabilizing the society, this paper analyses the available historical economic development indicators for the Syrian economy before the conflict in 2011. Reviewing the available official statistics about aforementioned indicators and benchmarking them against middle-income countries reveal that the annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the government expenditure, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and human development index (HDI) were at alarming levels before 2011. This paves the way to the 2011 conflict in Syria.

Keywords

Economic Development, Economic Growth, Syrıa

References

• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2013). Why Nations Fall: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. Profile Books LTD, 529 Page.
• Aitken, A. (2019). Measuring Welfare Beyond GDP, National Institute Economic Review, 249(1), R3-R16.
• Anand S. & Sen A. (2000). The Income Component of the Human Development Index, Journal of Human Development, 1(1), 83-106, DOI:10.1080/14649880050008782.
• Becsi, Z (1994). Indicators of the General Price Level and Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, 27-39.
• Berber M. (2015). İktisadi Büyüme ve Kalkınma, DERYA Kitabevi: Trabzon.
• Bhargava, A., Jamison, T. D., Lau, L. & Murray, C. (2001). Modeling the Effects of Health on Economic Growth, Journal of Health Economics, 20(3), 423-440.
• Bhargava, A. (2001). Nutrition, Health, and Economic Development: Some Policy Priorities, Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 22(2), 173-177.
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. & Sevilla, M. (2004). The effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach, World Development, 32(1), 1-13.
• Bobkov, V. N. & Veredyuk, O. V. (2013). Impact of Employment Instability on Socio-economic Position of Employees, The Economy of Region, 35-43, doi:10.17059/2013-4-3.
• Brueckner, M., Dabla-Norris, E. & Gradstein, M. (2014). National Income and its Distribution. IMF Working Papers.
• Byrd, M. W., (2011). Education, Economic Growth, and Social Stability: Why the Three Are Inseparable, The Hidden crisis: armed conflict and education; EFA global monitoring report, https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000190743 .
• Cohen E. (2016). From Arab Spring to Economic Winter – Examination of the Relationship Between Politics and Economics as Evident in the Syrian Civil War During 2011-2015, Journal of International Studies, 9(1), 9-26, DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2016/9-1/1.
• Council of Economic Advisers Issue Brief. (2015). A Better Measure of Economic Growth: Gross Domestic Output (GDO).
• Cravino, J.& Haltenhof, S. E. (2017). Real Exchange Rates, Income Per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares, (No. w23705), National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Delalibera, B.R. & Ferreira, P.C. (2019). Early Childhood Education and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 98, 82-104.
• Fayzi, S., Naderkhani, Z. & Zolfaghari, A. (2015). An Analysis of Social Stability and Its Determining Factors among Rural Women in Iran, Quest Journals, Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Science, 3(5), 1-8, ISSN(Online): 2321-9467.
• Fertig, L. (1975). The Political Costs of Price Inflation, Foundation for Economic Education, https://fee.org/articles/the-political-costs-of-price-inflation/ (Accessed Date: 14.12.2020).
• German, D. & Latkin, C.A. (2012). Social Stability and Health: Exploring Multidimensional Social Disadvantage. Journal of Urban Health, 89(1), 19-35.
• Gobat, J. & Kostial, K. (2016). Syria's Conflict Economy. IMF Working Papers, 16(123).
• Ivic, M. (2015). Economic Growth and Development. Journal of Process Management-New Technologies International, 3(1), 55-62.
• Khaddam, M. (2013). The economic basis of the Syrian crisis, The Revolution's Background: Syrian Studies, Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, Arabic Edition, pp 71-94.
• Liu, A. (2016). Why Economic Development Matters? Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/03/07/why-economic-developmentmatters/ (Accessed date:18.11.2020).
• Loizides, J. & Vamvoukas, G. (2005). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing. Journal of Applied Economics, 8(1), 125-152, DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2005.12040621.
• Mankiw, N.G (2013). Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers, Eighth Edition.
• Marzouk S. (2013). Lost Development in Syria, The Revolution's Background: Syrian Studies. Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, Arabic Edition, 35-70.
• Nafziger, E. W. (2006). Economic Development, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
• Nolan, B., Roser, M. & Thewissen, S. (2016). GDP Per Capita Versus Median Household Income: What Gives Rise to Divergence Over Time? LIS Working Paper Series.
• Noorbakhsh F. (1998). The Human Development Index: Some Technical Issues and Alternative Indices, Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 10, 589-605.
• Saifan, S. (2013). Income Distribution Policies and Their Role in the Social Explosion in Syria, The Revolution's Background: Syrian Studies. Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, Arabic Edition, 95-146.
• Smith K. (2001). Comparing Economic Performance in the Presence of Diversity, Science and Public Policy, 28(4), 267–276.
• Smith, Todd (2013). Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest in Africa, Climate Change and African Political Stability Program, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/165516/researchbrief%20no%2011_final.pdf (Access date: 10.01.2021).
• Son H. (2009). A Cross-Country Analysis of Achievements and Inequities in Economic Growth and Standards of Living, ADB Economics, Working Paper Series, No 159.
• Stiglitz, J. (2017). Income Inequality and Social, Economic, and Political Instability, World Government Summit, Dubai.
• Stockhammer, E., Hochreiter, H. & Steiner, K. (1997). The index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) as an Alternative to GDP in Measuring Economic Welfare: The Results of the Austrian (revised) ISEW Calculation 1955-1992". Ecological Economics, 21, 19-34.
• Stockwell E. (1960). The Measurement of Economic Development, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume 8, Number 4, Part 1.
• Tabassam, A.H., Hashmi, S.H. & Rehman, F.U. (2016). Nexus Between Political Instability and Economic Growth in Pakistan, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 230, 325-334.
• Tsertseil, J.S., Kookueva, V.V. & Laptev, S.V. (2017). Assessment of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Investment in Higher Education. Journal of Economic & Management Perspectives, 11(4), 305-311.
• UNDP (United Nation Development Program) (2020), http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/humandevelopment-index-hdi , (Access date: 12.12.2020).
• World Development Indicator, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-developmentindicators?savedlg=1&l=en# (Access Date: 12.12.2020).
• Wu, S.Y., Tang, J.H & Lin, E.S. (2010). The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: How Sensitive to the Level of Development? Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(6), 804-817, ISSN 0161-8938, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.05.011