COULOMB STRESS ANALYSIS OF KOCAELİ AND SURROUNDINGS

Abstract

17 August 1999, Mw = 7.6 Kocaeli Earthquake, revealed the possibility of producing a great earthquake in the North Anatolian Fault extending into the Marmara Sea and the importance of the Earthquake Risk and Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Kocaeli city and all Marmara Region. The earthquakes that occur due to the movement that develops in the study area change the stress from time to time and accordingly it enables to investigate the stress in this region. Investigation of Coulomb stress changes can be used to determine the location where stress increases and decreases due to the aftershock and main earthquakes. Besides, earthquake and fault related to allow connection between other faults and earthquakes in the region and to determine places where earthquakes will occur in the future. In this study, Coulomb stress analysis was applied in Kocaeli and the results obtained were interpreted. Earthquakes occurred in the Marmara region between 1990 and 2016 using the Coulomb program. 6 fault model were made in the Marmara Sea and Coulomb stress changes of the faults were revealed. The Coulomb stress analysis using the earthquake and fault parameters in the models show the results of increase and decrease of stress in and around Marmara sea.

Keywords

• Coulomb,Stress Analysis,Earthquake,Kocaeli

KOCAELİ VE ÇEVRESİ İÇİN COULOMB GERİLME ANALİZİ

Abstract

17 Ağustos 1999, Mw=7.6 büyüklüğündeki Kocaeli depremi, Marmara Denizi içine uzanan Kuzey Anadolu Fayının büyük bir deprem üretme olasılığını ve Marmara Bölgesi için Deprem Riski ve Sismik Tehlike analizinin önemini ortaya çıkarmıştır. Çalışma alanında gelişen hareketlenmeye bağlı olarak oluşan depremler zaman zaman gerilmeyi değiştirmekte ve buna bağlı olarak bu bölgede oluşacak gerilimi incelemeye olanak sağlamaktadır. Coulomb gerilme değişimlerinin hesaplanmasıyla artçı depremler ve ana depremlere bağlı olarak meydana gelen gerilme artışı ve gerilmenin azaldığı yerler belirlenebilmektedir. Ayrıca deprem ve fay ilişkisi kurularak bölgedeki diğer fay ve depremler arasında bağlantı kurulmasına ve gelecekte deprem oluşacak yerlerin belirlenmesine imkan vermektedir. Bu çalışma kapsamında, Kocaeli’nde Coulomb gerilme analizi uygulanmış ve elde edilen sonuçlar yorumlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Coulomb programı kullanılarak 1990-2016 yılları arasında Marmara bölgesinde meydana gelen depremler kullanılmıştır. Marmara denizinde 6 adet model oluşturulup fayların Coulomb gerilme değişimleri ortaya konmuştur. Modellerde deprem ve fay parametrelerinin kullanıldığı Coulomb gerilmesi hesaplamaları ile gerilme artışının ve azalmasının Marmara denizinde ve çevresinde gösterdiği sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Coulomb,Gerilme Analizi,Deprem,Kocaeli

References

1. Adatepe, F.M., 1988. Marmara Denizi Jeofizik Verilerinin Değerlendirilmesi. İ.Ü. Deniz Bilimleri ve Coğrafya Enstitüsü, Doktora Tezi, İstanbul (Türkçe).
2. Ambraseys, N.N., Jackson, J.A., 2000. Seismicity of Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500, Geophys J Int, 141, F1–F6.
3. Ambraseys, N. 2001. The earthquake of 10 July 1894 in the Gulf of Izmit (Turkey) and its relation to the earthquake of 17 August 1999. Journal of Seismology. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 5 (1), s. 117–128. doi:10.1023/A:1009871605267. ISSN 1573-157X.
4. Anderson, E. M., 1951. The dynamics of faulting and dyke formation with application to Britain, Oliver & Boyd, Edinburgh, 206 p.
5. Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Hubert, A. & Barka, A., 1999. Westward propagation of the North Anatolian Fault into the northern Aegean: timing and kinematics, Geology, 27, 267–270.
6. Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Navarro, S., King, G., Barka, A., 2002. Asymmetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault? Terra Nova, 14, 80–86.
7. Barka, A., Kadinsky Cade, K., 1988. Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity. Tectonics, 7, No:3, 663-684.
8. Becel, A., Laigle, M., Voogd, B., Hirn, A., Taymaz, T., 2009. Moho, crustal architecture and deep deformation under the North Marmara Trough, from the SEISMARMARA Leg 1 offshore-onshore reflection-refraction survey, Tectonophyics, 467, 1–21.

9. Carton, H., 2005. Etudes tectonics en Mediterranee orientale par analyse de donn´ees de sismique reflexion: Mer de Marmara Bassin de Cinarcık et merge du Liban, PhD thesis, Institute De Physique Du Globe De Paris.
10. Carton, H., Sing, S.C., Party, 2007. Three dimensional Seismic imaging of active pull- 74 Yerbilimleri apart basin: The Cınarcık Basin along the North Anatolian Fault, J. Geophys. Res., 112, doi:10.1029/2006JB004548.
11. Chinery, M. A., 1963. The stres changes that accompany strike-slip faulting. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 53, 921-932.
12. Crampin, S., Evans, R., 1986. Neotectonics of the Marmara Sea region of Turkey. J.Geol. Soc. London, 143, 343-346.
13. Çakır, Z., A. Barka, E. Evren, 2003. Coulomb stress interactions and the 1999 Marmara Earthquake sequence, Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 12, 91-103.
14. Das, S. ve Scholz, C.H., 1981. Off-fault aftershock clusters caused by shear stress increase. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 5, 1669-1675.
15. Delouis, B., Lundgren, P., Salichon, J. and Giardini, D., 2000. Joint inversion of InSAR and teleseismic data for the slip history of the 1999 Izmit (Turkey) earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 3389-3392.
16. Demirbag, E., Rangin, C., Le Pichon X. & Şengör, A.M.C., 2003. Investigation of the tectonics of the Main Marmara Fault by means of deep-towed seismic data, Tectonophysics, 361, 1–19.
17. Emre, Ö. , Duman, T.Y., Özalp, S., Elmacı, H., Olgun, Ş. ve Şaroğlu, F. 2013. 1/1.250.000 Ölçekli Türkiye Diri Fay Haritası, Maden Tetkik ve Arama Genel Müdürlüğü Özel Yayınlar Serisi-, Ankara, Türkiye.
18. Erdik, M., Demircioğlu, M., Sesetyan, K., Durukal E., Siyahi, B., 2004. Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 24, 605–631.
19. Harris, R.A. ve Simpson, R.W., 1992. Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake, Nature, 360, 251-254.
20. Harris, R. A.,1998. Stress triggers, stress shadows and implications for seismic hazards, Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 24347-24358.
21. Hubert, A., King, G.C.P., Armijo, A., Meyer, B. and Papanastassiou, D., 1996. Fault re-activation, stress interaction and rupture propagation of the 1981 Corinth earthquake sequence, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 142, 573-585.
22. Imren C., Le Pichon, X., Rangin C., Demirbağ E., Ecevitoğlu B., Görür N., 2001. The Anatolian fault within the Sea of Marmara: A new interpretation based on multi- channel seismic and multi-beam bathymetry data. Earth Planet. Sci. Letter, 186, 143-158.
23. Kılıç C.,A., ve Kalyoncuoğlu Ü.Y.,2015. İzmir ili ve Çevresi için Coulomb Gerilme Değişimi ve Depremselliğinin Bölgesel Dağılımı. 3. Türkiye Deprem Mühendisliği ve Sismoloji Konferansı 14-16 Ekim 2015 ,DEÜ,İZMİR.
24. King, G. C. P., Stein, R. S. ve Lin, J., 1994. Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bulletin of Seismic Society of America, 84, 935– 953.
25. King, G.C.P.ve Cocco, M., 2000. Fault interaction by elastic stress changes: new clues from earthquake sequences, Adv. Geophys., 44, 1–38.
26. Laigle, M., Becel, A., de Voogd, B., Hirn, A., Taymaz, T. & Ozalaybey, S., the Members of the SEISMARMARA Leg1, 2008. A first deep seismic survey in the Sea of Marmara: whole crust and deep basins. Earth planet. Sci. Lett., 270, 168–179.
27. Le Pichon, X, Şengör, A.M.C., Taymaz, T., 1999. Büyük Marmara Fayı: niçin, nerede ve ne olabilir? Cumhuriyet Bilim ve Teknik, 661, 8-11.
28. Le Pichon, X., Şengör, A.M.C., Demirbağ, E., 2001. The active main marmara fault, Earth planet. Sci. Lett., 192, 543–560.
29. Le Pichon, X., Chamot-Rooke, N., Rangin, C., Şengör, A.M.C., 2003. The North Anatolian fault in the sea of marmara, J. geophys. Res., 108, doi:1029/2002JB001862.
30. McKenzie, D.P., 1972. Active tectonics of the Mediterranean Region. Geophys. J. Astron. Soc., 30, 109-185.
31. Nalbant, S.S., Hubert, A., King, G.C.P., 1998. Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 103 24469-24486.
32. Nalbant, S.S, Mc Closkey, J. and Steacy, S., 2005. Lessons on the calculation of static stress loading from the 2003 Bingol, Turkey earthquake. Earth And Planetary Scıence Letters, 235 (3-4). pp. 632-640.
33. Okada, Y., 1985. Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bulletin of Seismic Society of America, 75, 1135-1154.
34. Okay, A.İ., Kaşlılar Ö. A., İmren, C., Boztepe G. A., Demirbağ, E., 2000. Geometry of active faults and strike-slip basins in the Marmara Sea, Northwest Turkey: A Multichanel Seismic reflection study. NATO Advanced Research Seminar, Istanbul, Abstracts 20-21. Örgülü, G., 2011.
35. Polat O., Haessler, H., Cisternas, A., Philip, H., Eyidogan, H., Aktar, M., Frogneux, M., Comte, D. and Gurbuz, C., 2002a. The Izmit (Kocaeli) Turkish earthquake of August 17, 1999: Previous seismicity, aftershocks and seismotectonics, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92 (1), 361-375.
36. Polat O., Haessler, H., Cisternas, A., Philip, H. and Eyidogan, H., 2002b. Analysis and interpretation of the aftershock sequence of the August 17, 1999, Izmit (Turkey) earthquake, J. Seism. 6, 287-306.
37. Smith, A.D., Taymaz, T., Oktay, F.Y., Yüce, H., Alpar, B., Başaran, H., Jackson, J.A., Kara, S., Şimşek, M., 1995. Highresolution seismic profiling in the Sea of Marmara (northwest Turkey): Late Quaternary sedimentation and sea-level changes. GSA Buletin, 107/8, 923-936.
38. Stein, R.S., King, G.C.P. and Lin, J., 1992. Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude=7.2 Landers earthquake, Science, 258, 1328-1332.
39. Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich, J.H., 1997. Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594-604.
40. Şengör, A. M. C., 1979. The North Anatolian Transform Fault: Its Age, Offset and Tectonic Significance. Journal of the Geological Society, 136, 263-282.
41. Şengör, A.M.C., 1980. Türkiye’nin Neotektoniğinin Esasları, TJK. Yayınları.
42. Şengör, A.M.C., Canıtez, N., 1982. The North Anatolian Fault. Alpine Mediterranean Geodynamics, Geodynamics Series, 7, 205-216.
43. Şengör, A.M.C., Görür, N., Şaroğlu, F., 1985. Strike-slip Faulting and Related Basin Formation in Zones of Tectonic Escape: Turkey as a Case Study. StrikeSlip Deformation, Basin Formation and Sedimentation:The Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists Special Publication 17, 227-264.
44. Şengör, A.M.C., Tüysüz, O., İmren, C., Sakınç, M., Eyidoğan, H., Görür, N., Le Pichon, X., Rangin, C., 2004. The North Anatolian Fault: A New Look. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 33, 1-75.
45. Taymaz, T., Jackson, J. and Mc Kenzie, D., 1991. Active tectonics of the north and central Aegean Sea. Geoph. J. Int., 106, 433-490.
46. Taymaz, T., 1999. Marmara Bölgesi'nin Aktif Tektoniği: 1999 Gölcük-Düzce Depremleri. İTÜ-VAKIF Dergisi, 30 (Aralık 1999), 32-36.
47. Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Reasenberg, P.A., Dieterich, J.H. and Yoshida, A. 1998. Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw=6.9 Kobe,Japan, Shock:effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. Journal of Geophysical Research 103.Doi:10.1029/98JB00765.issn:0148-0227.
48. Wessel, P., and Smith, W.H.F., 1995. New version of the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT), (EOS Transactions, 1995). 76, p. 329.
49. Wong, H. K., Ludmann, T., Uluğ, A. Görür, N., 1995. The Sea of Marmara: a plate boundary sea in an escape tectonic regime. Tectonophysics, 244, 231-250.
50. Yılmaz Y., Gökaşan E., Erbay AA., 2010. Morphotectonic development of the Marmara Region. Tectonophysics, 488, 51-70.