COULOMB STRESS ANALYSIS OF KOCAELİ AND SURROUNDINGS

Öz

17 August 1999, Mw = 7.6 Kocaeli Earthquake, revealed the possibility of producing a great earthquake in the North Anatolian Fault extending into the Marmara Sea and the importance of the Earthquake Risk and Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Kocaeli city and all Marmara Region. The earthquakes that occur due to the movement that develops in the study area change the stress from time to time and accordingly it enables to investigate the stress in this region. Investigation of Coulomb stress changes can be used to determine the location where stress increases and decreases due to the aftershock and main earthquakes. Besides, earthquake and fault related to allow connection between other faults and earthquakes in the region and to determine places where earthquakes will occur in the future. In this study, Coulomb stress analysis was applied in Kocaeli and the results obtained were interpreted. Earthquakes occurred in the Marmara region between 1990 and 2016 using the Coulomb program. 6 fault model were made in the Marmara Sea and Coulomb stress changes of the faults were revealed. The Coulomb stress analysis using the earthquake and fault parameters in the models show the results of increase and decrease of stress in and around Marmara sea.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Coulomb,Stress Analysis,Earthquake,Kocaeli

KOCAELİ VE ÇEVRESİ İÇİN COULOMB GERİLME ANALİZİ

Öz

17 Ağustos 1999, Mw=7.6 büyüklüğündeki Kocaeli depremi, Marmara Denizi içine uzanan Kuzey Anadolu Fayının büyük bir deprem üretme olasılığını ve Marmara Bölgesi için Deprem Riski ve Sismik Tehlike analizinin önemini ortaya çıkarmıştır. Çalışma alanında gelişen hareketlenmeye bağlı olarak oluşan depremler zaman zaman gerilmeyi değiştirmekte ve buna bağlı olarak bu bölgede oluşacak gerilimi incelemeye olanak sağlamaktadır. Coulomb gerilme değişimlerinin hesaplanmasıyla artçı depremler ve ana depremlere bağlı olarak meydana gelen gerilme artışı ve gerilmenin azaldığı yerler belirlenebilmektedir. Ayrıca deprem ve fay ilişkisi kurularak bölgedeki diğer fay ve depremler arasında bağlantı kurulmasına ve gelecekte deprem oluşacak yerlerin belirlenmesine imkan vermektedir. Bu çalışma kapsamında, Kocaeli’nde Coulomb gerilme analizi uygulanmış ve elde edilen sonuçlar yorumlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Coulomb programı kullanılarak 1990-2016 yılları arasında Marmara bölgesinde meydana gelen depremler kullanılmıştır. Marmara denizinde 6 adet model oluşturulup fayların Coulomb gerilme değişimleri ortaya konmuştur. Modellerde deprem ve fay parametrelerinin kullanıldığı Coulomb gerilmesi hesaplamaları ile gerilme artışının ve azalmasının Marmara denizinde ve çevresinde gösterdiği sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Coulomb,Gerilme Analizi,Deprem,Kocaeli

Kaynakça

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