Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025

Nagehan Reyhan Doğan

doi:10.69494/jirps.2000991

TR EN

Kinsella'yı Yeniden Ele Almak: Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Silah Ticareti Ağında Yoğunlaşma ve Çeşitlenme, 2005-2025

Abstract

Bu çalışma, David Kinsella'nın (2003) uluslararası silah ticaretine ilişkin sosyal ağ analizini günümüze kadar genişletmekte ve öngördüğü piyasalaşmanın gerçekte ne kadar ilerlediğini sorgulamaktadır. 2004-2025 dönemi ve beş ayrı yıla ait kesit (2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 ve 2025) için SIPRI Silah Transferleri Veritabanı kullanılarak, her yıl için yönlendirilmiş, ağırlıklı bir tedarikçi-alıcı ağı oluşturulmuştur. Ağ yoğunluğu, dış derece merkezilik, grup merkezileşmesi ve Herfindahl-Hirschman Endeksi (HHI), tedarikçi yapısının daha dağınık mı yoksa daha yoğun mu olduğunu değerlendirmek için kullanılmıştır. Kinsella'nın aşamalı piyasalaşma beklentisinin aksine, merkezileşme 2005'te 0,36'dan 2025'te 0,54'e yükselmiştir ve HHI paralel olarak yükselmiştir, bu da tedarikçi konsantrasyonunun derinleştiğini göstermektedir. Bu toplam eğilimin altında ikili bir dinamik yatmaktadır: Türkiye ve Güney Kore gibi yeni alt kademe tedarikçilerin girişinin yanı sıra hiyerarşinin en üstünde konsolidasyon - en gözle görülür şekilde Rusya'nın düşüşü -. Bulgular, konsantrasyon ve çeşitlendirmenin tek tip piyasalaşmadan ziyade aynı anda ilerlediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025

Abstract

This study extends David Kinsella’s (2003) social network analysis of the international arms trade into the present, asking how far the marketization he anticipated has in fact proceeded. Using the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database for the 2004–2025 period and five annual cross-sections (2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025), a directed, weighted supplier–recipient network is constructed for each year. Network density, out-degree centrality, group centralization, and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) are used to assess whether the supplier structure has become more dispersed or more concentrated. Contrary to Kinsella’s expectation of progressive marketization, centralization rises from 0.36 in 2005 to 0.54 in 2025 and the HHI rises in parallel, indicating deepening supplier concentration. Beneath this aggregate trend lies a dual dynamic: consolidation at the top of the hierarchy—most visibly the decline of Russia—alongside the entry of new lower-tier suppliers such as Turkiye and South Korea. The findings suggest that concentration and diversification have proceeded simultaneously rather than as uniform marketization.

Keywords

References

Béraud-Sudreau, L., Silva, D. L. de, Kuimova, A., & Wezeman, P. D. (2020). Emerging Suppliers in the Global Arms Trade. SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, (2020/13).
Egeli, S., Güvenç, S., Kurç, Ç., & Mevlütoğlu, A. (2024). From Client to Competitor: The Rise of Turkiye’s Defence Industry. International Institute for Strategic Studies; Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research. https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2024/05/from-client-to-competitor-the-rise-of-turkiyes-defence-industry/
George, M., Djokic, K., Hussain, Z., Wezeman, P. D., & Wezeman, S. T. /SIPRI. (2025). Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2024. SIPRI Fact Sheet.
George, M., Djokic, K., Hussain, Z., Wezeman, P. D., & Wezeman, S. T. /SIPRI. (2026). Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025. SIPRI Fact Sheet.
Kinsella, D. T. (2003). Changing structure of the arms trade: A social network analysis. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1018&context=polisci_fac
Kurç, Ç. (2024). No Strings Attached: Understanding Turkey’s Arms Exports to Africa. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 26(3), 378-395. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2023.2236515
Liang, X., Tian, N., Diego, L. da S., Scarazzato, L., Karim, Z., & Guiberteau Ricard, J. (2026). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025. SIPRI Fact Sheet.
Shepherd, W. G. (1987). Herfindahl index. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, & P. Newman (Eds.), The new Palgrave: A dictionary of economics. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_711-1

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

International Security

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Nagehan Reyhan Doğan ^*
0009-0002-1159-5444
Türkiye

Publication Date

November 3, 2026

Submission Date

July 22, 2026

Acceptance Date

October 20, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: 16

DOI

https://doi.org/10.69494/jirps.2000991

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA28LE62DZ

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Doğan, N. R. (2026). Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025. Journal of International Relations and Political Science Studies, 16. https://doi.org/10.69494/jirps.2000991

AMA

1.Doğan NR. Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025. JIRPSS. 2026;(16). doi:10.69494/jirps.2000991

Chicago

Doğan, Nagehan Reyhan. 2026. “Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025”. Journal of International Relations and Political Science Studies, nos. 16. https://doi.org/10.69494/jirps.2000991.

EndNote

Doğan NR (November 3, 2026) Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025. Journal of International Relations and Political Science Studies 16

IEEE

[1]N. R. Doğan, “Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025”, JIRPSS, no. 16, Nov. 2026, doi: 10.69494/jirps.2000991.

ISNAD

Doğan, Nagehan Reyhan. “Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025”. Journal of International Relations and Political Science Studies. 16 (November 3, 2026). https://doi.org/10.69494/jirps.2000991.

JAMA

1.Doğan NR. Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025. JIRPSS. 2026. doi:10.69494/jirps.2000991.

MLA

Doğan, Nagehan Reyhan. “Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025”. Journal of International Relations and Political Science Studies, no. 16, Nov. 2026, doi:10.69494/jirps.2000991.

Vancouver

1.Nagehan Reyhan Doğan. Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025. JIRPSS. 2026 Nov. 3;(16). doi:10.69494/jirps.2000991

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Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025

Kinsella'yı Yeniden Ele Almak: Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Silah Ticareti Ağında Yoğunlaşma ve Çeşitlenme, 2005-2025

Abstract

Keywords

Kinsella Revisited: Concentration and Diversification in the Post-Cold War Arms Trade Network, 2005–2025

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite

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Ethical Principles and Publication Policy

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