Türkiye'nin Güneydoğu Bölgesinde Kuraklık Şiddetinin Trend Analizi

Abstract

İklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu pek çok sorundan biri olan kuraklığın incelenmesi, su kullanımının ve su kaynaklarının planlanmasını sağlar. Kuraklık parametrelerinden biri olan kuraklık şiddetinin artışı veya azalışı kuraklıktan dolayı ortaya çıkabilecek sonuçların önceden tespiti açısından önemli bir bilgi kaynağıdır. Bu çalışmada, 1960'tan 2022'ye kadar Dicle Nehri havzasındaki dört istasyonun uzun süreli yağış verilerini kullanarak Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ile 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12-aylık zaman periyotları için kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Kuraklık süresi ve şiddeti serileri kuraklık indeks değerlerinden elde edilmiş ve kuraklık şiddet serilerinin eğilimleri Mann-Kendall (MK) ve Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi (ITA) testleri ile hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre ITA testi MK testine nazaran kuraklık şiddeti serilerindeki eğilimlerin tespitinde daha hassas olduğu görülmüştür. MK testine göre kuraklık önemli bir artış veya azalış göstermemiştir. Buna karşılık, ITA testine göre kuraklık Siirt ve Batman istasyonlarında sırasıyla 1-ve 12-aylık, Diyarbakır istasyonunda ise 1- ve 12 aylık ölçeklerde artış göstermiştir. Mardin istasyonunda tüm zaman dilimlerinde kuraklık artış göstermiştir.

Keywords

• Kuraklık analizi
• Trend analizi
• Kuraklık şiddeti
• Standart Yağış İndeksi
• Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi
• Mann-Kendall

Trend Analysis of Drought Severity in Southeast Region of Türkiye

Abstract

The study of drought, one of the many problems caused by climate change, enables the planning of water use and water resources. The increase or decrease in drought severity, which is one of the drought parameters, is an important source of information in terms of predetermining the consequences that may arise due to drought. In this study, drought analysis was conducted for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time periods with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) using long-term precipitation data of four stations in the Tigris River basin from 1960 to 2022. Drought duration and severity series were obtained from drought index values, and the trends of drought severity series were calculated with Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) tests. According to the results, the ITA test was found to be more sensitive in detecting trends in drought severity series compared to the MK test. According to the MK test, drought did not show a significant increase or decrease. On the other hand, according to the ITA test, drought increased at 1- and 12-month scales at Siirt and Batman stations, respectively, and at 1- and 12-month scales at Diyarbakır station. Drought increased in all time periods at Mardin station.

Keywords

• Drought analysis
• Trend analysis
• Drought severity
• Standard Precipitation Index
• Innovative Trend Analysis
• Mann-Kendall

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