Türkiye'nin Güneydoğu Bölgesinde Kuraklık Şiddetinin Trend Analizi

Öz

İklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu pek çok sorundan biri olan kuraklığın incelenmesi, su kullanımının ve su kaynaklarının planlanmasını sağlar. Kuraklık parametrelerinden biri olan kuraklık şiddetinin artışı veya azalışı kuraklıktan dolayı ortaya çıkabilecek sonuçların önceden tespiti açısından önemli bir bilgi kaynağıdır. Bu çalışmada, 1960'tan 2022'ye kadar Dicle Nehri havzasındaki dört istasyonun uzun süreli yağış verilerini kullanarak Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ile 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12-aylık zaman periyotları için kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Kuraklık süresi ve şiddeti serileri kuraklık indeks değerlerinden elde edilmiş ve kuraklık şiddet serilerinin eğilimleri Mann-Kendall (MK) ve Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi (ITA) testleri ile hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre ITA testi MK testine nazaran kuraklık şiddeti serilerindeki eğilimlerin tespitinde daha hassas olduğu görülmüştür. MK testine göre kuraklık önemli bir artış veya azalış göstermemiştir. Buna karşılık, ITA testine göre kuraklık Siirt ve Batman istasyonlarında sırasıyla 1-ve 12-aylık, Diyarbakır istasyonunda ise 1- ve 12 aylık ölçeklerde artış göstermiştir. Mardin istasyonunda tüm zaman dilimlerinde kuraklık artış göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık analizi
• Trend analizi
• Kuraklık şiddeti
• Standart Yağış İndeksi
• Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi
• Mann-Kendall

Trend Analysis of Drought Severity in Southeast Region of Türkiye

Öz

The study of drought, one of the many problems caused by climate change, enables the planning of water use and water resources. The increase or decrease in drought severity, which is one of the drought parameters, is an important source of information in terms of predetermining the consequences that may arise due to drought. In this study, drought analysis was conducted for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time periods with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) using long-term precipitation data of four stations in the Tigris River basin from 1960 to 2022. Drought duration and severity series were obtained from drought index values, and the trends of drought severity series were calculated with Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) tests. According to the results, the ITA test was found to be more sensitive in detecting trends in drought severity series compared to the MK test. According to the MK test, drought did not show a significant increase or decrease. On the other hand, according to the ITA test, drought increased at 1- and 12-month scales at Siirt and Batman stations, respectively, and at 1- and 12-month scales at Diyarbakır station. Drought increased in all time periods at Mardin station.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Drought analysis
• Trend analysis
• Drought severity
• Standard Precipitation Index
• Innovative Trend Analysis
• Mann-Kendall

Kaynakça

1. Achite, M., Simsek, O., Adarsh, S., Hartani, T., & Caloiero, T. (2023). Assessment and monitoring of meteorological and hydrological drought in semiarid regions: The Wadi Ouahrane basin case study (Algeria). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 130, 103386.
2. Aksu, H., Cetin, M., Aksoy, H., Yaldiz, S. G., Yildirim, I., & Keklik, G. (2022). Spatial and temporal characterization of standard duration-maximum precipitation over Black Sea Region in Turkey. Natural Hazards, 1-27.
3. Alexandersson, H. (1986). A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661-675.
4. Alsenjar, O. , Aksu, H. & Çetin, M. (2022). The Use of Some Specific Drought Indices to Evaluate Meteorological Drought Events in the Black Sea Region of Turkey . Çukurova Tarım ve Gıda Bilimleri Dergisi, 37 (2) , 261-272 .
5. Banda, V. D., Dzwairo, R. B., Singh, S. K., & Kanyerere, T. (2021). Trend analysis of selected hydro-meteorological variables for the Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(7), 3099-3123.
6. Buishand, T. A. (1982). Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of hydrology, 58(1-2), 11-27.
7. Caloiero, T. (2018). SPI trend analysis of New Zealand applying the ITA technique. Geosciences, 8(3), 101. Citakoglu, H., & Minarecioglu, N. (2021). Trend analysis and change point determination for hydro-meteorological and groundwater data of Kizilirmak basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145(3-4), 1275-1292.
8. Coşkun, S. (2020). Van gölü kapalı havzasında yağışlarin trend analizi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 8(2), 521-532.

9. Deger, İ. H., Yüce, M. İ., & Musa, E. (2023). An Investigation of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye: Impacts and Trends. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(1), 126-139.
10. Dikici, M. (2020). Drought analysis with different indices for the Asi Basin (Turkey). Scientific Reports, 10(1), 20739.
11. Ebru, E., & Necati, A. (2012). Homogeneity and trend analysis of hydrometeorological data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2012.
12. Elzeiny, R., Khadr, M., Zahran, S., & Rashwan, E. (2019). Homogeneity Analysis of Rainfall Series in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Engineering Research, 3, 46-53.
13. Ercan, B., & Yüce, M. I. (2017). Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables of Kızılırmak Basin. Nevşehir Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 6, 333-340.
14. Eslamian, S., Ostad-Ali-Askari, K., Singh, V. P., Dalezios, N. R., Ghane, M., Yihdego, Y., & Matouq, M. (2017). A review of drought indices. Int. J. Constr. Res. Civ. Eng, 3, 48-66.
15. Gumus, V., Avsaroglu, Y., & Simsek, O. (2022). Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods. Journal of Earth System Science, 131(1), 34.
16. Gümüş, V., Avşaroğlu, Y., Şimşek, O., & Dinsever, L. D. (2023). Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey. Geofizika, 40(1), 1-25.
17. Gumus, V., Dinsever, L. D., & Avsaroglu, Y. (2023). Analysis of drought characteristics and trends during 1965–2020 in the Tigris River basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1-17.
18. Hadi, S. J., & Tombul, M. (2018). Long‐term spatiotemporal trend analysis of precipitation and temperature over Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 25(3), 445-455.
19. Hakan, A., Savaş, K., & Osman, Ş. (2010). Trend analysis of hydrometeorological parameters in climate regions of Turkey. Paper presented at the Conference pre release, BALWOIS.
20. Jain, S. K., & Kumar, V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 37-49. Katipoğlu, O. M. (2022). Dicle Havzasındaki Bazı İstasyonlara ait Potansiyel Evapotranspirasyon Verilerinin Trend Analizi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 8(2), 292-304.
21. Kocaoğlu, E., & Çağliyan, A. (2022). Çanakkale Yağiş Gözlem İstasyonlarinin Homojenlik Durumu Ve Yillik Yağişlarin Trend Analizi. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 32(2), 391-408.
22. McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.
23. Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216.
24. Muratoglu, A., & Yuce, M. I. (2012, October). Trend analysis of Tigris River basin stream flow data. In Proceedings of 10th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering (pp. 17-19).
25. Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought (Vol. 30): US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau.
26. Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 20(9), 2011-2026.
27. Pastagia, J., & Mehta, D. (2022). Application of innovative trend analysis on rainfall time series over Rajsamand district of Rajasthan state. Water Supply, 22(9), 7189-7196.
28. Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135.
29. Phuong, D. N. D., Tram, V. N. Q., Nhat, T. T., Ly, T. D., & Loi, N. K. (2020). Hydro-meteorological trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall and innovative-Şen methodologies: a case study. International Journal of Global Warming, 20(2), 145-164.
30. Redmond, K. (2002). The depiction of drought Bull. Am Meteorol Soc, 83, 1143-1147.
31. Salami, A. W., Mohammed, A. A., Abdulmalik, Z. H., & Olanlokun, O. K. (2014). Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables using the Mann-Kendall trend test: Application to the Niger River and the Benue sub-basins in Nigeria. International Journal of Technology, 5(2), 100-110.
32. Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
33. Şen, Z. (2014). Trend identification simulation and application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
34. Şen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127, 939-947.
35. Şen, Z. (2019). Climate change expectations in the upper Tigris River basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137, 1569-1585.
36. Sezen, C., & Partal, T. (2020). Wavelet combined innovative trend analysis for precipitation data in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(11), 1909-1927.
37. Thom, H.C.S., (1958). “A Note on Gamma Distribution”, Monthly Weather Review, 86(4), 117-122,
38. Tokgöz, S., & Partal, T. (2020). Karadeniz Bölgesinde yıllık yağış ve sıcaklık verilerinin yenilikçi şen ve mann-kendall yöntemleri ile trend analizi. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 10(2), 1107-1118.
39. Umar, S., Lone, M., Goel, N., & Zakwan, M. (2022). Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters in the Jhelum River basin, North Western Himalayas. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 148(3-4), 1417-1428.
40. Variance. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 12(4), 367–395.
41. Vincent, L. A., van Wijngaarden, W. A., & Hopkinson, R. (2007). Surface temperature and humidity trends in Canada for 1953–2005. Journal of climate, 20(20), 5100-5113.
42. Von Neumann, J. (1941). Distribution of The Ratio of the Mean Square Successive Difference to the Wilhite, D. A. (2000a). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions.
43. Wilhite, D. A. (2000b). Drought preparedness in the United States: recent progress. Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, 119-131.
44. Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water international, 10(3), 111-120.
45. Xu, K., Yang, D., Xu, X., & Lei, H. (2015). Copula based drought frequency analysis considering the spatio-temporal variability in Southwest China. Journal of Hydrology, 527, 630-640.
46. Yildirim, G., & Rahman, A. (2022). Homogeneity and trend analysis of rainfall and droughts over Southeast Australia. Natural Hazards, 112(2), 1657-1683.
47. Zeybek, M., AHISKA, S., & Yıldız, S. (2016). Dicle Nehri (Türkiye) Oligochaeta (Annelida) faunasının taksonomik açıdan belirlenmesine yönelik bir ön araştırma. Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 33(1), 47-53.