Enerji Denge Modeli Bağlamında Küresel Isınma ve İklim Değişikliği Sorunlarının İncelenmesi: Dünya Enerji Bütçesi ve Radyatif Zorlama Kavramları

Abstract

İklim modelleri, küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında elde edilen verilerin analizi ile iklim değişimlerinin yakın zamanlı gelişimi konusunda tahminlere olanak tanır. Bu çalışmada, küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında kullanılan enerji denge modelinin temelleri ve bu model yardımı ile yapılabilen analizler incelenmektedir. Bu basitleştirilmiş enerji denge modeli, güneşten dünyaya gelen ışıma enerjisinin dünyadan uzaya giden ışınım enerjisi ile dengelenmesi durumunu inceler. Bu bağlamda, küresel ısınmaya etki eden faktörlerin, denge durumu üzerinde etkisi olan birer radyatif (ışınımsal) zorlama olarak incelenmesine imkân sağlar. Böylece çok karmaşık ve dinamik olarak değişen meteorolojik ve jeolojik etmenlere bağlı olan iklim değişiminin, enerji bütçesi temelinde basitleştirilmiş analizlerini mümkün kılar. Bu çalışmada, Stefan-Boltzmann ve Wien Yer Değiştirme gibi temel ışınım kanunları çerçevesinde, güneşten gelen ışıma enerjisinin dünya tarafından emilim ve yansıma oranları dünya atmosferinden uzaya enerji çıkışını sağlayan ve elektromanyetik spektrumun uzun dalga boyunda yer alan atmosferik pencere kavramları incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, insan aktiviteleri ile değişebilme potansiyeli olan Albedo (yansıtabilirlik) radyatif zorlaması ve atmosferdeki CO2 molekülü birikimine bağlı radyatif zorlama etkileri açıklanmıştır. Sunulan temel kavramlar ve modellerin kolay anlaşılabilir olması için açıklayıcı örnekler ve verilere bağlı hesaplama ve analizler sunulmuştur. Bu makalenin küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında bazı temel kavramların açıklandığı eğitsel bir kaynak niteliği taşıması amaçlanmıştır.

Keywords

• İklim modeli
• Küresel ısınma
• Dünya enerji bütçesi
• Radyatif zorlama
• Albedo

A Review of Global Warming and Climate Change Problems in the Context of Energy Balance Model: Concepts of World Energy Budget and Radiative Forcing

Abstract

Climate models enable an analysis of observation data related to global warming and climate changes, and they allow making predictions for near the future progress of climate changes. In this study, basics of the climate model, which is used in the analysis of global warming and climate change topics, and the analyses that can be carried out by using these models, are reviewed. Simplified energy balance model considers the balance state between the incoming solar energy from the sun and the radiation energy outgoing from the earth to space. In this perspective, the model allows considering the factors, which can influence global warming, as radiative forces that are acting on the balance state. Thus enabling simplified analyzes of climate changes based on the energy budget even though the climate changes depend on very complex and dynamically changing meteorological and geological factors. In this study, within the framework of basic radiation laws, such as Stefan-Boltzmann and Wien Displacement, the absorption and reflection rates of the solar radiation by the earth, and the atmospheric window concepts, which provide energy escape from the earth's atmosphere to the space within the long-wavelength of the electromagnetic spectrum, were reviewed. In this context, the radiative forcing due to the Albedo effect and the radiative forcing effects due to the accumulation of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere, which have the potential to alter depending on human activities, were explained. Illustrative examples and observation data-based calculations and analyzes are presented to make basic concepts and presented models easy-to-understand. This article is intended to be a tutorial that explains some basic concepts on the topics of global warming and climate change.

Keywords

• Global warming
• World energy budget
• Radiative forcing
• Albedo

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