A Review of Global Warming and Climate Change Problems in the Context of Energy Balance Model: Concepts of World Energy Budget and Radiative Forcing

Yıl 2024, , 1075 - 1093, 01.09.2024

Burhan Baran , Cemal Keleş , Barış Baykant Alagöz

https://doi.org/10.21597/jist.1473365

Öz

Climate models enable an analysis of observation data related to global warming and climate changes, and they allow making predictions for near the future progress of climate changes. In this study, basics of the climate model, which is used in the analysis of global warming and climate change topics, and the analyses that can be carried out by using these models, are reviewed. Simplified energy balance model considers the balance state between the incoming solar energy from the sun and the radiation energy outgoing from the earth to space. In this perspective, the model allows considering the factors, which can influence global warming, as radiative forces that are acting on the balance state. Thus enabling simplified analyzes of climate changes based on the energy budget even though the climate changes depend on very complex and dynamically changing meteorological and geological factors. In this study, within the framework of basic radiation laws, such as Stefan-Boltzmann and Wien Displacement, the absorption and reflection rates of the solar radiation by the earth, and the atmospheric window concepts, which provide energy escape from the earth's atmosphere to the space within the long-wavelength of the electromagnetic spectrum, were reviewed. In this context, the radiative forcing due to the Albedo effect and the radiative forcing effects due to the accumulation of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere, which have the potential to alter depending on human activities, were explained. Illustrative examples and observation data-based calculations and analyzes are presented to make basic concepts and presented models easy-to-understand. This article is intended to be a tutorial that explains some basic concepts on the topics of global warming and climate change.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global warming, World energy budget, Radiative forcing, Albedo

Enerji Denge Modeli Bağlamında Küresel Isınma ve İklim Değişikliği Sorunlarının İncelenmesi: Dünya Enerji Bütçesi ve Radyatif Zorlama Kavramları

Öz

İklim modelleri, küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında elde edilen verilerin analizi ile iklim değişimlerinin yakın zamanlı gelişimi konusunda tahminlere olanak tanır. Bu çalışmada, küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında kullanılan enerji denge modelinin temelleri ve bu model yardımı ile yapılabilen analizler incelenmektedir. Bu basitleştirilmiş enerji denge modeli, güneşten dünyaya gelen ışıma enerjisinin dünyadan uzaya giden ışınım enerjisi ile dengelenmesi durumunu inceler. Bu bağlamda, küresel ısınmaya etki eden faktörlerin, denge durumu üzerinde etkisi olan birer radyatif (ışınımsal) zorlama olarak incelenmesine imkân sağlar. Böylece çok karmaşık ve dinamik olarak değişen meteorolojik ve jeolojik etmenlere bağlı olan iklim değişiminin, enerji bütçesi temelinde basitleştirilmiş analizlerini mümkün kılar. Bu çalışmada, Stefan-Boltzmann ve Wien Yer Değiştirme gibi temel ışınım kanunları çerçevesinde, güneşten gelen ışıma enerjisinin dünya tarafından emilim ve yansıma oranları dünya atmosferinden uzaya enerji çıkışını sağlayan ve elektromanyetik spektrumun uzun dalga boyunda yer alan atmosferik pencere kavramları incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, insan aktiviteleri ile değişebilme potansiyeli olan Albedo (yansıtabilirlik) radyatif zorlaması ve atmosferdeki CO2 molekülü birikimine bağlı radyatif zorlama etkileri açıklanmıştır. Sunulan temel kavramlar ve modellerin kolay anlaşılabilir olması için açıklayıcı örnekler ve verilere bağlı hesaplama ve analizler sunulmuştur. Bu makalenin küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında bazı temel kavramların açıklandığı eğitsel bir kaynak niteliği taşıması amaçlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İklim modeli, Küresel ısınma, Dünya enerji bütçesi, Radyatif zorlama, Albedo

Kaynakça

• Akpootul, D.O., Nnaemeka, O.C., Fagbemi, S.A., Iliyasu, M.I., Onwubuya, I.O., Salifu S.I. ve Garba, M. (2020). A Comparative Study on Estimation of the Earth‟s Albedo and Its Variation with other Meteorological Parameters between two Tropical Stations in Nigeria. International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering, 6(2).
• Anonim. (2001). „Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth‟s Climate‟, American Geophysical Union. 17 April.
• Anonim. (2024 a). ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Atmospheric Warming - A Single-Layer Atmosphere Model.American Chemical Society. URL: https://climatescienceteaching.org/tool/single-layer-atmosphere-model (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 b). Kızılötesi: Isıtma kanunları. URL: https://www.ceramicx.com/tr/information/support/why-infrared-laws-of-infrared-heating/ (Erişim tarihi: 4 Temmuz, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 c). Albedo Etkisi Nedir? URL: https://bilimgenc.tubitak.gov.tr/makale/albedo-nedir (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 d). Atmospheric Concentration of Carbondioxide.URL: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide-5/download.table (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 e). Radiation Laws. URL: https://mmg.atm.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/radiation.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 4Temmuz, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 f). Clear-Sky Atmospheric Transmission.URL: https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1196762005136392192 (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 g). One-Layer Energy Balance Model. PennState College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, Department of Meteorolgy and Atmospheric Science. URL: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo469/node/198 (Erişim tarihi: 4 Temmuz, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 h). Earth‟s Energy Budget.URL: https://mynasadata.larc.nasa.gov/basic-page/earths-energy-budget (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 i). Earth‟s Energy Budget. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 j). Earth Energy Budget. URL: https://socratic.org/questions/what-is-described-by-the-earth-s-energy-budget (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 k). Global Mean Estimates based on Land and Ocean Data. URL: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 l). Planck yasası. URL: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck_yasas%C4%B1 (Erişim tarihi: 4Temmuz, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 m). Planetary Energy Balance.URL: https://www.ei.lehigh.edu/learners/cc/planetary/planetary1.html (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 n). Radiative Forcing.URL: https://www.britannica.com/science/radiative-forcing (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 o). Radiative Forcing.URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 p). The Atmospheric Window. URL: https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/satellites/absorb (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 r). What is the greenhouse effect?. URL: https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/ (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 s). Yansıtabilirlik. URL: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yansıtabilirlik (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Anonim. (2024 t). Climate model. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model (Erişim tarihi: 14 Haziran, 2024).
• Brown, P.T. ve Caldeira, K. (2017). Greater future global warming inferred from Earth‟s recent energy budget.Nature, 552 (7683), 45–50.
• Carrer, D., Pique, G., Ferlicoq, M., Ceamanos, X. ve Ceschia, E. (2018). What is the potential of cropland albedo management in the fight against global warming? A case study based on the use of cover crops. Environmental Research Letters, 13(4).
• Cotana, F., Rossi, F., Filipponi, M., Coccia, V., Pisello, A.L., Bonamente, E., Petrozzi, A. ve Cavalaglio G. (2014). Albedo control as an effective strategy to tackle Global Warming: A case study.Applied Energy, 130, 641–647.
• Garth W.P. ve C. Martin R.P. (1976).Radiative Processes in Meteorology and Climatology. Elsevier, ISBN 0-444-41444-4.
• Goode, P.R., Qiu, J., Yurchyshyn, V., Hickey, J., Chu, M.C., Kolbe, E., Brown, C.T. ve Koonin S.E. (2001). Earthshine observations of the earth‟s reflectance.Geophysical Research Letters, 28(9), 1671–1674.
• Güler, A.G., Şakirali, E. ve Alakour, A. (2020).Fotovoltaik Panellerde Isı Transfer Analizi. Karabük Üniversitesi, Teknoloji Fakültesi.
• Hori, M., Aoki, T., Tanikawa, T., Hachikubo, A., Sugiura, K., Kuchiki, K. ve Niwano, M. (2013). Modeling angular-dependent spectral emissivity of snow and ice in the thermal infrared atmospheric window. Applied Optics, 52(30), 7243.
• Hou, M., Hu, Y. ve He, Y. (2014). Modifications in vegetation cover and surface albedo during rapid urbanization: a case study from South China. Environmental Earth Sciences, 72(5), 1659–1666.
• Jian, B., Li, J., Wang, G., He, Y., Han, Y., Zhang, M. ve Huang, J. (2018). The Impacts of Atmospheric and Surface Parameters on Long-Term Variations in the Planetary Albedo.Journal of Climate, 8705–8718.
• Jones, A.D., Calvin, K.V., Collins, W.D. ve Edmonds, J. (2015). Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios‟, Climatic Change, 131(4), 691–703.
• Kopp, G. ve Lean, J.L. (2011). A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance.Geophysical Research Letters, 38(1). 1–7.
• Kraus, S.F. (2024). Astronomical Methods and the Terrestrial Climate: An Estimation of the Earth‟s Albedo Based on Self-Obtained Data. Physics Education Today. Challenges in Physics Education. Springer, p.149-159.
• Loeb, N.G., Thorsen T.J., Norris, J.R., Wang, H. ve Su, W. (2018). Changes in Earth‟s energy budget during and after the “Pause” in global warming: An observational perspective.Climate, 6(3).
• Menon, S., Akbari, H., Mahanama, S., Sednev, I. ve Levinson, R. (2010). Radiative forcing and temperature response to changes in urban albedos and associated CO2 offsets‟, Environmental Research Letters, 5(1), 1–11.
• Myhre, G., Highwood, E.J., Shine, K.P. ve Stordal, F. (1998). New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases.Geophysical Research Letters, 25(14), 2715–2718.
• Öztürk, D. (2020) Uzaktan Algılamanın Temel Esasları, Uzaktan Algılama İle Veri Elde Edilmesi Ders Notları, Spektral Etkileşim. Samsun. URL: https://avys.omu.edu.tr/storage/app/public/dozturk/71478/dozturk_ua_ders2.pptx (Erişim tarihi: 21 Nisan, 2024).
• Shine, K.P., Cook, J., Highwood, E.J. ve Joshi, M.M. (2003). An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms, Geophysical Research Letters, 30(20), 1–4.
• Spångmyr, M. (2010). Global effects of albedo change due to urbanization. Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences. Division of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
• Stephens, G.L., O‟Brien, D., Webster, P.J., Pilewski, P., Kato, S. ve Li, J.L. (2015). The albedo of earth.Reviews of Geophysics, 53(1), 141–163.
• Weihs, P., Laimighofer, J., Formayer, H. ve Olefs, M. (2021). Influence of snowmaking on albedo and local radiative forcing in an alpine area. Atmospheric Research, 255(January), 105448.
• Yang, J., Wang, Z.-H. ve Kaloush, K. E. (2015). Environmental impacts of reflective materials: Is high albedo a “silver bullet” for mitigating urban heat island? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 830–843.
• Zhu, Q., Chen, J. ,Wu, L., Huang, Y., Shao, C., Dong, G., Xu, Z. ve Li, X. (2024). Changes in albedo and its radiative forcing of grasslands in East Asia drylands. Ecological Processes 13(17), 1–15.